NBA Offseason 2011: 10 Biggest Questions for the Offseason
A champion has been crowned and the champagne has been sprayed, which means we are now fully immersed in the 2011 NBA offseason.
As usual, many questions loom this summer; however, all must be analyzed with a unique and incredibly depressing caveat hanging over our heads: the lockout.
"Lockout" has officially become my least favorite word in sports. Unfortunately, it will appear multiple times throughout this article, because, well, it's kind of important.
Nobody knows what the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will look like. No one knows what effects it will have on free agency or the salary cap. And no one knows when next season will actually start.
All we know is that no basketball = bad.
With that said, here are the ten biggest questions (some fully lockout related, others only partially) that will be answered at some point during this summer.
What Happens to Yao Ming and Greg Oden?
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The NBA's two oft-injured giants find themselves on the free agent market, Yao as an unrestricted free agent, Oden as a restricted one.
Both were thought of as once-in-a-lifetime big men, but have suffered strings of devastating injuries that have left their careers in jeopardy.
It's been incredibly sad to watch these two enormously talented men struggle so mightily because their bodies have failed them.
Oden is still just 23 years old and will certainly pique the curiosity of a couple teams who are looking for a backup center. Although it is highly unlikely that he will ever be the game-changing center he was once touted as, he could still have a place in the league.
Yao's future is much more uncertain.
He told the China Daily a few days ago, "I don't even know if I can play again."
It would be awfully difficult for him to sign with a new team after spending 10 years in Houston, and his impending free agency puts the Rockets in a very awkward position.
Yao has been so important to the success of their franchise internationally, but is it logical to offer a contract to a man who may never play basketball again?
Both are extremely sad and fascinating situations, and it will be interesting to see how they play out.
Who Do the Chicago Bulls Bring in as an Upgrade at Shooting Guard?
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The Chicago Bulls undeniably need an upgrade at shooting guard, as lack of scoring help for Derrick Rose was their downfall in the playoffs.
The Bulls will again be title contenders next season, but more scoring on the perimeter is imperative if they wish to get past the Miami Heat.
There are several options for the Bulls: hope Richard Hamilton is traded and then bought out; move up in the draft to select Klay Thompson, Alec Burks, or Marshon Brooks; try to sign free agents Jason Richardson or Jamal Crawford; attempt to trade for O.J. Mayo or Monta Ellis, both of whom have recently been on the trading block.
Signing Hamilton if he is bought out would probably be the best option given that he is a proven veteran with championship experience, would fit beautifully next to Derrick Rose, and wouldn't force the Bulls to trade any of their young big men.
However, it of course depends on Detroit trading Hamilton to a team that would buy him out (possibly the Cavs) but Chicago can't just wait around for this to happen.
Richardson and Crawford would also fit nicely, but the Bulls already have $62 million on the books next season, and both players may be too expensive.
Ellis is an electrifying scorer, but is probably too similar to Rose for that to work.
Mayo would be a great addition, but it would most likely mean losing either Omer Asik or Taj Gibson, something the Bulls have been reluctant to do in the past.
And while the three rookies all have promising futures, this team is built to win right now. Trusting an unproven rookie come playoff time is not an ideal situation to be in.
Chicago will upgrade at shooting guard, because it is such a glaring need. However, which man they bring in is much more uncertain.
How Many Mavericks Role Players Stick Around?
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The newly crowned NBA champions have six unrestricted free agents, all of whom played a key role at some point during their unexpected run to the title.
Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea, Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson, Peja Stojakovic, and Brian Cardinal all have expiring contracts and are free to sign with whatever team they choose.
Chandler and Barea are the Mavericks' top two priorities, as both were incredibly instrumental in the team's playoff success.
Alex Kennedy of Hoopsworld tweeted that he spoke to Chandler and he wants to stay in Dallas.
Barea also seems very happy in Dallas and I would be surprised if he signed elsewhere.
Butler has also said he intends to stay in Dallas, and the Mavericks would be wise to bring him back for his ability to score on the perimeter.
Stevenson, Stojakovic, and Cardinal all had their moments at some point during the postseason, but the Mavericks may not be able to afford to keep them all.
It will be interesting to see which role players return and which take their services elsewhere.
What Will the Heat Roster Look Like Next Season?
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Like the Mavericks, the Miami Heat will have a lot of decisions to make regarding their role players.
Mike Bibby, Erick Dampier, Eddie House, Juwan Howard, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, James Jones, and Jamaal Magloire are all unrestricted free agents. Mario Chalmers is a restricted free agent.
I say the Heat should bring back Jones and Chalmers, and let everyone else walk.
Howard and Ilgauskas will likely retire, Magloire and Dampier are completely useless, and Bibby and House are too abysmal defensively to hide.
Jones is a dead-eye three point shooter and should be retained for that one skill alone.
Chalmers was the only Miami player who exceeded expectations in the Finals, playing with aggression and showing that he was not the least bit scared of the big stage. He's also an excellent defender and doesn't need to score to be effective.
Aside from the Big 3, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, and Joel Anthony are the only players on the books next season. Add in Chalmers and Jones and you've got a solid 8-man rotation.
Now the Heat just need to cut the dead weight, hope for some better luck injury-wise, and add some young talent that can blossom alongside the Big 3.
What Players Could Retire During the Lockout?
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With the uncertainty of the impending lockout, many players may simply retire rather than go through an extended offseason.
This is purely speculation, but the following elder statesmen will at least consider retirement at some point this summer: Kurt Thomas, Juwan Howard, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Grant Hill, Vince Carter, Jason Kidd, Theo Ratliff, Marcus Camby, Derek Fisher, Ben Wallace, Peja Stojakovic, Jermaine O'Neal, Antwan Jamison, Anthony Parker, Brad Miller, Jeff Foster, James Posey, Joe Smith, Mike Bibby, Earl Boykins, Tony Battie, Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, Raja Bell, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett.
All of these players will ride off into the sunset at some point in the next couple years, and the lockout could push them to retire earlier than initially expected.
The NBA will be a very different place without the names on that list.
Will Players Look for Work Overseas During Lockout?
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Back in January, Dirk Nowitzki made headlines by saying he would look to play in Germany if the 2011-2012 NBA season was cancelled, and many other players said they'd be interested in doing something similar.
However, it's very unlikely that our superstars will be playing overseas next season.
Unrestricted free agents are free to sign wherever and whenever, and could certainly take their talents to Europe if they wish. Josh Childress did it just a few years ago.
But FIBA will not accept players who have contractual obligations in the NBA.
FIBA spokesman Florian Wanninger had this to say: "In the event of an NBA work stoppage or players' strike, it would have first to be determined whether the players are still under a valid contract. If this were the case, players cannot play elsewhere. A contrario, if contracts are not valid any longer, they are free to transfer."
So, if contracts were deemed invalid by FIBA, all players would be free to sign with a team in another league, should they choose to do so.
It's just highly unlikely that all contracts would suddenly be deemed invalid.
In all likelihood, the top-tier NBA players will be staying put. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a few low-level free agents bolt for Europe rather than wait for the NBA season to start.
What Available Free Agents Could Take a Team to the Next Level?
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The 2011 free agency class certainly lacks the sexiness of last summer's, but there are still plenty of quality players up for grabs.
While no superstars are on the market, there are a number of players who could move a team up a notch or two on the NBA totem pole.
Here are the free agents, by position, that could really make a difference next season.
Point Guard: Aaron Brooks, Rodney Stuckey.
Shooting Guard: Jason Richardson, Jamal Crawford, Arron Afflalo, J.R. Smith, Wilson Chandler, Shannon Brown.
Small Forward: Caron Butler, Thaddeus Young, Grant Hill, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, Andrei Kirilenko.
Power Forward: David West, Carl Landry, Kenyon Martin, Glen Davis, Kris Humprhies.
Center: Nene, Marc Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Joel Pryzbilla.
Will the Lakers Trade Andrew Bynum or Pau Gasol?
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After the Lakers stunning second round sweep at the hands of the eventual champions, heads were immediately being thrown on the chopping block.
The two main scapegoats? Seven-footers Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.
Gasol had an awful playoff campaign, averaging just 13.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, well below his career postseason averages (17.9 and 9.6). He also appeared to disinterested at times, and there was speculation that something off the court was troubling him.
Bynum actually increased his production from the regular season, averaging 14.4 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. However, he capped off the Lakers' humiliating playoff run by taking an incredibly dangerous cheap shot at J.J. Barea, a man more than a foot smaller than Bynum.
After their Game 4 loss, Magic Johnson called for the team to be blown up, and Gasol and Bynum are the two best trade chips.
The Lakers desperately need to get younger and more athletic on the perimeter, and their only option may be to deal one of their big men.
However, as recently as a couple months ago, the Lakers frontcourt of Bynum, Gasol, and Lamar Odom was seen as an undeniable advantage over every other team.
Does it really make sense to trade away what made your team so dangerous in the first place?
The Lakers have some big decisions to make this offseason, and what to do with Bynum and Gasol is the most important one.
Will Chris Paul or Dwight Howard Pull a Carmelo?
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In today's NBA, superstars hold all the leverage.
This was clearly exemplified in the summer of 2010, and then again throughout last season during the Carmelo Anthony trade saga.
If a superstar wants to join a specific team, there's really nothing their current team can do to stop them.
Could the two biggest free agents of 2012—Chris Paul and Dwight Howard—force a trade to their preferred team a la Carmelo?
If either superstar approached their team with a request to be traded, then the front office would be forced to oblige. If they refused, Paul or Howard would simply walk away next summer, leaving New Orleans/Orlando with nothing in return.
The Denver Nuggets established the blueprint on how to best handle this sticky situation: bite the bullet and trade your free-agent-to-be for as many quality players as you can.
Denver did this and was able to add multiple young players who contributed in the short term and can be used as trade pieces in the long term.
Of course, Howard and Paul may decide they want to stay where they're at, and keeping their superstar is obviously the best option for each team.
But if either indicates they want to be traded, the Magic/Hornets would be smart to act quickly in order to avoid being devastated like Cleveland was last summer.
When Will We Have Basketball Again?
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After the most entertaining and most watched NBA season in years, it makes absolutely zero sense for the league to shut down business and crush its current momentum.
So why is a lockout imminent?
Well, the owners want to drastically cut player salaries, and the players want the owners to go %@!$ themselves.
The owners are upset because they are losing quite a bit of money ($300 million combined) and view owning an NBA team as a way to make a profit, rather than just a really, really expensive hobby.
The two sides are very far apart in negotiations, and commissioner David Stern said avoiding a lengthy lockout will be a "challenge."
As of now, there's really no telling when the next NBA season will start. It could be in late October as usual or the season could be eliminated entirely.
Most likely, we will lose a few months of games, and the season will kick off in February, which is what happened back in 1998.
But the sooner the lockout ends, the better it will be for all parties involved—owners, players, and fans.
