Albert Pujols: Why the St. Louis Cardinals Should Mull Cutting Ties with Him

Albert Pujols made it clear before spring training that he did not want to discuss a contract extension during the 2011 season. And the St. Louis Cardinals' front office seemed content to sit back and watch the season unfold with the topic of perhaps the franchise's best player ever being as much about money as home runs, RBI, MVPs and World Series titles.

As the baseball season reaches its midway point, and Pujols on the pine with a fractured wrist, general manager John Mozeliak must endure his Cardinals' 9-15 June swoon while his star slugger mends for another month. Like many GMs facing a key offseason decision, Mozeliak must consider all the team's options, including a trade as the July 31 non-waiver deadline will arrive roughly at the same time as his return to the field.

Although it seems unlikely that a team would put together a trade package that the Cardinals can't turn down, the possibility exists for an intrepid organization to make a big splash by offering a star player or two, plus some top prospects.

Certainly in the hypothetical, if Mozeliak were to be approached by, say, the Nationals with a package that included Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen, the Cardinal executive would be foolish not to at least strongly consider the move.

And there are several reasons why such a brave decision would require the most careful consideration.

1. Monetary Considerations

The Cardinals have three players—Matt Holliday ($17 million), Kyle Lohse ($11.8 mil) and Jake Westbrook ($8.5 mil)—under contract for 2012 plus team options on Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina.

This is going to be a huge winter in St. Louis, whether Pujols is part of it or not. Veteran Lance Berkman, arguably the team's MVP in the first half, signed a one-year, $8 million contract last December, and soon it must be determined if he's worthy of an extension. Many players have great numbers in the final year of their contracts, and the 35-year-old Berkman has been on the disabled list four times since 2005.

Pujols will likely command somewhere around $30 million per year for, say, seven years—a huge investment for any organization, much less the Cardinals, who like throwing around big-money deals like they do manhole covers.

Is that money better spent in other areas? If the team is bound to its $105 million team payroll for 2012 and beyond, does it make sense to commit roughly half of it to two players? A $30 mil payout to Pujols through 2018 and the $17 mil the Cards already have committed to Holliday through 2016 would represent 45% of a $105 mil player budget.

Yes, manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have worked miracles in the past reviving careers of scrap-heap pitchers (i.e., Dave Stewart, Dennis Eckersley and Joel Piñeiro). But does signing Pujols handcuff a team to the point where financial pressures dictate other player moves? Can the Cardinals afford to exercise their option on Carpenter's $15 million deal?

Organizations these days have to take note of the monetary debacle that's happening with the Mets and Dodgers and tread carefully with any future long-term commitments it makes. The Mets owe Bobby Bonilla around $30 million after deferring a $5.9 million debt, even though his Mets' career ended in 1999. The Dodgers have similar arrangements with former players Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones.

The Albert Belle-Baltimore partnership, the Alex Rodriguez deal with Texas and the Vernon Wells contract with Toronto are other examples of mega-contracts that have set organizations back for years.

There seems to always be SOME team that will fork over ridiculous money in exchange for a publicity blitz. Re-signing Pujols would not constitute that for St. Louis; in fact, they would be avoiding a P.R. nightmare by re-upping and not letting him fly away through free agency with only a first-round draft pick in compensation.

Division titles and World Series appearances are not achieved through public relations tactics, but by sound, level-headed decision-making, resource allocation, talent evaluation and a proven support system.

2. Trade Value

What trade value does Albert have? Well, among the top spenders in the majors, realistically, none. The Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies are entrenched at the position, having signed Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Howard, respectively, to lucrative, long-term contracts.

But that does not mean there are teams out there that wouldn't make a play for Pujols. As a number of playoff contenders struggle to find offense, making quiet overtures to the Cardinals about acquiring the three-time MVP makes sense along several lines.

This being strictly speculation, teams like the Angels and Giants could use a big bat in the lineup. Los Angeles really hasn't been the same club since it lost Kendry Morales to injury while celebrating a walk-off home run. This year, still without Morales, the Angels are 11th in the American League in runs and 10th in homers.

San Francisco desperately needs offense as it eyes a defense of its World Series crown from a year ago. The Giants lead the N.L. West but rank next-to-last in runs scored, 13th in batting average and 14th in slugging.

Also, a team like the Nationals could also creep into the picture. Washington has been aggressive in the free-agent market, recently convincing right fielder Jason Werth to come to the nation's capital on a seven-year, $126 million deal.

The Cubs have long been rumored as a possible destination for the Cardinal All-Star, as they would love to pluck a player off its top rival's roster while helping themselves at the same time.

All four teams mentioned here have some young players worthy of a look. The Angels possess the talents of the No. 1 overall minor leaguer, ranked by MLB.com, in outfielder Mike Trout, who is batting .325, with nine triples, nine homers and 26 stolen bases at Class-AA Arkansas.

San Francisco has a glut of quality young starting pitching, including lefty Madison Bumgarner. And catcher Buster Posey is quickly emerging as one of the game's top catchers who may be in need of a position change to first.

Washington, of course, has the No. 1 overall picks in 2009 and 2010, in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. Strasburg s on the mend following Tommy John surgery last year, while Harper is hitting .322 with 14 homers and 13 stolen bases for Class-A Hagerstown of the South Atlantic League.

The Cubs have one of the best young shortstops in the game in Starlin Castro.

3. Other Options at First

No doubt, the Cardinals lineup would look a lot different without Albert Pujols manning the No. 3 spot. But St. Louis does have options within its system, and make no mistake, Mark Hamilton's showing the next few weeks will go a long way toward giving the team a viable alternative at first base.

Hamilton, who will turn 27 next month, has been a solid contributor in the minor leagues since he was drafted in the second round in 2006 out of Tulane, where he was the Conference USA Player of the Year.

He hit 19 home runs with 90 RBI in his first full pro season, splitting time between High-A Palm Beach and Class-AA Springfield. He hit .307 with 14 homers in 94 games combined between Springfield and Class-AAA Memphis in 2009, despite battling a nagging groin problem.

He hit .298 with 20 bombs last year in just 81 games, and batted .385 in 27 contests this year with Memphis before being recalled for a second time on June 21, right after Pujols' wrist injury. Hamilton is a natural left-handed-throwing first baseman, having played almost the entirety of his minor-league career at that position.

Although Lance Berkman has been playing first base, it does not appear he is a long-term solution at that position because of the strain all that bending creates to his balky knees.

4. Is He Really Worth the Money?

Most people remember the last thing they see of a player before he hits the free-agent market. If Albert Pujols continues to struggle (by his lofty standards) after his return from injury, it may affect his ability to receive that 10-year, $300 million deal his agent, Dan Lozano, has been tossing out there for several months.

Pujols, 31, will be joining the free-agent frenzy along with fellow first baseman, Milwaukee's Prince Fielder, who is having an MVP-caliber season, batting .306 with 21 homers and 68 RBI for the only team that currently sits above the Cards in the N.L. Central standings. Fielder, 27, is hitting .300 for the first time in his career and has cut way down on his strikeouts. He's averaged 131 Ks in his first five seasons, but he has whiffed just 44 times this year, which projects to about 89 in a full season.

Fielder is four years younger and has never been on the disabled list.

It remains to be seen which All-Star first baseman will command more money, but one thing is for certain—Pujols' injury isn't helping his leverage. GM John Mozeliak has hinted that the Cardinals' 10-year offer that was rejected in February does not necessarily stand, and could be reduced.

Mozeliak has no doubt gauged the market, but he better be correct in this area. He will definitely feel the wrath of the Cardinal faithful if his low-ball offer gets trumped by the Cubs, or any other team for that matter.

That is another factor that could prompt the team to deal Pujols and rid themselves of the off-season angst, while collecting some quality players who have their best years ahead of them.

5. A Player in His 30s Getting a 10-Year Deal?

Let's face it—even great players start a decline in production at some point. And when a player hits the Big 3-0, that's usually a signal to beware of long-term deals.

For as great a player as he is, and what he means to this organization, there WILL come a time when he can no longer play in St. Louis, whether it's 2012 or 2020.

Though he's still one of the 10 greatest players of all time, consider this little regression of batting average over the last four years for Phat Albert: .357 (in 2008), .327, .312 and .279 (in 73 games this year).

That would make any wise GM carefully consider whether or not to hand out a fat, 10-year contract to a player in his 30s.

If you look at Alex Rodriguez, a player who is somewhat comparable in influence and production during his career, the Yankees signed him to a 10-year deal in 2008 worth $275 million, but his annual salary drops each year from 2011 to 2016. He earns $31 mil this year, then drops off to $29, $28, $25, $21 and $20, when in 2016 he will be 40.

Part of what makes A-Rod's contract appealing to the Yankees in his pursuit of Barry Bonds' career home-run record. Rodriguez currently has 13 homers this year, and 626 for his career. If A-Rod averaged 30 homers a year (a figure he's achieved every season the past 13 years), he will catch Bonds' 762 sometime in the year 2015.

Four years younger, Pujols sits at 425 long balls and still has a legitimate shot to reach that figure and beyond. He'd need to average about 40 home runs for eight seasons to get in that ballpark.