Oakland Raiders: Nine Reasons They Will Win the AFC West

The AFC West is one of the most competitive divisions in football year in and year out.  Long standing rivalries and hard fought games against division opponents define the West. Many games simply come down to who puts points on the scoreboard last. 

Last season the Oakland Raiders swept the division but watched as the Kansas City Chiefs advanced to the playoffs only to be bludgeoned into submission by the Baltimore Ravens 30–7.  

An argument could be made that the San Diego Chargers were the strongest team in the division and some stats would back that up.  

Others would support the Oakland Raiders as the best representative from the West.

The Broncos spiraled to the bottom of the division with Josh McDaniels behind the wheel. 

It is time now to look forward to the upcoming season to see who will represent this division in the playoffs. 

The West is a division in transition and it will be a fight to the finish to see who emerges victorious when the dust settles.  My prediction is that the Oakland Raiders will be atop the division when it's all said and done.  Turn the page to find out why.

Reason No. 1: the Kansas City Chiefs Will Not Repeat as Division Champs

This wouldn't be the last time we witnessed Chiefs' head coach Todd Haley pull this with another head coach.  It happened again in the preseason when John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens called time out to use the last few moments of the game for instruction of his young players.

Todd Haley could learn a lot from Harbaugh.  He should have used the timeout to motivate his young players to stand their ground and refuse to allow the Ravens to get into the end zone again.  Instead, his defense all but got out of the way to allow Anthony Allen into the end zone.

Todd Haley is a poor sport when his team is blasted and especially when the wound is still fresh from the beating they took by the same team in the postseason last year.  His attitude garners him no respect from coaches around the league.  

Look at the body language in the picture on this slide.  Haley has his elbow tucked to his side as if he's afraid McDaniels will touch him.  He chose to point rather than grab McDaniel's hand like a man, squeeze the hell out of it while he pulled him close enough to whisper and scare the life out of him.

It's hard to imagine the modern day gladiators that Haley coaches having a true respect for this man.  If you don't respect what your coach says then how can you believe he will be the one to lead you through the struggles ahead?

If Haley is the Chief of the Tribe in Kansas City they will struggle to gain respect for their team and their head coach in 2011.  I predict a step backward for the Chiefs this year.

Reason No. 2: Kansas City Will Not Run the Football Like They Did in 2010

The Kansas City Chiefs led the league in rushing last year.  They were impressive, using Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones to carve up opposing defenses, making it easier to hide the deficiencies of Matt Cassel.

This year the Chiefs will be running behind an offensive line that will be without guard Brian Waters after the Chiefs parted ways with the five-time Pro Bowler and two-time First Team All-Pro guard.  Waters may be 34 years old but he was a key component to the Chiefs rushing attack last year.   

While the Chiefs return 80 percent of their starting offensive line from last year I don't see the same production from this unit without Waters.  Lilja will shift from right guard to left and Jon Asomoah will be the new starting right guard.

They are thin at the tackle position and hope to get a contribution from Jared Gaither, who flirted with the Raiders before they passed on signing him amid rumors of health concerns.

Thomas Jones is now 33 years old and behind him the Chiefs would likely turn to Jackie Battle.  I believe the Chiefs' best option behind Charles would be between Jones and LeRon McClain but the Chiefs seem determined to leave McClain at the fullback position.

Matt Cassel has looked completely out of sync in the preseason, completing only 44 percent of his passes. The ground game has yet to get going and although it's the preseason the Chiefs rank last or near last in just about every offensive category.  They must be concerned with the lack of production.  

Reason No. 3: the Denver Broncos Are Still in Transition

When Mike Shanahan left there was a giant void in the center of the Denver Broncos.  Teams in the AFC West smelled blood in the water and the Broncos did nothing to stem the flow.

They brought in an unprepared Josh McDaniels and the results were anything but what they had hoped for.  They imagined they were bringing in a proven offensive mind and a skilled play-caller and they truly had neither.  

What McDaniels proceeded to do was alienate and trade away two of the most talented players the Broncos had on their roster.  

He attempted to trade interception-prone Jay Cutler and the deal fell through but the media still caught wind of it.  The quarterback no longer trusted his coach or the team and was eventually dealt to the Bears while Denver received Kyle Orton and draft picks in return.

After that he benched Brandon Marshall for disciplinary reasons and promptly traded him to Miami for 2nd round picks in 2010 and 2011.  I understand Marshall was a head case and is now being treated properly for his borderline personality disorder but it doesn't take away from his talent.  

McDaniels was fired after a 3-9 start to the 2010 season and the team hired John Fox following the season to attempt to right the ship.  

John Fox will bring stability to this organization but it will take time after McDaniels set this franchise in reverse.  John Fox will run the football and attempt to play solid defense while not relying on Kyle Orton to throw the Broncos to victories.  

This is something Fox has experience with from his time in Carolina with Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen.

This was a good move by the Broncos in an attempt to stabilize their organization. They have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the football, especially in their pass rush and secondary.  Von Miller appears to be the real deal, and he along with a healthy Elvis Dumervil are key components of a daunting pass rush.

Reason No. 4: The Broncos Will Fail to Run the Ball or Stop the Run Effectively

I do believe the Denver Broncos landed one of the best talents in the draft with Von Miller.  He is already drawing comparisons to Hall of Fame DE/LB Derrick Thomas.  However, I don't like drawing comparisons between rookies and those who should be honored as some of the best to have ever played the game.

That being said, Miller looks to be a great young talent and should flourish in Denver with Elvis Dumervil coming back healthy to start at defensive end on the opposite side of Miller at linebacker.

The Broncos will have a formidable pass rush and couple it with an improved secondary.  Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman will be the starting cornerbacks and they added safety Rahim Moore out of UCLA in the second round of this year's draft.

While the Broncos may be improved at rushing the passer, they failed to address their secondary, a major weakness, in the draft.

The Broncos have been giving up chunks of yards on the ground and right through the heart of the defensive line.  They did not draft a defensive tackle as many experts and fans thought they would.  

The Broncos added Ty Warren in free agency but the former Patriot might be lost for the year after a triceps injury and subsequent surgery.  He is a defensive end though and would not have aided the middle of the line without a position change.  

With a young offensive line to run behind the Broncos have had limited success on the ground.  If they cannot get Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee going this year it could be difficult to command control of the ball.  

They can, however help the Raiders in week 5 when they face the San Diego Chargers.  If the Chargers haven't stirred from their early season slumber yet the Broncos could pull a small upset at home.  

The Broncos pass rush will be more than San Diego's line can handle and it may impact Philip Rivers, causing him to go red in the face. When he's flustered and being hit he plays significantly more reckless.  

If Rivers tosses up a couple of jump balls, Bailey, Goodman and Moore could be waiting with open arms.  

If the Broncos pull off the victory it could keep the Raiders from falling out of the race early and having to fight back in.  

The Raiders face a "Murderer's Row" in Weeks 3, 4 and 5.  Week 3 has the Jets coming to town, Week 4 sees Tom Brady and the Patriots come into Oakland and in Week 5 the Raiders travel to Houston to face the high-powered Texans.  

Reason No. 5: Norv Turner Is a Little Slow on the Uptake

It is well known and documented that Norv Turner-coached teams have a tendency to start the regular season in a bit of a slumber. 

Last year the Chargers started 2-5 and found a way to get back into the race.  This year will see the Chargers have a similar start to their season.  With a shortened training camp I just can't see Norv changing his ways enough to inspire a fast start.

When Norv is finally awake and clear on his play calling he can tend to get into a rut.  When the defense disrupts what Turner is trying to accomplish or downright blows his game plan apart he can be slow to adjust.  

Norv seems to be poor at adaptive coaching.  When the defense's scheme is overwhelming your offense you must figure out a way around it or suffer the consequences.  Too many times Turner believes in his plays or is too stubborn to adapt when the Chargers hit a wall.  

One very pint-sized player that had a large impact bailing Turner out of bad situations is Darren Sproles. San Diego let Sproles get away in the offseason and he is now with the New Orleans Saints. This bodes well for the Raiders.

It seemed at times that the Raiders were fully capable of stopping the Chargers until Sproles found a soft spot to get comfortable, catch a pass and pick up a first down.  

Now the Raiders have to deal with Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews, a tandem Oakland had mixed success handling a year ago.  In the two games against the Chargers, Mike Tolbert rushed 19 times for 27 yards.  Mathews fared better with nine attempts for 59 yards.  

Without the x-factor of Darren Sproles and with a weak offensive line I see some rough games for Philip Rivers and the Chargers.  

Reason No. 6: There's Trouble in the Trenches in San Diego

San Diego's offensive line gave up 38 sacks last season.  By comparison the Oakland Raiders offensive line gave up 44.  I'm sure a lot of people would consider the Raiders as having one of the poorer lines in terms of pass protection.

The difference is that the Raiders addressed this problem in the offseason.  I have yet to see if the Chargers added anyone that will improve their front line starters.  Having the same group back as last year and expecting the results to be significantly better is a risky gamble.

The Broncos improved their pass rush with the drafting of Von Miller and with a healthy Elvis Dumervil could wreak havoc on the Chargers when they face them in week five.  

The Raiders and Chargers both had 47 sacks last year on defense so they can both get to the quarterback. The Raiders historically like to get natural pressure with their front four and with the growth Matt Shaughnessy showed last year at defensive end the Raiders look to take another step forward defensively.  

The effect Richard Seymour has had on the Raiders defensive line has been noticeable. It's no surprise that Tommy Kelly had his first standout year with the Raiders with Seymour lined up next to him.  The health of Seymour and Kelly is key to the Raiders' success.  Without them they are very thin with backups John Henderson and Desmond Bryant.

The Chargers are also strong on the defensive line as they added Corey Liuget, a talented young defensive tackle from Illinois, in the draft.  He plays bigger than his 6'2" 300 lbs. would suggest and is strong at both stopping the run and rushing the passer.  

San Diego's defensive weakness lies in their linebacking corps.  Outside of Shaun Phillips it's hard to find an impact player at the second level.  The team signed Takeo Spikes in an attempt to shore up the unit but it's unknown just how much the 14-year veteran has left in the tank.

It will be interesting to see just how much bend there is in the San Diego offensive line before there is a break. The Raiders rattled Philip River's cage last year and you can be sure they will look at that tape to determine how to attack the signal caller this year.   

Reason No. 7: the Oakland Raiders Have Improved Their Offensive Line

The Oakland Raiders were second in the league last year rushing the football. Darren McFadden ranked fourtth in the AFC with 1,157 yards and his 5.2 YPC average was second in the AFC only to Jamaal Charles for running backs with at least 200 attempts.  

The Oakland Raiders got even better, folks.  They improved their offensive line through the draft, free agency and the growth of second year left tackle Jared Veldheer.  

Robert Gallery went to Seattle as a free agent and truthfully he was better suited as a zone-blocking guard anyway.  The Raiders drafted Stefen Wisniewski from Penn State with thoughts of him being a center of the future for them.

Samson Satele shook things up by playing better than the Raiders expected in camp.  This allowed them to shift Wisniewski to left guard and move Daniel Loper back to a reserve role where he belongs.  

Satele wasn't the only one to find a second wind.  Cooper Carlisle, the right guard who was thought to be a zone-blocking specialist as well has impressed with his fire and determination in the power blocking style implemented by Hue Jackson.

Carlisle is pushed by Bruce Campbell, the combine freak all draft analysts thought the Raiders would take in the first round of the 2010 NFL draft. The Raiders shocked everyone and waited until the fourth round to pick up Campbell.  His athletic ability makes him an ideal guard and he is stating his case for consideration in a starting role. 

The Raiders added Joseph Barksdale in the 2011 NFL draft and Stephon Heyer, formerly of the Washington Redskins, in free agency.

Barksdale has been pushing Khalif Barnes and many feel he has outplayed Barnes.  Barksdale looks to get his shot to start sooner rather than later and add to an already strong Raiders line.

Heyer has played some guard and tackle and was looking to overtake Barnes and Barksdale for the starting right tackle job before a triceps injury set him back.  Many view either Barksdale or Heyer as an upgrade over Khalif Barnes.  

Reason No. 8: the Oakland Raiders Have Added Legitimate Offensive Weapons

The Raiders appear to have drafted better than many gave them credit for.  

Fourth round pick Denarius Moore lit the practice field on fire and was a daily playmaker in camp. His play translated to the field and his electrifying ability is obvious. He looks to make a push to start at wide receiver and also return punts.

Derek Hagan was brought into camp and has continued to impress in practice and games. The five year veteran out of Arizona State and formerly with the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins has shown that hard work pays off.  

Hagan has been a solid and steady performer, finding ways to get open and showing not only his soft and reliable hands but an ability to run after the catch.  At 6'2" and 215 lbs. Hagan can be tough to bring down in the open field. 

The offense continued to improve when Zach Miller departed for Seattle.  That is not a typo, they improved because for half the money they acquired Kevin Boss in free agency.  Boss is known to be a much better blocker than Miller.  This could help the Raiders rushing attack gain even more yards on the perimeter.

Although Boss was never targeted to the extent that Miller was in Oakland he has proven to be a big-bodied, reliable target with surprising agility.  He will most likely pull down about 60 passes this year. 

The Raiders added another dynamic player in the seventh round of the 2011 draft when they selected David Ausberry, a wide receiver from USC.  Ausberry switched to the tight end position and he flourished there.  He is 6'4", 245 lbs. and runs a 4.5 40-yard dash.  He has flashed playmaking ability and could be yet another weapon for the Silver and Black.

Taiwan Jones showcased his skills against the Saints on Sunday night and showed why the Raiders were wise to take a shot on him with the 28th pick of the fourth round.  

Jones flashed uncanny vision, agility, change of direction, acceleration and top-end speed.  His high 4.2 and low 4.3 40 times speak to just how fast this young man is.  While at Eastern Washington University Jones averaged over 10 YPC and a touchdown every 12 times the ball was in his hands as a running back.  In a word, he's explosive.

Not to be overlooked, the Raiders still have playmakers in Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Marcel Reece, Jacoby Ford, Louis Murphy, Chaz Schilens and lastly, Darrius Heyward–Bey.  

Reason No. 9: the Hue Jackson and Al Saunders Effect on the Raiders

Many people wished the Hue Jackson era would have begun the day he was hired by the Raiders.  

It appears as though it actually did.  Hue Jackson earned the respect of the players as he challenged them to compete harder.  The Raiders offense was weak so he would fire up the defense to bring it even harder.  He would tell him the play and where it was going.

He forced the offense to elevate their game just to survive, and they did just that last year. Surviving was a large step forward from the futility that mired the Raiders offense has been mired in in recent years.  The productivity of the offense was undeniable and it appeared Al Davis had found his offensive-minded head coach.

In his first offseason Hue continued his high energy coaching style and promised to "build a bully" that would remind everyone of what Raider football once was.  The bully project has been just that, a project.  Hue has challenged the team to elevate their expectations of themselves.  

The practices have been crisper and more physical than any in recent memory and the results again are undeniable. Jason Campbell and the offense appear more confident entering this season and more organized than many observers can remember.

Enter Al Saunders.  

Hue Jackson and Al Saunders worked together in Baltimore and when Hue got the head coaching job his first call was to Al Saunders.  

Al Saunders has taken the passing attack from barely respected to an actual attack of the defense.  There are formation shifts much more often than with the basic offenses of the recent past.  Receivers are running better routes and the timing of the offense has improved.

It appears the Raiders are going to be a force to be reckoned with this year.  Jason Campbell looked very calm and decisive against the Saints.  Should Hue Jackson and Al Saunders find ways to incorporate all the weapons on offense it would be hard to see any team having the personnel to match up with them.

This newfound balance will make it very hard for teams to stack the box to stop the rushing attack, paving the way for a big year from Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, with some Taiwan Jones sprinkled in there as well.  

This writer believes all these factors will lead to a Raider title in the AFC West this year and a return to the playoffs for the first time since 2002.