NBA Stock Report 2011: Which Direction Is Each Team's Stock Headed?
With the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat headed to the 2011 NBA Finals, it is obvious that these two teams are on the upswing. But, what about the rest of the league?
Does just making the playoffs mean that a team is getting better? Or was it a last-ditch effort with the pieces they have?
Does advancing to the second round or the conference finals mean a team is getting better? Or are they just stagnant near the top of the league?
Those are the questions I'm looking to answer right here. Consider me your NBA stockbroker, and I'll tell you whether you should buy stock in a team right now, sell quick or wait and see.
In the NBA stock market, value isn't measured in dollars, but wins and losses, playoff potential and change from year to year in the team.
So get your David Stern Bucks ready, wrench open your pocketbook and let's start off with the Atlanta Hawks and go down the league in order.
Atlanta Hawks
1 of 30
Analysis: Get ready to sell, stock falling.
The Atlanta Hawks shocked everybody this year by beating the Orlando Magic in the first round of the playoffs and dragging the Chicago series to six games, but does that mean they are getting any better?
Atlanta will probably lose their tremendous sixth man, Jamal Crawford, next year, as some team will be willing to give him good money and a starting position. But they will only end up with $6 million less in payroll next year, bringing them in at just around $64 million, $6 million over last year's salary cap, which should be either smaller or harder next year.
With not much room to add players, Joe Johnson seemingly regressing and $16 million locked up in Kirk Hinrich and Marvin Williams, Atlanta's future looks questionable, so I'd get ready to sell any Hawks stock.
Boston Celtics
2 of 30
Analysis: Sell now, stock down.
Boston hung around for most of the year, and they looked like they could contend for another title, but they got run over by the Miami Heat steamroller in the playoffs and looked old and tired.
The Celtics are only getting older and it's questionable whether the Boston core can compete among the elite like it has done for the past few years.
Their stock peaked with the championship in 2008 and has dropped off slightly since then, but I would say they are headed for a pretty decent downfall next year.
Charlotte Bobcats
3 of 30
Analysis: Sell, stock down.
If there actually was an NBA stock market, would anybody really own stock in the Charlotte Bobcats?
They have shown that they overpay for underperforming free agents (most recently Tyrus Thomas), are mediocre-to-bad at drafting (Adam Morrison anyone?) and the best they can trade for is borderline starters and role players (Joel Przybilla, Morris Peterson, DeSagana Diop).
They traded away their best player for the 19th draft pick this year, Przybilla and Dante Cunningham, so they aren't going up anytime soon.
Chicago Bulls
4 of 30
Analysis: Buy, stock up.
Comparing the Chicago Bulls at the beginning of the season to the end of the season is like comparing a box of Franzia to a nice French wine. At the beginning of the year they had a lot of fans, but nobody expected a whole lot from them; now they are a well-polished machine and have plenty of haters.
They went from moderate expectations with injuries early on to being the best team in the regular season.
Chicago is still jelling as a team and have plenty of room to get better next year. They're only a few million bucks over the salary cap, so I'd still expect the Bulls to get better at this point.
Cleveland Cavaliers
5 of 30
Analysis: BUY, BUY, BUY!
Cleveland Cavaliers stock was at its lowest point since the Stepien Era, and their stock is still super-low, so now is as good a time as any to buy.
This is a team to invest in for the long haul, as they should easily improve this year with two top-five draft picks, cap space and trade bait, but it won't be a drastic improvement.
Dallas Mavericks
6 of 30
Analysis: Buy, stock up.
The Mavericks looked way too old at the beginning of the season to compete for a title; now, here they are having won 10 of their last 11 games with a spot in the Finals.
They are more of a team than anyone ever really imagined, as most picked them to lose in the first round of the playoffs to the Portland Trail Blazers.
Dallas looks like it's got at least another year of top-notch play in them, and after a year like this, that's saying something.
Denver Nuggets
7 of 30
Analysis: Sell, stock down.
Denver had a nice run this year, ending up with the fifth seed in the playoffs and giving the Thunder a run for their money offensively, but it looks like they'll be taking a step backward this year.
There's not much out there in terms of free-agency help and two important players are likely going to be fleeing town in Nene and Kenyon Martin.
The Nuggets will still have the core that New York sent over in the Carmelo Anthony trade and a hefty number of draft picks in the next few years—but sell now, because next year won't look much like this year did for the Nuggets.
Detroit Pistons
8 of 30
Analysis: Don't buy, nothing to look at here, move along folks.
Detroit has been stagnant for the past few years, and with no real improvement or decline from last year to this year, there's not much to say about the Pistons.
They have the eighth pick in the draft, which won't help them much this year, but it won't hurt them either.
Detroit will look slightly different next year, with Rip Hamilton likely on the way out, but I don't think that will hurt their win total much either.
Golden State Warriors
9 of 30
Analysis: Don't buy until further notice.
Right now, the Golden State Warriors are a young and exciting team that can score 120 points in any given game, but that's not what gets a team into the playoffs.
If they were to learn how to play some defense they could win more than 35 or so games, but until that happens, they will never be a playoff team without a point guard who can facilitate a fast-paced offense like Steve Nash did with the Suns.
Houston Rockets
10 of 30
Analysis: Buy, stock up.
It seems that no matter what the Rockets do, they should end up getting at least marginally better next year.
They were without Yao Ming for the year, and with his contract plus Jared Jeffries', they have a salary of just $45 million next year.
They could either take a chance on re-signing Yao for another year at a much lower price and add another key piece or they could let Yao walk and swing for the fences on a pair of free agents to improve.
They have the ability to be a playoff team next year and they should be trying to get there.
Indiana Pacers
11 of 30
Analysis: Buy, stock rising.
After Danny Granger, eight of the nine most important players on the Pacers made less than $2.5 million last year.
Now, they have three contracts expiring of players who weren't exactly integral to the success of the team in Mike Dunleavy, TJ Ford and Jeff Foster, giving them a payroll of just under $35 million next year.
They will probably try to lock up Foster, who has been important in years past but was injured last year. But with the rest of the space, they should just be looking to spend money or buy draft picks.
Los Angeles Clippers
12 of 30
Analysis: Buy, stock up.
For a while during the season, people were talking about the Clippers possibly making the playoffs. They had a good season, but ended up with only 32 wins.
Then everyone got down on the team for trading the draft pick that ended up winning the draft lottery, but that's all behind them now and they are looking forward to the season.
DeAndre Jordan should be their main target next season, and they should have to pay a pretty penny for him, but that team aging and jelling together should mean plenty more wins.
Los Angeles Lakers
13 of 30
Analysis: Don't sell...yet.
Keep an eye on the Lakers, a very close eye. Contrary to popular belief, Mike Brown could actually be good for this team.
Brown should be able to instill a culture of hard-nosed defense like he did in Cleveland (he helped turn LeBron James into the defender he is today) and the rest should be able to take care of itself.
Brown was criticized for his inability to make changes to his game plan when his team got down during the game, which is something he should have done with the younger team. But coaching an older team should be easier on him when it comes to game-to-game and in-game decisions.
I still think the current Lakers have another title run left in them, even if I am in the minority in that thought.
Memphis Grizzlies
14 of 30
Analysis: Should have bought two months ago, but keep buying now with skyrocketing draft stock.
Because I never get to do it (I'm good at being wrong), I have to toot my own horn. My upset pick for the first round of the playoffs wasn't Portland over Dallas like everyone else, but rather Memphis over San Antonio and ever since it happened, I've been riding the Grizzlies bandwagon hardcore.
They'll have to spend some money this summer to keep this team together, something they should end up doing, but that is just a down payment for what should be a terrific future in Memphis.
Miami Heat
15 of 30
Analysis: Really, do I have to tell you?
Miami is like Google right now. They are atop the world and they just keep getting higher.
They haven't won anything yet, and they may not, but they will still end up being even better next year.
The Heat were supposed to struggle this year and they did, but they are still in the finals and are just going to get better next year.
Milwaukee Bucks
16 of 30
Analysis: Buy, slight increase.
Milwaukee came into this season with pretty high expectations for this year after their postseason run last year, but they didn't even come close to living up to the hype.
They struggled every step of the way and when everyone expected them to pick it up in the second half, they didn't.
Now, however, they are well under the salary cap and have the ability to pick up their team, plus another year of vetting Brandon Jennings couldn't hurt.
Minnesota Timberwolves
17 of 30
Analysis: Buy, young team getting older.
Two things should contribute to the Minnesota Timberwolves getting better: The core of Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Darko Milicic and the gang are getting a year older and a year more experienced. This should lead to a more polished product overall.
Second, they have the No. 2 pick in this year's draft which could lead to a good young player or they could trade it for a more experienced guy.
And then there's the possibility of a Ricky Rubio appearance...
New Jersey Nets
18 of 30
Analysis: Buy, stock up.
If we were talking about the 2012-13 season, I'm afraid we'd be singing a very different tune about the Nets depending, of course, on what Deron Williams decides to do. But for right now, things are looking up.
They should have a full season of Williams running the point and therefore a much better chance of ending up in the playoffs at the end of next season.
New Orleans Hornets
19 of 30
Analysis: Sell, Paul could be gone.
The Hornets are fully committed to keeping Chris Paul, but Chris Paul may not be fully committed to coming back to New Orleans.
They will be pursuing a power forward who spent much of the latter half of the season with a torn ACL who probably wouldn't have done much too help him during the year in the first place.
It seems New Orleans is on the way to the basement; this year is just a quick stop off in decent-season land.
New York Knicks
20 of 30
Analysis: Buy, stock rising.
They don't have much room for free-agent signings, but that doesn't mean they won't be chasing a few choice guys and if a sign-and-trade opportunity arises, they could turn into championship contenders overnight.
They weren't supposed to be anything more than a spoiler for a potential championship team, and they didn't live up to that.
Next year could be a big year in New York.
Oklahoma City Thunder
21 of 30
Analysis: Don't buy, don't sell. Risky to do either.
The Thunder seemed to have identity problems in the playoffs with Russell Westbrook looking to do too much and Kevin Durant not doing enough at times, which could spell doom for the duo.
They got to the Western Conference finals this year, which is a step up from last year, and with only one more logical step to take, the question is whether or not they can take it.
Orlando Magic
22 of 30
Analysis: Sell. Abandon ship!
Right now, it looks like there is no way Orlando is going to end up keeping Dwight Howard with all of the sparring and rumors going around—and that spells doom for Orlando.
My guess is another Carmelo Anthony-type scenario going on, with Howard probably ending up in Los Angeles, but who really knows with today's NBA?
Meanwhile, Orlando is going to struggle internally and completely fall apart when Howard leaves, as he is the thing that holds their defense together and no other center could possibly duplicate what he does.
Philadelphia 76ers
23 of 30
Analysis: Buy, but carefully.
The 76ers could end up regressing this year and it could be what finally sends Andre Iguodala out of Philadelphia, but they could also end up coming together and getting better.
Philly has waited for Evan Turner to emerge and if he plays like he did in the last month of the season, then they could be looking at a better season than last year even.
They laid down a nice defensive base to build off last season, so I would say they'll be looking at a better season next year.
Phoenix Suns
24 of 30
Analysis: Sell, Steve is going...going...gone.
At this point, it seems as if Steve Nash is halfway out the door in Phoenix, especially with the way teams are run in the NBA right now as they routinely part out their star players on the last leg of their contracts when it's the best possible option.
Nash could very well end up re-signing with the Suns, but where does that get them?
They should realize that they would be better off starting the rebuild early by collecting draft picks and young players rather than holding onto what they have left of the run-and-gun Steve Nash Era.
Portland Trail Blazers
25 of 30
Analysis: Don't buy, too many questions.
The Blazers could go in either direction next year, but there are many questions to be answered before we really know.
What are they going to do with Greg Oden? If he does re-sign, will he stay healthy and will he play well? Which Brandon Roy will be there? Will they re-sign Andre Miller? If so, how far will a 35-year-old point guard take them?
If my arm were twisted, I would say that they will be marginally better next year, which could mean a handful more wins and possibly a better playoff performance.
Sacramento Kings
26 of 30
Analysis: Sell like the Maloofs should.
The Sacramento Kings have been as low as a team could go in the past few years, and I don't see things getting much better any time soon.
They don't seem to be meshing well as a team and when they do win a game, it seems like it's because someone has a hot hand on that particular night—something that is not a good thing to rely on in the NBA.
What's worse is that they have owners who had to trade for a guy who bruised his spinal cord (Marquis Daniels) just to get over the salary floor.
Good luck Sacramento, you'll need it.
San Antonio Spurs
27 of 30
Analysis: Sell, sell now.
If there was any secret about the Spurs dynasty possibly ending when the Grizzlies beat them in the first round of the playoffs this year, let me out that secret:
THE SPURS DYNASTY MAY BE OVER!
Every starter they had last year will be over 30 next year, with two of them topping 35, and this isn't exactly an old man's game.
Toronto Raptors
28 of 30
Analysis: Don't buy.
The Toronto Raptors couldn't get much worse, as they won only 22 games last year. Next year should be better, but it's not going to get much better.
They have the fifth pick in this year's draft, which could net them a good player, but that's the only thing they have.
With Andrea Bargnani as their franchise player, it's going to be hard to get much better, so stay away from the Raptors for the time being.
Utah Jazz
29 of 30
Analysis: Sell, bigger drop-off coming.
The Utah Jazz didn't do very well at all this year when they played without Williams, pretty much falling flat on their face as they won half as many games as they lost.
In a full season without Williams, they should do equally as bad, although they will have some cap space to work with as Andrei Kirilenko's monster contract runs out.
Washington Wizards
30 of 30
Analysis: Buy, stock up.
The tides are turning in Washington with the Wizards finally looking up after a few years of decline and nearly hitting rock bottom just over a year ago.
Thankfully, the draft lottery made sure that they wouldn't have to fall all the way, and with John Wall having nearly a year of NBA under his belt, Washington should be showing plenty of improvement next season.
