Pittsburgh Pirates: Could Garrett Jones Be a Weaker "Bautista"?

The Pittsburgh Pirates don't need to re-sign Derrek Lee as a first baseman. Or take another flyer on the likes of Lyle Overbay. Because with the emergence of Alex Presley as a good-hitting outfielder, they now have a ready-made solution in Garrett Jones, who can, and should, be moved full time to that spot.

Last night, Jones scored two runs that made the difference in the 9-8 free-for-all against Milwaukee. That's because he walked twice (his one hit went for nought). In this regard, he is reminiscent of the "late" (to the Pirates) and now great, Jose Bautista.

The parallels are in some ways striking: Jones had just turned 28 when he made his mark in the second half of 2009. Bautista was just shy of his 29th birthday when he started making his mark (if you date his breakout to September 2009).

When he made his debut in 2009, Jones hit 21 home runs in half a season. Had he maintained that pace over a whole season, he would have hit 42, the kind of number, one might associate nowadays with Bautista. (And Jones actually started his run a couple months before Bautista.)

In some ways, Jones has more to work with than Bautista. Jones is some four inches taller, and 35 pounds heavier.

In 2009, Jones benefited from a high BABIP (batting average of base on balls). It's dropped about 50 points to below normal levels between then and now, largely explaining the .040+ plus drop in his batting average to about .250. That would have been a "Bautista" like number LAST year.

And like Bautista, Jones has a high on base percentage (OBP). That's a key metric that suggests an above average ability to draw walks.  It is a sign of plate discipline, not swinging at bad pitches. And it may do a lot to explain Bautista's (and Jones') home run hitting abilities, by identifying good ones.

Nearly 45 percent of Jones' contacted balls are fly balls. Bautista's is just over 45 percent. But Jones' INFIELD fly ball rate of 9 percent is just over half of Bautista's. Meaning that the remainder go into the outfield. In this regard, Jones can "out Bautista" Bautista.

The other ingredient in Bautista's success is a ratio of over 20 home runs per 100 fly balls. Jones' ratio is improving and has improved slightly in 2011 from just over 11 in 2010. Topping 20 percent is not out of the question for him, because he did so in 2009. That, in fact, was why he was (today's) Bautista for half a season.

Bautista found himself in a "platoon" role in Toronto before his breakout. Jones exists in such a role right now in Pittsburgh. This could have been to his benefit. One should think of it as a development opportunity for Jones, not a step on the way out. The French said it best: Reculer pour mieux sauter: (Pull back in order to jump ahead.)

Jones is a far cry from the current Bautista. But he is actually better than the "old" (pre-2010) one. More to the point, he could be a reasonable facsimile of Bautista if you assume that he will eventually regain his former "high water marks" on key metrics.

IMHO, potential "Bautistas" are not as rare as most baseball aficionados seem to believe. They do exist is "strange places" (like older players), which is why they might be overlooked for development. And it does take some good coaching (which Bautista got, and Jones may not).

Ultimately, it's a question of identifying, nurturing, and KEEPING them. The Pirates threw away one, but fortunately have a "second chance." Garrett Jones is my (local) candidate for the next Bautista.