Inside the Numbers: College Football Predictions with the Coaches' Poll

With the release of the 2011 USA Today Coaches' Poll, the college football season is officially underway—we move from wildly unsubstantiated speculation to slightly substantiated speculation.

Now that it's August and an official piece of the BCS pie has had its input, I wanted to examine what we can actually take from the past in order to predict the future.

Also, in the spirit of college football, I am attempting to combine info one might actually learn in college and apply it to football. Trust me; this doesn’t go any deeper than Statistics 101.

By now, the BCS system has been in existence for 13 seasons, meaning that 26 teams have participated in a designated BCS Championship Game, be it the BCS National Championship Game that has occurred since the 2006 season, or one of the big four from 1998-2005.

More numbers would be nice, but 26 are enough to draw some conclusions.

The following slides will examine the poll, its history, and what conclusions we can assume this year. Of course last year defied all logic as the No. 23 team (Auburn) beat the No. 11 team (Oregon), the highest combined ranking in the history of the BCS. 

First, we have to examine what we're dealing with; although possible, no teams from the same conference have ever played in the title game, and there have also never been any out-of-conference rematches, so we'll assume that won't happen this year either.

That said, here are the categories:

ACC

Big East 

Big Ten 

Big XII 

Pac-12

SEC 

Non-AQ/Independent 

The championship game will consist of two teams, each representing one category.

2011 USA Today Coaches' Poll

From the poll, I've categorized teams four ways: 

• Contenders (1-6): Within the upper half of one standard deviation (6.31) of the mean participant preseason ranking (6.19). 16 teams or 61.5% of BCS Championship Game participants began the season in the top 6. These teams are have a 7-9 record with the most recent winner being Alabama 2009.   
• Hopefuls (7-12): Within the lower half of the one standard deviation. 5 or 19.2% of teams that made the BCS Championship game started here. These teams have a 3-2 record with the most recent winner being 2006 Florida.  
• Long-shots (13-18): Within two standard deviations. Only 2 teams (7.7%) from this range have made the BCS Championship Game and they have a 1-1 record with LSU 2003 being the last to win.  
• Stranger Things Have Happened (19-25): Within three standard deviations. Again, only 2 teams (7.7 %) have made it from this range but both have won, including 2010 Auburn and 2000 Oklahoma.

Here is the 2011 Coaches' Preseason Poll: 

1.   Oklahoma (42)

2.   Alabama (13)

3.   Oregon (2)

4.   LSU (2)

5.   Florida State

6.   Stanford

7.   Boise State

8.   Oklahoma State

9.   Texas A&M

10.   Wisconsin

11.   Nebraska

12.   South Carolina

13.   Virginia Tech

14.   Arkansas

15.   TCU

16.   Ohio State

17.   Michigan State

18.   Notre Dame

19.   Auburn

20.   Mississippi State

21.   Missouri

22.   Georgia

23.   Florida

24.   Texas

25.   Penn State  

Conference Participation

This graph measures the total percentage of a conference’s participation in the title game for all 26 teams. Of course, since there are two teams from different conferences participating, no single conference could have greater than 50 percent.

The SEC and Big 12 lead the way with seven teams each (7-0 record SEC),  (2-5 Big 12), Big Ten with three (1-2), Big East with three (1-2),  ACC with three (1-2) and the Pac 12 with 3 (1-2).

Since 2003, the championship game has been solely comprised of teams from the SEC, Big XII, Big 10, and Pac 10. The ACC's three appearances came from Florida State, the last being in 1999. The Big East's claim to fame was through Miami and Virginia Tech, both of which are now in the ACC. No Non-AQ or Independent has ever made it.

*Big East participants are no longer associated with that conference.

ACC

Contenders: Florida State

Hopefuls: NONE

Long shots: Virginia Tech 

Stranger Things Have Happened: NONE

When the ACC raided the Big East, it looked to become a football superpower. This however, has yet to materialize.

While the conference boasts some quality teams and tremendous parity, it lacks an elite leader. Virginia Tech has been the closest over the last nine years, but the Seminoles seem to be once again on the rise. 

Florida State has two big out of conference games in the regular season. None bigger than when Florida State hosts No. 1 Oklahoma in a game that may knock out the loser but certainly puts the winner in the driver's seat. The critical conference game could be a potential ACC Championship game against Virginia Tech as well as the matchup with hated rival Florida.  

No. 5 has historically been a very good position, as it is the median starting point for BCS Champions. 

For Virginia Tech, No. 13 has never made the championship game, but its unquestionably a reasonable starting place. Tech currently has zero ranked teams on their schedule so winning out and beating FSU in the ACC Championship would be critical.

The ACC seems to be a two-team league this year with FSU leading the way. Should the Seminoles beat the Sooners, the ACC will be in great shape.  

Big East

Contenders: NONE

Hopefuls: NONE

Long-shots: NONE 

Stranger Things Have Happened: NONE

The Big East seems to always have to defend themselves and exceed expectations. This would be a good year for that to happen again with zero ranked teams. West Virginia comes in at 27th while South Florida and Pittsburgh also received votes. 

The conference has produced some good teams in recent years but like the ACC, has lacked and elite team. The conference has sometimes been close; West Virginia had it in 2007 before losing at home to a bad Pitt team, and in 2009, Cincinnati went undefeated only to finish third in the BCS and be blown out by Florida in the Sugar Bowl. 

West Virginia can put the conference on the map by beating SEC powerhouse LSU when the Tigers visit Morgantown in late September. Should the Mountaineers win that game and run the table, they may find themselves in New Orleans this January.

Big 10

Contenders: NONE

Hopefuls: Wisconsin, Nebraska 

Long-shots: Ohio State, Michigan State

Stranger Things Have Happened: Penn State

This is a huge year for the Big Ten and the dominant team of the last decade is in an excellent position to make a title run.

At No. 2, Ohio State inherits the spot most represented in title games (7) and more importantly the most wins. No. 2 is where you want to be, and frankly a spot in the championship is theirs to lose.

With a stronger Big Ten and a tough out of conference game against Miami, the Buckeyes are primed for success. 

Iowa at No. 10, also just falls in the range of contender. Twice a No. 10 has made it, with one win and one loss. The Hawkeyes are in an excellent spot to make a run with difficult conference games at home (Penn State, Ohio State) and a tough road game at Arizona.

Other quality Big Ten teams include No. 12 Wisconsin, the same spot Ohio State won from in 2002, and No. 14 Penn State. Both teams have a reasonable shot to make it if they win out. Penn State will be tested early at Alabama; should they win, everything changes. 

Big 12

Contenders: Oklahoma

Hopefuls: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Long-shots: NONE

Stranger Things Have Happened: Missouri, Texas

In its first year with 10 teams and without a championship game, the Big 12 looks like it will be just fine (at least for now). With half the conference ranked, including No. 1 Oklahoma, and a round-robin schedule, plenty of competition will take place this year.

The top-ranked Sooners clearly lead the way, although only 2 of 13 No. 1 ranked teams have ever won the BCS Championship Game, the most recent being 2004 USC when they throttled the Sooners. The last No. 1 to make it was 2006 Ohio State. Looking forward, Oklahoma plays a critical out-of-conference game at No. 5 Florida State in Tallahassee, as well as the four ranked Big 12 teams. Destiny in in their hands, and should they win out, OU will return to New Orleans.

Oklahoma State and Texas A&M are also in enviable positions to start the season. At No. 8, OSU has seen 2006 Florida ascend to the championship game. 8 is  the average preseason ranking for BCS Championship winners and the statistical trend (8.8) for the winners—definitely good stats to have on your side. With the Big 12 gauntlet as well as Arizona, they should be in great shape if they win out. The Cowboys also have the Sooners at home.   

At No. 9, Texas A&M can not look to history to find a champion from that spot, but it is certainly a strong poll position. The Aggies have the Big 12 along with a tough Arkansas team. Like the others: win and they should be in.

Missouri and Texas also factor into the Championship picture, and Auburn ascended from 23 just last year. However, that seems unlikely to happen again. 

The Big 12 has made it seven times, and an eighth seems very reasonable. 

PAC-12

Contenders: Oregon, Stanford 

Hopefuls: NONE

Long-shots: NONE

Stranger Things Have Happened: NONE 

The Pac 12 is again without their big dog this year, the program that has carried the conference over the last 8 years: USC. However, the conference may be at its strongest this year as it begins with two serious contenders in Oregon and Stanford. Neither a No. 3 or a No. 6 have ever made the BCS Championship game, but both fall within the range of 60 percent.

With USC eliminated this year, the new Pac 12 drops off significantly in terms of title contenders. Oregon will be tested early with LSU and then Nevada out of conference. Though without other serious contenders until Stanford, the Ducks still face a difficult Pac 12 challenge, including USC.

Stanford faces similar conference challenges, including USC with Notre Dame serving as their toughest challenge out of conference.

Without question, the Oregon/Stanford game in Palo Alto will be huge, and may possibly serve as a national semi-final.   

SEC

Contenders: Alabama, LSU 

Hopefuls: South Carolina 

Long-shots: Arkansas

Stranger Things Have Happened: Auburn, Mississippi State, Georgia, Florida 

Here we are at the big boys, winners of seven titles including the last five. The SEC starts the year with eight ranked teams, five in the West and three in the East.

Alabama is the clear favorite, statistically and otherwise. No. 2 boasts the most title appearances with seven, and three championship victories.  

LSU is not far behind at No. 4, a position with two championship game appearances. As mentioned, LSU faces a brutal out-of-conference schedule with Oregon and at West Virginia in addition to the showdown in T-Town in early November.

South Carolina at No. 12 is also in a position to strike, the same starting point for the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes. Carolina has a manageable out-of-conference slate highlighted by hated rival Clemson, and avoids both Alabama and LSU. 

No. 14 Arkanas just misses the first two tiers, but is right in there. Four additional teams: No. 19 Auburn, No. 20 Mississippi State, No. 22 Georgia, and No. 23 Florida remain in the hunt as well. 

Keep in mind, a No. 23 ranked Auburn team won last year, but it would seem improbably to for a team ranked so low to win two years in a row. 

Non AQ/Independent

Contenders: Boise State

Hopefuls: TCU, Notre Dame

Long-shots: NONE

Stranger Things Have Happened: NONE  

This is again a very interesting year for the non-AQ teams from Mountain West.

At No. 7, Boise State is again a legitimate contender and may make a huge statement in Week 1 against Georgia in Atlanta. The Broncos also face new conference rival TCU and former nemesis, Nevada. While a No. 7 has never made the big game, the LSU Tigers claimed the title in 2003 from that position—same as TCU. 

The defending Rose Bowl Champions probably have an easier road facing Baylor and a very good Air Force team in week 2 as well as BYU prior to the showdown on the blue turf.

Notre Dame is again in the preseason rankings at No. 18. Time will tell for the Irish.  

Despite changes, the same storyline remains: If Boise or TCU go undefeated, will they finally get in? We will see. 

The Finalists

I certainly don’t classify these picks and predictions, but according to the numbers, the teams in bold have a good chance to move on. I've considered teams ranked in the top 12 from each conference/classification. In the history of the BCS, 80 percent of the teams have come from this group.  

Alabama/LSU/South Carolina: I'm not eliminating the SEC, and statistically there is no reason to do so as the conference has a recent history of success and with two teams ranked in the top 4 as well as another at 12, it would be hard to pick against them. Alabama has an slight edge over LSU through their rank, the fact that their game is at home and LSU faces Oregon out of conference, simply adding another significant hurdle. Also, No. 2 has the best history of reaching the game of any ranking. I'll roll with the tide. 

Wisconsin/Nebraska: Newcomer Nebraska is an attractive pick, but Wisconsin has the numbers in its favor, in addition to hosting the Huskers. Also, No. 10 Tennessee won the whole thing in 1998 and 2007 Ohio State reached the game from 10. This is a tough call, but I'm on with Wisconsin.  

Oklahoma State/Oklahoma/Texas A&M: The Big XII is another tough conference to rule out, as a representative has played in half of the championship games, including two of the last three, and the conference has three highly ranked teams. Oklahoma is the clear favorite at No.1, but faces a brutal test in Tallahassee and has to travel down the road to Stillwater. Despite this advantage, both the average and the statistical trend fall between 8 and 9, or OSU and A&M. Since the Cowboys host Oklahoma and do not have a difficult out-of-conference match-up like A&M (Arkansas) or Oklahoma, I'm picking the Cowboys in a shocker to represent the Big 12.  

Stanford/Oregon: The Pac 12 has two heavyweights, and neither are USC. Stanford gets the slight edge simply because the Ducks have a greater chance to lose out of conference and the big game between the Ducks and Cardinal will be in Palo Alto. 

Boise State: Same story, different year. Yes, the Broncos have a chance, but how far they can move remains a mystery. They may make it, but the numbers and history just don't support it.

Florida State: The Seminoles are the true wild card here. Given their weak conference schedule, Oklahoma is likely a must-win. If they do prevail and avoid any conference pitfalls, they could be poised for the the big dance for the first time in 11 years. 

Prediction

Here is the bottom line: In the history of the BCS, a title game has never been without either a No. 1 or No. 2 or a representative from either the Big XII or SEC. Not a single one. So  11/13 games have featured either a No. 1 or No. 2 and 11/13, and either a Big XII or SEC team. I'm rolling with No. 2 Alabama from the SEC to face No. 8 Oklahoma State from the Big XII. 

Alabama Crimson Tide:

Alabama fits both tests: SEC and they are ranked 1 or 2. This not a bold pick but it was easy when considering their pedigree and ranking. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys:

There it is. Oklahoma State. Riding certain trends, the Cowboys make it because of their placement and their conference. Oklahoma State's preseason ranking is both the average starting place for BCS Champions as well as the current statistical trend for champions.

And the winner is...

Oklahoma State. Over the last 13 years, the BCS champions started the year 3.92 spots higher than the BCS runner up, meaning the lesser ranked team has won 9 of 13 times, favoring Oklahoma. For this to come true, it would have to snap another streak, the SEC's 7-0 record in Championship Games.