Running Sets Up the Pass: The 2011 Saints Ground Game Will Let Brees Top the NFL

Before the first regular season game is played, there's always an abundance of opinions as to which teams will represent the AFC and NFC in the Super Bowl. Of course, I have my own prediction. Given the Saints' recent history, my picking them to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLVI should be no big surprise. Here's why: a successful Saints running game will make Drew Brees the NFL's top passer for 2011.

First of all, Drew Brees has been one of the NFL's top QBs for the past five seasons. To illustrate his place among his contemporaries, here are a few basic facts to be aware of: since 2006, Brees leads the NFL in passing yards, having never thrown for less than 4,000 yards. Brees leads in passing attempts, completions and overall completion percentage over that period. He also holds the all-time season completion percentage record of 70.6 percent.

Brees leads the league in 300 yard games with 37, which happens to also be the highest total over a five year period in NFL history. His league leading 155 passing touchdowns is equaled only by Peyton Manning. It's safe to assume that in 2011 Brees will be Brees—aggressive, efficient, productive and relentless. Brees, already a prolific passer, will only improve this year due to the success of the Saints revamped corps of running backs.

The design of the Saints offense is no accident. Having one of the NFL's most potent offenses has been a luxury for Saints coach Sean Payton, who boasts an army of talented role players. The upgraded running game, however, could and should be the foundation of an overwhelmingly dominant Saints offense.

Payton is arguably the NFL's top play caller and adding weapons to his offensive arsenal will undoubtedly enhance his unique creativity and aggressiveness. What does remain to be seen is whether Sean Payton's "pass first" philosophy will hold true for the 2011 season. The Saints' decision to draft Mark Ingram in the first round seems to dictate otherwise. We shall see, but this is what he's working with:

First, the highly productive and reliable veteran Pierre Thomas is once again 100% healthy after undergoing off season ankle surgery. In preseason, he's shown the speed, quickness and power that was lacking after returning from last season's injury. Thomas led the Saints in rushing yards and touchdowns in 2009. The Saints trading up to draft Mark Ingram with their second first round pick (28th) will likely turn out to be 2011 NFL draft's most brilliant chess move.

Ingram adds more than depth; he adds the element of a pure power running back coupled with incredible vision and balance and topped off with breakaway speed and elusiveness. It helps that he plays with a chip on his shoulder. Ingram's display of power at the goal-line, along with his other assets, foreshadows him being an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate.

The acquisition of diminutive yet versatile Darren Sproles from the San Diego Chargers, according to stats, is a clear upgrade over the dearly departed Reggie Bush. Since 2007, no other NFL player has matched Sproles' 8,260 all-purpose yards. His slippery quickness allows him to run between the tackles, beat defenses around the edge, or end up mismatched against a linebacker in coverage. Expect him to bail out Drew Brees often.

Buried at fourth on the depth chart is Joique Bell, acquired last season from the Philadelphia Eagles practice squad. This preseason, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, Bell has shown why the Saints liked his skill set enough to release Lynell Hamilton. He's a powerful downhill running back with good speed, vision and elusiveness. Bell will get significant time in the backfield, the bulk of which will come in the second half of games when his fresh legs can close out against worn down defenses.

Power running back Chris Ivory, who last season led the Saints in rushing yards(716) and touchdowns(5), will begin this season on the Physically Unable to Perform list after undergoing Lisfranc surgery in January and sports hernia surgical repair shortly before training camp began. He will miss the first six weeks before being eligible to rejoin the team. Expect his return to provide strong, rested legs for the second half of a grueling season.

All that fire-power in a versatile and productive ground game will allow Drew Brees plenty of play-action opportunity, situations he thrives in. Comparing how the Saints converted first downs over the last two seasons provides insight to what a solid running game means to the Saints offense. In their 2009 run to Super Bowl XLIV, the Saints converted 115 first downs on the ground and 215 through the air, with Brees having thrown only 11 interceptions.

In contrast, the 2010 Saints converted 94 first downs on the ground and 236 through the air, with Brees having thrown 22 interceptions. The Saints were booted from the playoffs by the Seattle Seahawks who entered the playoffs as the NFL's first franchise to do so with a losing record in the regular season. The starting running backs for the Saints were Reggie Bush and Julius Jones.

The Saints' wide receivers obviously take the lions share of Brees passing yards. Colston (1023), Moore (763), Meachem (638), and Henderson (464), is unchanged from last season when they combined for just shy of 3,000 of Drew Brees' 4620 yards and 21 of Brees' 33 passing touchdowns.

Second year TE Jimmy Graham is set to be a huge impact player this season, improving on his 356 yards and five touchdowns from a season ago. At 6'6", 270lbs, Graham's 4.53 speed makes him a match-up nightmare for strong safeties and smaller cornerbacks. Graham dominates in the red zone and has quickly become Brees' other trusted third down go-to guy behind the sure-handed Lance Moore.

It seems clear that Drew Brees can once again top the NFL in passing, but what matters as much as the personnel is whether Sean Payton can alter his philosophy to capitalize on the multitude of offensive weapons. Given that the NFL has evolved into a pass dominated league, it'll be interesting to see if Sean Payton, of all coaches, can be the one to buck the trend.

I think he will, and we'll see starting tonight against the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers. The Saints get to showcase their new balance on offense, highlighted by dominance in the ground game, at the legendary Lambeau Field. And Brees will just be Brees.