Altanta Braves Trade Rumors: Maybe Braves Should Hold Tight

I'll admit it.  I was one of the many Braves fans to post an article on which players Atlanta should target at the trade deadline.

The more I think about it, the more I think I may be wrong.

As of the morning of July 19, the Braves are 2.5 games out of first place in the NL East and own the fourth-best record in baseball.  This has been done with very little production from Jason Heyward, Dan Uggla and Jordan Schafer, and Chipper Jones has been nicked up, as always.  

Uggla is already turning his season around.  Since July 4, he has raised his average .016 and is now at .189.  Uggla has been known to go on absurd hot streaks.  Now that he's getting his confidence back, he will be the big right-handed bat Atlanta thought it was getting last offseason.  I'm thinking Uggla ends the year with an average north of .230, paired with another 30 homer season.

I, for one, believe Heyward will turn his season around in a big way.  Aside from a sore foot holding him out of July 18th's game, Heyward is healthy and just needs to start gaining some confidence.  Like Uggla, if he can get started, his immense talent will take over, and he will give the Braves a very big bat in the middle of the order.  I'm tired of Heyward hitting ground balls, but I think the loft will come soon enough.

Every Braves fan is tired of watching Alex Gonzalez strike out, but this must be remembered: Gonzalez is a career .246 hitter with good pop from his position, acquired because he can pick it with the best at short.  Baseball is a game of averages, and Gonzalez will heat up a little in the second half.  But his true value lies in the positive influence he brings to the clubhouse, his leadership, and his slick fielding at short.

With Jones returning, Martin Prado will return to left field, and consistent offensive production will continue from both third and left.  A stopgap may be required at third base from Jones to Edward Salcedo once Jones retires, but that may not be for another few years—in time for Salcedo to develop.  

When Jones needs time off, Prado will play third, and Eric Hinske or Nate McLouth will play left.  I don't think McLouth is this awful, but Hinske should be the primary backup until McLouth makes something of himself.

Lastly, we approach center field.  This is where most everyone declares Atlanta needs help.  While Hunter Pence, Denard Span and B.J. Upton would all be nice to have in center field, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez, among other Braves coaches, believes in Schafer.  

Gonzalez recently quizzed his coaches, asking who among Schafer, McLouth and Heyward owned the highest on-base percentage this year.  He got a resounding chorus of replies of "Schafer."  

The correct answer was McLouth, to which Gonzalez chuckled and said, "...but you feel like Schafer is doing so much more."

I don't know what the Atlanta front office has in plan for Schafer, but Gonzalez believes in him.  It would be nice to see Schafer own the center field job and hit around .280 the rest of the way. 

With Schafer in the lineup, Atlanta is 31-15. When he records at least one hit, Atlanta is 22-6.  And when he scores at least one run, Atlanta is 18-3.  Like it or not, Schafer seems to be the straw that stirs the Braves' drink, so to speak.

If Atlanta holds tight with Schafer in center and Gonzalez at short, there is really only one trade rumor to address: the shipping of Derek Lowe.

To state the obvious, Lowe has a very bad contract, due $15 million next year.  I would love to have that contract off the books.  I would rather have Lowe's contract off Atlanta's hands than prospects in return, but Detroit, Lowe's main suitor, wants Atlanta to pay the majority of the contract.  If this is the case, Atlanta needs some position player prospects in return.  

With Lowe, Atlanta knows exactly what it's getting: a workhorse with an ERA in the low to mid fours.  During the season, he can be inconsistent, but the main reason for keeping Lowe is for the postseason.  He is a big game pitcher with a lot of postseason experience—a 3.21 era in 95.1 innings in the playoffs.  Granted, nearly 20 of those innings was as a reliever, but these are impressive postseason stats nonetheless.  

On the other hand, trading Lowe could either be a cash dump or a decent prospect haul. It would give Mike Minor a chance to step into the rotation for good.  I'd like for Julio Teheran to work on his breaking ball a little more, but he's only 20 years old...he'll have time for that.  

Minor is ready now and would serve as a decent fifth starter for Atlanta.  In the postseason, Minor might not even pitch anyway, with Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens headlining the potent Braves rotation and Brandon Beachy performing very well.  

*As a side note: I would be willing to trade Lowe for Tim Wakefield, straight up, as long as Boston ate Lowe's contract.  Now, Wakefield is my favorite pitcher in the majors...but objectively, knuckleballers can be extremely beneficial to a team.

In conclusion, Atlanta doesn't need to make a deal.  The offense will improve on its own with Heyward and Uggla heating up, Jones returning, and offensive strongholds Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman tearing it up.  Gonzalez believes Schafer can perform well out of Atlanta's leadoff spot for the rest of the year...and quite frankly, that's a pretty solid vote of confidence.

The one trade with the biggest chance of being completed would be the shipment of Lowe out of Atlanta.  Atlanta would lose a big game pitcher, but with the current 1-2-3 punch it has, it might not even need another postseason starter.  If Lowe is traded, I would want it to be a cash dump—specifically to Boston for Wakefield.  But if there isn't a team out there wanting Lowe's contract, I would be fine with a prospect haul.

Atlanta's offense will be fine.  Schafer is still a question mark, but things might be looking up.  Lowe could be traded, which would be fine with me, especially since the team's starting pitching is such a strength.  In the end, however, I would be very surprised to see a big name find its way to Atlanta at the trade deadline.  *Revision-In order to clarify my thoughts-I wanted to say that I would be more than happy to acquire a backup right handed hitting outfielder and a utility infielder, such as Ryan Ludwick and Omar Infante.  This article is here to explain that Atlanta needs not make a big move for Hunter Pence or Carlos Beltran, that only small moves need be made.

If you're looking for a baseball blog to read every now and then, please visit mine at gasolinesuitbaseball.blogspot.com.  The blog is just for fun, but it would be greatly appreciated.