Predicting Every NFL Team's Over/Under Win Total

A reason why the NFL is the most popular sport is because it's the best sport to debate with your friends and colleagues.  Whether it's vying for pride with friends when going at it in fantasy football, to how Tim Tebow is or isn't a franchise quarterback, we can argue about pretty much anything in the NFL.

One constant hot topic of discussion are the over/under win totals that come out of Las Vegas every year. Sports radio talk shows and television programs hotly debate these predictions every year and get a rabid fan response, as each person believes they know the fate of their favorite team.

Every year there seems to be certain teams that are overrated and underrated and 2011 is no different.  Let's take a look at how every team will perform to the expectation they are predicted to have.   

Arizona Cardinals: Win Total 7

Prediction: Even

I know what you're thinking.  The very first pick here and we get neither an over or under, but I think it's a perfect number for the Cardinals, especially with Ryan Williams out for the year.

The team should be better offensively with Kevin Kolb and a happy Larry Fitzgerald, but there are a lot of holes on their defense and almost every other receiver from their 2009 season has left the team. 

Arizona should win three or four games in their division, but I wouldn't expect them to win more than three or four outside of it.  The sad thing is with the NFC West—could seven wins win them the division?

Atlanta Falcons: Win Total 10

Prediction: Over

I think the Falcons are being vastly underrated considering they've made themselves even stronger on offense with the addition of Julio Jones.  I know their playoff drubbing against the Green Bay Packers last year is fresh on many peoples' minds, but the fact is this team went 13-3 last year for good reason; they're very solid.

While I don't think they'll equal their 13-win output, the Falcons have the look of an 11-win team fighting tooth and nail with New Orleans for the NFC South title. 

Baltimore Ravens: Win Total 10.5

Prediction: Under

The Ravens are predicted to be better than the Falcons?  Really?

There is something about this Ravens team I don't like.  Perhaps it's the fact their defense is another year older without any new stars to start taking the load off the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.  Maybe it's the fact the Ravens have been perilously close to the wild-card bubble every year of John Harbaugh's career. 

Whatever the reason, I don't see the Ravens being a major player in the AFC this year.  I do think they'll win nine games, which might get them the sixth seed in the playoffs, but 10.5 wins is asking a lot. 

Buffalo Bills: Win Total 5.5

Prediction: Over

A lot of people don't realize how competitive the Bills were last year despite their 4-12 record.  Did they get blown out in a whole host of games?  Yes. 

However, they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs in overtime and also lost to the Chicago Bears by a field goal.

With a defense being improved and a full year of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, this is a team that should be able to win six or seven games this year.  Sadly for the Bills these days, that would be considered a successful season. 

Carolina Panthers: Win Total 4.5

Prediction: Under

I know there are a lot of people who are very excited about the Cam Newton era in Carolina, but let's get real here.  Newton is just as raw as Tim Tebow and will have to grow into an NFL quarterback.  The team lacks any real star power on defense and the only reliable wide receiver they have is Steve Smith.

The one strength the team has is their running game with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. 

Perhaps Newton is the answer for the future, but he won't be the answer in 2011.  The Panthers are going to struggle mightily this year and may be in fact be an underdog in every game the play this year. 

Chicago Bears: Win Total 8

Prediction: Under

This is one of the picks that can get a lot of action because the Bears are most likely going to finish right around this number.  Despite going 11-5 and hosting the Packers in the NFC Championship, hardly anyone is predicting this team to return to the playoffs.  Despite bringing back a lot of the same roster, many feel this team will fall flat on its face.

I don't think the Bears are quite that bad, and they might even fight for a wild-card berth.  Ultimately, I think the Bears most likely are going to either finish 8-8 or 9-7.  It should be noted that if the Bears don't finish around this record, the odds are higher they'll collapse rather than go 12-4. 

Cincinnati Bengals: Win Total 5.5

Prediction: Under

The Bengals are turning a new corner on their franchise with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green taking over for Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco.  While the Bengals have enjoyed two good seasons in the last decade, 2011 is not going to see a return to prominence.

Simply put, the team is a mess.  For every young guy they have like Jordan Shipley, they have an aging veteran like Cedric Benson running the ball.  The team doesn't have a true identity, and the controversy of Carson Palmer shrouds the team.  Every week you have to wonder if he'll report back to Cincy.

Between an inexperienced rookie quarterback, a team that lacks talent and has a dose of controversy, this team will not win more than five games this season. 

Cleveland Browns: Win Total 6.5

Prediction: Over

The Cleveland Browns are a team that seems to be putting good pieces together.  Colt McCoy looked great for much of the preseason, rookie wide receiver Greg Little has impressed, and of course you have the Madden cover boy Peyton Hillis. 

Their defense is still a work in progress, but they do have strong players in their secondary led by Joe Haden and T.J. Ward. 

The Browns were a five-win team last year so the question you have to ask is the 2011 team two wins better?  I believe they are.  If Cleveland can continue to make these kind of strides, it isn't impossible to think they could compete for a playoff spot as early as next year.  

Dallas Cowboys: Win Total 9

Prediction: Over

It's surprising how under the radar the Dallas Cowboys are, considering they're still known as "America's Team".  Tony Romo is coming back from injury, Dez Bryant hopes to fully break out, and Felix Jones is now squarely the No. 1 running back. 

Rob Ryan is now their defensive coordinator who will bring the Ryan intensity which should only help sack-master DeMarcus Ware.  There is a concern of course as their pass defense will continue to leak like a sieve as it did throughout 2010.  

Despite those defensive woes, I think the Cowboys are a team that could surprise some and make a strong run for a wild-card berth.  Usually five new teams get into the playoffs each year, and Dallas seems like they could be one of those teams.

For that reason, I think Dallas is a good bet to win over nine games.  They're not likely to win 12 games or even win the NFC East for that matter, but Dallas has the look of a team that will go 10-6. 

Denver Broncos: Win Total 5.5

Prediction: Over

A lot of people rightfully blame the Broncos woes on former head coach Josh McDaniels.  His horrible roster decisions have set this team back, most notably trading Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall and trading up and subsequently wasting a first-round pick on Tim Tebow.

John Fox has been brought in to resurrect this once-proud franchise.  That alone should bring some stability to the team. 

The fact is, there are some good pieces here.  Kyle Orton may be the most under appreciated quarterback in the NFL and Brandon Lloyd—to the surprise of many—led the NFL in receiving yards last year.

Elvis Dumervil is back from injury and Von Miller looks like an absolute stud at linebacker.  Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins are in the backfield to captain the defensive unit.

No one is saying the Broncos are going to fight for a playoff spot, but can they improve by at least two wins from 2010?  Between the team improving and division rivals such as the Oakland Raiders taking a step back, I think the Broncos will win six-of-seven games this year. 

Detroit Lions: Win Total 8

Prediction: Even

It seems the Detroit Lions are the new darlings of all prognosticators.  If you would have seen their destruction of the New England Patriots, you could see why.  Heck, they went 4-0 in the preseason.  Perhaps people should remember though, they went undefeated in the 2008 preseason before they won exactly zero games when the contests counted.

Now, I'm not saying the Lions are anywhere near that level of three years ago.  The Lions are clearly moving in the right direction and they could do some special things in the near future. 

However, I don't think the Lions are ready for the next step yet.  Their defensive line may be one of the best in the league but their linebackers and defensive secondary leave something to be desired.  There is still uncertainty at running back as well as the health of Drew Stafford's shoulder.

There is a chance the Lions could win more than eight games this year.  Many people believe they can make the playoffs.  However, I think this team is tailor made to go 8-8. 

Green Bay Packers: Win Total 11.5

Prediction: Over

Many people don't remember the Green Bay Packers went 10-6 and were a No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs last year.  There are those that don't even remember how injured they were, as 15 players were on injured reserve by the time the Super Bowl started.

This is a team brimming with confidence and should only be better in 2011.  Their rival Chicago Bears are unlikely to repeat their success which will only help the Packers even more. 

Aaron Rodgers is developing into perhaps the best quarterback in the league and might be replacing Peyton Manning on the mantle as the truly great elites in the game. 

The Packers are a team that could win 13 or 14 games this year, and are in a position to be only the fourth team to repeat as Super Bowl champion since the Dallas Cowboys of the early 1990's. 

Houston Texans: Win Total 8.5

Prediction: Over

If the Houston Texans don't win the AFC South this year, they may never do it.  The Indianapolis Colts' hopes are riding on the nerves in Peyton Manning's neck.  The Jacksonville Jaguars are in disarray, and the Tennessee Titans are in full rebuild mode. 

The time is now for Houston. They got a championship-caliber offense and they've added defensive parts via free agency and the draft.  Jonathan Joseph and Danieal Manning have been added to the backfield and J.J. Watt was drafted to help at defensive end.

Wade Phillips has been brought in as defensive coordinator as well.  Say what you will about him as a head coach, but there's a reason the guy has had so many chances to coach a team.  It's because he's almost always been very successful coordinating a defense. 

The Texans are in a position that they should win at least 10 games if not more.  If they somehow fall on their face again, then it's going to be one ugly offseason in Houston.

Indianapolis Colts: Win Total 9.5

Prediction: Under

For younger football fans, they have no idea what a bad Colts team looks like.  I remember the bad days in the 1990's when the Colts were usually an embarrassment.  Since Peyton Manning came to the team, the Colts have been a model of consistency, making the postseason nine out of the past 10 years.

However, the Colts are about to learn just how valuable Manning is to the team as he's out at least for the first week of the season with a neck surgery that refuses to heal properly.  It's all wild speculation how long he will be out, but even if he comes back a week from now, he'll still be behind schedule as he's hardly taken a snap since the team's playoff loss to the Jets in January.

The fact is, even with Manning, the Colts were in danger of missing the playoffs.  Their offensive line, usually so stable, is aging. Their running backs are some of the worst in the NFL.  They rely too much on Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark is coming back from major knee surgery.

The defense hasn't added anyone of substance to last year's squad that left a lot to be desired. 

Even if Manning were healthy, I would be reluctant to say they'd win more than nine games. Without him, the Colts may have to worry about having a top 10 pick in the draft next year. 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Win Total 6.5

Prediction: Under

For coach Jack Del Rio who has a "win or else" ultimatum from his owner, he has a funny way of showing any urgency.  The Jaguars roster is devoid of top talent at most positions, which was going to make it very hard to make the postseason to begin with.

But then you get the news that David Garrard got unceremoniously cut from the team just days before the regular season started.  It was a disrespectful move considering Garrard represented the team at a function just hours before being dumped.

The move was fueled partly by economics as the team saves $9 million by severing their ties with him.  The other reason though, is to allow first-round pick Blaine Gabbert more time to start, though officially, Luke McCown is starting this week.

What does this all translate to?  A really bad season in Jacksonville.  The Jags have been known as a tweener team the past few years.  They've not been good enough to compete, but not bad enough to get a top pick.  Cutting Garrard might have just tipped their scale to a point they have a top five pick next year.

Kansas City Chiefs: Win Total 8

Prediction: Over

Talk about a team that is getting no love.  The Kansas City Chiefs surprised many last year going 10-6 and winning the AFC West.  They're a very young team that had standout seasons from Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe. 

The defense is underrated and Matt Cassel pretty much defined what a game-managing quarterback should do throwing 27 touchdowns and just seven interceptions.

Despite all of this, virtually no one is picking the Chiefs to succeed this year.  I personally don't understand why.

Losing offensive coordinator Charlie Weis surely won't help this team, but as long as they run a similar system, they should be ok.  The Chiefs are very young with many of their top players just beginning to reach their potential. 

Eight wins seems like a very small total for a defending division champion.  I believe the Chiefs will win another 10 games and compete for a playoff spot.  

Miami Dolphins: Win Total 7.5

Prediction: Under

There are those that believe the Miami Dolphins will have a good team.  They do have a top 10 defense being led by Cameron Wake.  Reggie Bush is new in town to work with Daniel Thomas at running back.  The problem in my eye is the chemistry the team is going to have and how much respect they'll have for dead coach-walking Tony Sparano.

It seems like ages ago, but the Miami Dolphins were openly shopping for a new coach even though Sparano was under contract.  The team heavily pursued Jim Harbaugh, but he went to the San Francisco 49ers.

When a coach is not respected by the organization, it's often blood in the water for players. Between that, and everyone criticizing the play of Chad Henne, I don't see this team doing well at all this year.

The good news for the Dolphins is when they do bring in a new coach, he'll inherit a team with talent.  The problem for Dolphins fans, is I see this team finishing last place this year. 

Minnesota Vikings: Win Total 7

Prediction: Under

One of the popular statements you'll hear is that Donovan McNabb is motivated to have a great season this year.  Well, that's all well and good—he's motivated—but the question is who will he throw the ball to?  Sidney Rice is gone, Percy Harvin can't stay healthy, and Bernard Berrian has been a complete disappointment. 

The defense is aging and haven't brought in any major talent to the squad.  There are some great individual pieces such as Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen.  There are pieces in place here to make this team competitive in the future.

This year however, there are going to be some growing pains.  With an extremely competitive NFC North, the Vikings are going to be a team that suffers most in 2011.  The funny thing is, if they get a top pick in next years draft, they could end up laughing last in 2012. 

New England Patriots: Win Total 11.5

Prediction: Over

So the Patriots add players like Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco.  They get rid of players they perceived as cancers such as Brandon Meriweather and the rest of the young defense has had time to mature.  Of course they still have Tom Brady, one of the best players in this era.

So how exactly is this team going to fall back three games this season?  To me, I don't get it.

I don't think the Patriots are going to go 14-2 again this season, but I don't see where other teams in the AFC improved enough to knock this team down several notches.  I still don't see this team falling to the Jets (at least in the regular season),

To me, I think the Patriots go 13-3 this year and will remain a Super Bowl favorite. 

New Orleans Saints: Win Total 10

Prediction: Over

This may sound bizarre to say, but I think the Saints are one of the more underrated teams in the NFL.  Their lackadaisical performance against the Seattle Seahawks in the playoffs last year has left a bad taste in the mouth for many football fans, but many forget just how good this team was in 2009 and for stretches of 2010.

The Saints won 11 games and narrowly lost winning the AFC South last year.  In the offseason they added rookie running back Mark Ingram, speedster Darren Sproles, center Olin Kruetz, defensive tackle Shaun Rodgers and a host of other players.

Reloading an 11-win team with these players will make the Saints a bona fide Super Bowl contender.  They do play in an incredibly deep NFC South, but as long as the Saints can win four divisional games, I absolutely believe the Saints can win at least seven of their remaining 10 games.

This is one team that I think will easily exceed their win total. 

New York Giants: Win Total 9.5

Prediction: Under

Perhaps the Giants and coach Tom Coughlin cannot be blamed for the struggles this team will most likely have.  No team was as brutalized by injuries in the preseason as the Giants were as they lost a host of starters for the season, most notably star cornerback Terrell Thomas.

The Giants are going to field a very competitive offense and Brandon Jacobs looks like he consumed water from the fountain of youth because he looked to have the burst back that made him so good several years ago.  But the defense could be one of the worst in the league with so many injuries on that end of the roster.

Because of this, expect the Giants to struggle this year, most likely winning between seven and eight games.  It's very doubtful this team will repeat its 10-win performance of 2010. 

New York Jets: Win Total 10

Prediction: Even

A lot of people are picking the Jets to finally get to the Super Bowl this year, but I don't understand why.  To me, this team is not as strong as the 2010 team.  The defense remains by and large unchanged, and the offense is arguably worse. 

Instead of Braylon Edwards and Jericho Cotchery the Jets now have Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason.  While Burress has a lot of upside, he is now 34, been out of the league for two years, and has already had back and ankle issues.  Mason has been in the league so long that Mark Sanchez was nine when Mason was drafted. 

Many people think Shonn Greene is a future star, but he's yet to break out and LaDanian Tomlinson is another year older. The team is going to have to rely on Sanchez to go from a game manager to a playmaker. The question is if Sanchez is willing or able to take that next step.

The Jets are still a good team and will most likely make the playoffs.  Ultimately though, I don't have any confidence this team will win more than 10 games. 

Oakland Raiders: Win Total 7

Prediction: Under

The Oakland Raiders had their best season since their 2002 Super Bowl run last year, going 8-8 for the first time in eight years. 

How does the team celebrate this?  They fire their coach Tom Cable, and were unable to resign their two biggest free agents Nnamdi Asomugha and Zach Miller.  They then get in the news, spending a third -round draft pick to bring in the controversial Terrelle Pryor.

The Raiders managed to go 6-0 against AFC West rivals last year.  That means in their remaining 10 games they went 2-8.  Considering they have lost players, it is unlikely they'll enjoy the same kind of success against their rivals.

Because of all these reasons, I would expect Oakland to struggle mightily this year.  Not only will they not win seven games, the Raiders will revert back to form and struggle to even win five. 

Philadelphia Eagles: Win Total 10.5

Prediction: Over

While the Eagles may not exactly be a new "dream team", they are definitely a squad to be feared.  The biggest question is if Michael Vick can stay healthy.  If he can play between 12-14 games, then the sky is the limit for the Eagles.

The defending NFC East Champions have certainly done enough to win more than 10 games.  Between the addition of cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, wide receiver Steve Smith, running back Ronnie Brown and a host of other pickups, the Eagles are absolutely stacked. 

They are a dangerous team that will absolutely contend for a Super Bowl. 

Pittsburgh Steelers: Win Total 10.5

Prediction: Under

By all accounts the Steelers should continue their run of dominance in the AFC.  But more times than not, the losing team in the Super Bowl struggles the following year.  Beyond that, the Steelers have had their own struggles recently, failing to reach the postseason the past two times they won the Super Bowl.

Another issue with this team is while the talk has died down in recent months, the Steelers had one of the more volatile offseasons in the league.  Between Rashard Mendenhall's controversial 9/11 comments, to James Harrison blasting Ben Roethlisberger in a magazine article, there is a lot of potential dissension if the season starts on a sour note.

The Steelers have the talent to win the AFC North, but I don't expect them to win more than 10 games. 

San Diego Chargers: Win Total 10.5

Prediction: Over

Revenge is a dish best served cold.  It's a quote that makes me think of what the 2011 season will be like for the Chargers.  For several years now, the team has come out of the gates horribly slow and it cost them last year, as the Bolts could not recover from a 2-5 start.

This year is going to be different for San Diego.  The team will likely be fuming over their failures of last year even though they had the top-rated offense and defense.  Philip Rivers has the potential to throw for over 5,000 yards and running back Ryan Matthews is finally healthy.

In the AFC West, the Raiders are worse, the Broncos are still a mess, and it's uncertain if the Chiefs can repeat their surprise success of last year.  It's a very winnable division and the Chargers should win five or six divisional games.

Overall, this is a season where a lot is lining up well for San Diego.  The Colts are in shambles without Peyton Manning and no other AFC power did a lot to vastly improve themselves.  Expect the Chargers to win 12 or 13 games this year. 

San Francisco 49ers: Win Total 7.5

Prediction: Under

The 49ers are a weird team.  Despite some huge struggles at the quarterback position, the Niners still had the 14th-ranked passing game in the NFL last year.  They have some of leagues best stars at certain positions and they play in the weakest division in the NFL.

With all of that said, I expect the Niners to only win between six or seven games this year.  The Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams did more to improve their teams in the offseason, and that will translate in the standings. 

A big reason for their struggles will likely emanate from the head coaching position.  Jim Harbaugh is making his first foray into the NFL head coaching ranks and will make his mistakes along the way.  The continued issues at quarterback will also likely rear their ugly head. 

Seattle Seahawks: Win Total 6

Prediction: Under

The Seahawks had the dubious honor of being the first team in NFL history to play a divisional playoff game with a losing record, getting soundly beaten by the Chicago Bears. 

Instead of improving this divisional "winner" the Seahawks have likely regressed despite signing standout-receiver Sidney Rice and tight end Zach Miller.  Their quarterback situation is an absolute mess right now, and worse yet, other teams like the Cardinals and Rams have seen their teams improve more.

This is going to be a rough season for the Seahawks.  While one can say losing more than 10 games is a major regression, people have to remember this team won just seven games last year. 

St. Louis Rams: Win Total 7.5

Prediction: Over

I am very confident that the Rams will win more than seven games this year.  For a team that added guys like Mike-Sims Walker at wide receiver to a roster full of young emerging talent, the Rams are favored to win the NFC West this season.

Sam Bradford looks like the real deal and players like defensive end Chris Long look like they could be real stars.  The team also has Steven Jackson who may be one of the more underrated players in the NFL.

All the Rams need to do is win one more game than last year to exceed the 7.5 wins.  I believe the Rams are going to win between nine or 10 games this year, win the division and potentially make some noise in the playoffs. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Win Total 8

Prediction: Even

No team surprised the NFL more than the Bucs in 2010. Despite having one of the most inexperienced rosters in the league, Tampa went 10-6 and missed the playoffs based on tiebreakers.  They were led by Josh Freeman who threw for a very impressive 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions.

The problem is Tampa now has to deal with expectations, something they never had last season. They also have to play a much harder schedule, as they only beat one team with a winning record—the Saints on the last week of the season.

This season they have seven games against 2010 playoff teams as well as games against playoff contenders like the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans.  It's a much more difficult schedule and combine that with the expectations they now have, expect the Bucs to take a step back last year.

No one is questioning whether this team has talent.  The franchise is moving in the right direction for sure.  Many times though, when a young team such as Tampa has a surprisingly good year, they struggle to repeat that success the next year.  That's where I see Tampa this year, especially considering two of the best teams in the NFL reside in their division.

The Bucs are a team that can fight for a playoff spot.  It just won't be this year. 

Tennessee Titans: Win Total 7

Prediction: Under

It's a new era in Tennessee with Jeff Fisher out and Mike Munchak in.  Also, after a game of quarterback musical chairs between Vince Young and Kerry Collins, veteran Matt Hasselbeck has taken over the reigns.  However, this team will play its own version of musical chairs with first-round pick Jake Locker waiting in the wings to take over the franchise.

The Titans are a team that confounds some.  They have an excellent offensive line, one of the best running backs seen in years in Chris Johnson, and good pieces on defense.  Yet, this is a team that's by and large underwhelmed over the past few seasons. 

With a difficult schedule and the high possibility of a raw rookie quarterback seeing game action this year, expect this team to struggle again. 

Not many people expect a lot out of the Titans this year. The problem is, you hate to see a team waste years to rebuild while you have such a great running back like Johnson.  The Rams saw this happen with Steven Jackson while they were winning between one and three games for several years.

While the Titans will not be quite that bad, they will be "fighting" with the Jacksonville Jaguars to see who will finish last in the AFC South. 

Washington Redskins: Win Total 6

Prediction: Over

When thinking about the Redskins, a lot of people just think about their quarterback situation, which to be fair, is one of the worst in football.  The "battle" between Rex Grossman who has been a career disappointment and John Beck who has never really started, dominated most of the headlines in preseason. 

People lose sight of the fact that the Redskins brought in some good talent at many other positions.  O.J. Atogwe signed with the 'Skins and is a Pro Bowl caliber safety.  Jabar Gaffney was acquired and can compliment Santana Moss and emerging-speedster Anthony Armstrong.

Then you have Tim Hightower who looks like the steal of the offseason as he tore it up during the preseason.  He looks like he perfectly fits in Mike Shanahan's offense and could certainly help the quarterback, no matter who is at the helm.

The Redskins are unlikely to compete for a playoff spot, but they also won't struggle as much as many people are predicting to happen.  If they can bring in a good quarterback in the 2012 offseason, then this team could position themselves for the playoffs next year.