2011 NFL Predictions: 7 Keys to a Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Run

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is an antsy 69-year-old man.  He has a great capacity for cultivating characters, but no patience for losing.  Jones has a $1.2 billion Cowboys Stadium that is waiting to house the champion that its Texas-sized enormity deserves.

All that taxpayer money spent on a football stadium requires some return, anyway.

In the first season in the new Cowboys Stadium, Jones' new Rolls Royce of a football stadium received all of the expected attention for its great gallows—and even for its potentially obstructive video board.  Despite all of the press for the new Cowboys Stadium, the Cowboys could not produce. 

After Tony Romo suffered a season-ending collarbone fracture, the season was a loss.  When Jones fired Wade Phillips, Jason Garrett took the head coach reins and turned the team into a machine, going 5-3 in the second half of the season to finish 6-10, despite being guided by drone backup quarterback Jon Kitna.

Now, the Cowboys enter their 16th season since winning Super Bowl XXX.  In Jones' world, 16 years is a century.  The Cowboys have a coach, a quarterback and talented players at skilled positions.

Is America's team ready to take back America's most-watched game?

Following are the keys to the Cowboys earning the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Tony Romo

Romo enters the 2011 campaign strong and healthy.  If the preseason could have shown anything regarding Romo, a seven-year veteran, it showed he is ready for the new season after missing most of 2010 due to injury.  Romo moved fluidly, made strong passes and led the offense deftly, demonstrating his readiness in full action. 

When he faces the formidable New York Jets defense on Sunday night for Week 1, he will see his first regular-season action in about 10.5 months.  For many players, playing such a tough defense after a long time away from real NFL game competition is a leap, but not for a top-10 quarterback like Romo.

Romo is one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL.  When he is at his best, he's in the mix with Tom Brady and Drew Brees among the elite.  Romo has twice been among the top three in passing yards, has the third highest QB rating among active quarterbacks (95.5) and is the active leader in yards per passing attempt (8.0) and touchdowns as a percentage of pass attempts (5.7 percent). 

The only thing diminishing his elite status is his 1-3 playoff record.  However, as Peyton Manning demonstrated five years ago, any quarterback can go from being a struggling playoff quarterback to a Super Bowl champion in a single playoff run.

Romo worked in training camp to become a more vocal leader.  Moreover, he said that he's in the "second phase" of his career, where he's "to the point where it's all about winning."  Such dedication transforms a quarterback from a skilled arm to a determined champion.

The Cowboys will need this evolved character in Romo to claim their first Super Bowl in 16 years.

The Offensive Line

As much as Romo means to the success of the Cowboys, a good offensive line means almost as much—if not as much—to the success of a winning team as a good quarterback does.  A skilled quarterback, such as in the case of Michael Vick last year, can bring a team to the playoffs despite the leakiness of his offensive line.  However, even the most skilled quarterbacks, as seen with Vick and Jay Cutler last season, can be hurt badly by a leaky offensive line.

Jones takes risks with his Cowboys.  He has cultivated big egos in recent years, such as wide receiver Terrell Owens and safety Roy Williams.  He let Jimmy Johnson go after Johnson had won the Cowboys two Super Bowls.

This is a different type of risk.  Jones let go of three starting linemen from last season—Andre Gurode, Marc Colombo, and Leonard Davis—partly to free salary cap space.  Further, all three are 32 years old and entering the back side of their careers.  While it is a necessary move, Jones may be playing with fire.  He chopped off the right side of an offensive line that saw all five of its starters start at least 13 games in 2010.  Offensive line play is partly about chemistry, and chemistry sometimes takes time to develop.

Releasing Colombo made room for first-round draft pick Tyrone Smith.  Smith benefits from guidance from Kyle Kosier, who enters his 10th year and helped Doug Free blossom last year.  Smith did fairly well in the preseason, picking up the defense particularly well against the San Diego Chargers.  This could be a good right side for the Cowboys.  Phil Costa beat Gurode in a position battle, which might mean something positive.  Left guard Bill Nagy, a rookie from Wisconsin, is a converted center.  Free played well last season in his first full season as a starter.

Some of the parts for this offensive line look positive, but the five will need to play well as a group for the Cowboys to succeed.

Felix Jones

When Felix Jones came out of college, he was touted as a potentially explosive threat.

Jones suffered a left hamstring injury and a torn ligament in his first season.  In his second season, his potential was on full display as he led the league with 5.9 yards per rush.  He came out in poor condition in 2010, which affected his performance significantly.  Jones ran for 800 yards, but only 4.3 yards per rush. On the bright side, he showed another dimension to his game, producing 450 yards receiving on 48 catches.

In the offseason, the Cowboys released Marion Barber, behind whom Jones played for three years.  Now, Jones has been entrusted to be the lead running back.  He will have great responsibility as the release valve for Romo when the passing game is exhausted or struggling.

Jones is an amazing talent with supreme potential, which must come to fruition to aid a Cowboys Super Bowl run.

Dez Bryant

The Cowboys receiving corps is extremely talented.  Romo couldn't complain about his pass catchers.  Miles Austin is a stellar deep threat.  Jason Witten is one of the premier tight ends in the NFL.  Dez Bryant is perhaps the most intriguing character on the Cowboys team.

Also, Bryant—more than any other pass catcher—has the potential to be the difference for the Cowboys.

Bryant was fairly impressive last season, catching 45 passes for 561 yards and six touchdowns.  His issues entering his second year may be worrisome.  He is coming back from a broken fibula suffered in December and Bryant was hit in the spring with lawsuits for outstanding payments.  Also, he received a warning from police in March for a disturbance occurring at a mall in Dallas. 

Could he be another Texas-sized headcase for the Cowboys?

Cowboys quarterbacks coach Wade Wilson doesn't think he will be.  "He's one of our most improved guys," he said. "He takes a much more serious approach."

Hopefully, this is the case.  The Cowboys need Bryant to be serious to help them get on the Super Bowl track.

Rob Ryan's Defense

The Cowboys defense is an underperforming bunch.  In the last seven seasons, the Cowboys have ranked 20th or worse in scoring defense four times.  This is despite having DeMarcus Ware lead the league in sacks twice in those dismal defensive seasons.  Ware has shouldered much of the load for a capable Cowboys defense with talented players, many of whom don't play up to their capability, especially Terence Newman and Bradie James. 

To shore up the underwhelming crew is new Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan.  Ryan represents the same hard-nosed fire and passion ilk as his brother, Rex, and father, Buddy, the architect of the 46 defense run by the 1985 Chicago Bears.

Just like Rex, Rob Ryan has an illustrious mouth.  After a 2009 Browns overtime loss to the Bengals, Ryan protested the game-winning field goal.  This summer, amidst talk of the prowess of this year's Philadelpia Eagles, Ryan torted, "I don't know if we win the all-hype team, but we're going to beat their a-- when we play them."

Ryan might be a fun sound byte, but what matters is his ability to harness the capability of his players.  When he was in Cleveland, he never had the resources to build a top-notch defense.  However, he developed players into surprising contributors.  He brought defensive end Marcus Benard from to practice squad and saw him become a sack monster.  Benard had 3.5 sacks at the end of 2009 and 7.5 sacks in 2010.  Under his leadership, Sheldon Brown successfully transitioned to the rainshadow of his career, intercepting two passes and deflecting 10 at age 31.

The key for Ryan will be motivating veterans, especially some who may be playing like dead weight in the midst of their career.  He will have to rejuvenate James and Newman.  Also, he will have to turn Anthony Spencer into a strong enough rusher to amply complement Ware.

If he can improve the Cowboys defense, they will be on the right track to the Super Bowl.

Kicker

Kicker was a tough position to field for the Cowboys during camp and preseason.

After pitting David Buehler, the kicker from last season, against the likes of Shayne Graham, Dave Rayner and undrafted rookie Dan Bailey, Garrett decided to start the season with two kickers, Bailey and Buehler.  Garrett is assigning Bailey with most of the kicking duties.  Having two kickers is an unusual situation.  Bailey might be the better option, as he was 27-of-31 in his senior season at Oklahoma State.  Buehler was 24-of-32 last year, only 36th in the league in field goal percentage.

Dwight Howard almost could have hit at a better mark than Buehler.

Fielding an undrafted rookie is a common way to address the kicker situation.  A team can either strike gold, as the New England Patriots did with Stephen Gostkowski and the Chicago Bears did with Robbie Gould, or it can simply end up with a run-of-the-mill kicker.  Either way, the Cowboys are in a virtually no-risk situation.

The only risk is sending out a kicker to punch in three points when Romo could just as easily connect for a first down or touchdown.  When that is a major concern on important field goal situations, the Cowboys face a bit of an issue at kicker.

Having reliability at kicker will bring the Cowboys significantly closer to being a title contender.

Jason Garrett

Being the Cowboys head coach is a difficult job.  The coach has to deal with Jerry Jones, who can be unwieldy and outspoken.  One wrong move by the coach can find criticism from Jones in the press.  Jones can throw a coach out with the trash.  After all, as Jones said after he fired Johnson, "500 coaches could coach this team." 

Granted, Jones did come to eat his words.

Anyhow, Garrett has an advantage that not every new head coach has.  He had a strong half season as an interim head coach before becoming the man at the helm.  That gave players some time to become adjusted to the tighter grip he holds on the team than Phillips did.  Garrett doesn't let as many issues slide as Phillips did. 

Still, he is a calm hand guiding a tough ship.

Many believed Garrett's fresh approach was much-needed after the slack given by Phillips.  If Garrett's no-nonsense approach wins games and cuts turnovers, penalties and mental mistakes, they will more closely resemble a Super Bowl contender.

Prediction

Odds of Cowboys winning Super Bowl XLVI:  7-1

Prediction for their season: 10-6, second in NFC East, lose in NFC Championship

The Cowboys have a strong enough team to make a deep run in the playoffs.  Romo is a terrific passer and now also a determined competitor.  He and Aaron Rodgers would be an interesting duel if the Cowboys and Packers meet in the NFC Championship Game.  Romo has some of the best weapons he could want in Jones, Austin, Bryant and Witten.  Seeing the Cowboys score 450 points this season would be no surprise.  Ware will have another great season.  Ryan will turn Spencer into a decent pass rusher.

Generally, the Cowboys are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.  However, the first year is always a challenge for new head coaches.  Garrett may face new challenges in the playoffs.  A deep playoff push is certainly a tough test for a new head coach.