2011 NBA Mock Draft: First-Round Picks for Cavaliers and All Lottery Teams
The picks have been set, and front offices across the country are preparing to do their due diligence on this year's NBA crop. Who will wilt and who will blossom in the coming years should be the topic of choice for fans in many NBA cities.
Now that there is some clarity in the advantages (Cleveland) and disadvantages (LA Clippers, who traded their pick for Mo Williams and may have given up the top pick in the lottery) each team has been given, lets try to decide who makes the most sense for each team.
Here is a look at the first fourteen picks of this years draft with analysis on what the team needs, who the likely options are, and what the eventual pick will be.
With the 1st Pick, the Cavaliers take Derrick Williams
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I think Williams is the most sure-fire pick in this down draft, and while he may never be a superstar he will contend for the All-Star team year after year. He had a Kevin Love-esque year at Arizona, showing great rebounding prowess and making 60 percent of both his field goals and three point shots. Unbelievable.
He will be a small forward at the NBA level and will be a plus rebounder with above average shooting efficiency in the near future. He will not fall past the second pick, so whoever wins a top two slot will almost assuredly get either Williams or Irving depending on their need.
The Cavs originally were said to be hot for Kyrie, but William's had an extra year in college and may end up being a "Blake Griffin-lite" type player with his elite athleticism and finishing ability. Besides, after lucking into the first and fourth picks in this draft, the team has a couple of options at PG with their second pick.
If Williams can become a lock down defender he has all the other tools to be force in the NBA for years to come.
With the 2nd Pick, the Timberwolves take Kyrie Irving
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With Williams off the board, the Wolves are likely to go after Irving.
Irving is an almost sure-thing talent, and with Ricky Rubio leaning towards staying in Spain to avoid a potential lockout and a 50 percent pay-cut as a result of the current (and likely new) CBA, I think the Wolves finally get their man.
"KI" had a short stint at Duke, but while he only played 11 games his college averages compare favorably with Derrick Rose and John Wall. He's already a better shooter than either of them were at this stage, though he's not nearly as athletic and as a result doesn't have the upside of the two former top picks. He's also probably a more dependable ball handler, reminding some scouts of Chris Paul, so my guess is he won't turn the ball over four times a game like Rose and Wall did their rookie seasons.
They've already got Michael Beasley who turned his career around this year so bringing in a SF wasn't as big a need for the team. A starting lineup of Irving, Johnson, Beasley, Love and Milicic could be solid in a couple of years, and the team will also look to address the center position in free agency or through their other picks in the draft. Otherwise, they’ll look to Enes Kanter.
With the 3rd Pick, the Jazz take Brandon Knight
3 of 14Basically any other team would take Enes Kanter, so I think there’s a good shot they try to trade this pick for an additional first rounder. The Jazz, however, are stacked at the PF/C slot, with Mehmet Okur, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and last year’s number three pick Derrick Favors.
I think they go with one of March Madness’ biggest risers here in hopes they get their next Deron Williams. Knight is a clutch scorer and solid passer, as well as being one of the youngest players in the draft. If he grows another two inches he'll be good size for a combo guard, and he may be well suited to play time at SG given his proclivity to turn the ball over. Devin Harris is a solid option, but this way he can be shopped around to add more pieces to the team.
Knight was one of college basketball’s top recruits and broke a freshman record with 33 points earlier this season. The Jazz are considerably ahead of other teams drafting this early, so they can afford to plan for the future a bit here.
With the 4th Pick, the Cavaliers take Kemba Walker
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This would be an incredible draft for the Cavs. While I don’t think Walker is or will be one of the four best players in the draft, the team will get my overall number one and probably the most popular player a couple slots later.
The team is probably looking point guard after passing on Kyrie Irving, which I think is a great idea given either Knight or Walker will be available here. Ramon Sessions is liked around Cleveland, but I don't think he's the long term option, and Baron Davis will be gone sooner rather than later. In fact, having Baron around could be a boon for the UConn junior.
Walker is a winner and his stock exploded after the team made it's NCAA tournament run. He's not afraid to take the big shots and be a leader, which is what the team needs. He's a good ball handler and shooter, and will sell tickets for the previously down-trodden franchise.
Adding Walker and Williams may go down as one of the most fortuitous drafts in history. After getting LeBron in 2003, then being dissed by him seven years later, the Cavs get a second shot at putting together a contender.
With the 5th Pick, the Raptors take Enes Kanter
5 of 14We have limited data on Enes Kanter, but if his international showcases are any indication he can be an absolute beast in this league. Take, for example, his 34 point 13 rebound showing against Jared Sullinger in the Nike "US vs. the World" game last year. Sullinger may have been the top pick in this draft had he declared, so it's not a stretch to say Kanter could yield similar value.
While Kanter's stock hasn't really taken a hit from his NCAA ineligibility ruling, the lost season at Kentucky makes him relatively unknown. He's a power forward but could play minutes at center, and is by most accounts a smart and savvy defensive player. Same applies to his offensive abilities, as he has numerous refined post moves and a great basketball IQ.
I'm a big Kanter fan, so those of you in Toronto bemoaning this pick should not fret--I see him as a Luis Scola type player in the sense that he is already very advanced mechanically and will confuse defenders with his array of moves and sneaky-strength on the block. Think of him as the old guy in a pick-up game who has people jumping to block his shot while he pivots and lays a nice one in off the glass.
Kanter is only 19, though some dispute his exact age, so his body may continue to mature and make him an even more physical presence for the Raptors. His strengths mesh pretty well with Andrea Bargiani's, so they may quickly become a front court duo to be reckoned with.
With the 6th Pick, the Wizards take Jonas Valanciunas
6 of 14The Wizards want Kanter, but no way he lasts this far. Valanciunas is considered to be a similar talent, but the big downside is that he’s not likely to play in the NBA this season because of contract issues back in Europe.
For the Wizards, they could basically go with internationals or with some college players that would have been in the middle of the first round on boards a couple months ago. The Wizards were probably hurt hardest by the way the ping pong balls fell, and by the potential early entrants who declined to declare for the draft.
That’s not to say that I don’t like Valanciunas, who is a great defensive center whose age belies his mature game. Some boards had him as high as number two, and it might not be far off if he was likely to play in the NBA next year.
With all these considerations, look for the Wizards to shop this pick around—or trade up to get the guy they really covet in Kanter.
With the 7th Pick, the Kings Take Donatas Motiejunas
7 of 14Sam Dalembert becomes a free agent this offseason and I expect teams like the Knicks, Heat, Timberwolves and Celtics (as a start) to make a run at him. If that's the situation, and the team doesn't try to trade the headcase that is DeMarcus Cousins, Motiejunas would be a nice fit.
The team has Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton (reasonable qualifying offer, and the biggest asset acquired from the Carl Landry trade), Francisco Garcia, Beno Udrih and Omri Casspi signed through next season. While it's not the most formidable back court, if Knight and Walker are off the board I don't see them reaching for another PG.
Motiejunas is not the best rebounder despite his size, but has a great outside game and is considered the most NBA ready international prospect in the draft. At 22 he's young but a Euro League veteran with less risk than other prospects. He's probably an Andrea Bargiani comparable, and his outside game would allow Cousins to move over to center.
With all the hooplah about the team relocating, this pick will be a crucial one for the Kings. Motiejunas can make an immediate impact, and if the Kings can shed some of their guard contracts (Garcia and Udrih specifically) when the new CBA takes effect they'll look to acquire one of the many point guards on the market.
With the 8th Pick, the Pistons take Jan Vesely
8 of 14If Vesely drops this far they will be getting an athletic SF/PF who can make a difference in transition. Unlike many Euro-league talents in years past this kid has hops and loves to throw down on an opposing player.
That type of demeanor should suit him well in Detroit, where long-time swing man Tayshaun Prince will likely be leaving in free agency. Austin Daye has a similar body but is more defensively focused, so I think the two can split time playing the forward positions.
Vesely needs to work on his strength and rebounding, as well as his outside shooting. But he’s young and has lots of upside, with many picking him to go in the first five picks this season. Charlie Villanueva has been a bust on the front line, but Greg Monroe looks like he could soon be an All-Star level talent so the team would love to find the answer at PF. With Ben Wallace possibly back next season (he’s under contract) they’ll have a defensive specialist who can teach Vesely the NBA ropes.
The Pistons could go in a number of directions, much of which depends on what happens to Rodney Stuckey (do they let him leave? do they move him to off-guard?), but Ben Gordon can be a good if not great 2-guard and there aren’t any sure-fire point guards available with this pick.
With the 9th Pick, the Bobcats take Kawhi Leonard
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The Bobcats may have had their eye on Kemba Walker (MJ seems to be a bit infatuated with him) but I don’t see him lasting this far. That’s okay, because the team has a lot of needs.
Based on his contract Tyrus Thomas looks to be the option at power forward. Stephen Jackson has some years left at SG and is one of the most entertaining players in the league. And DJ Augustin and Shaun Livingston represent a decent point guard rotation, if it wasn’t enough that all the PG talent is off the board. That leaves small forward and center.
The only reason I don’t have the team looking at Bismack Biyombo is that I think MJ will go with a more proven talent, but it doesn’t hurt that they still have Boris Diaw, DeSagana Diop and DJ White eating up minutes in the front court.
That leaves Kawhi Leonard, perhaps the best perimeter defender in the draft and someone who spend a couple years proving his mettle in the NCAA. He’s got a decent shot and prototypical size for his position, and can drive to the hoop on occasion. I think he’s one of the more NBA-ready prospects out there.
But to be sure, his defense is his calling card. On a team that struggled defending anyone last season, that was a must need for them in the draft. With Kawhi they address that lock-down defender on the wing, meaning Captain Jax can expend most of his energy on the offensive end as he is wan to do.
With the 10th Pick, the Bucks take Marcus Morris
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The team has it’s point guard and center of the future in Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut, so those are not likely positional picks. They also have Drew Gooden on the payroll for another four seasons (at an undesireable $6.5 million per) and just took Larry Sanders last season to bolster their front court.
They also, for better or worse, have Corey Maggette and John Salmons for another two and three years respectively to man the 2-guard position. That leaves a solid answer at SF and Marcus Morris could be the man.
The team had trouble scoring at times last season, partly due to injuries, and has the tools to be solid defensively, so an offensive minded SF with good size makes sense.
Morris had to share the limelight in Lawrence with his twin brother Markeiff and a number of great recruits over the years. With some room to move out on his own, I think Marcus’ mature game and ability to score in a number of ways will be appealing to a lot of teams, but the Bucks get him at 10.
With the 11th Pick, the Warriors take Bismack Biyombo
11 of 14The Warriors have one of the best backcourt duos in the league in Steph Curry and Monta Ellis. Well, at least until one of them is traded. Dorell Wright was also a revelation at SF, where he showed he could keep scoring pace with the guard combo at times.
They have Andris Beidrins under contract for another two seasons and David Lee for five, but the team didn’t play great defense and so I see them looking to upgrade here. Biyombo has been higher on a number of boards and while you don’t just yet know what you’re going to get, he certainly has upside.
Compared to everyone from Serge Ibaka to Ben Wallace to Saer Sene, Biyombo is an athletic freak with an incredible wingspan. While he’s under 6’10” his arms are about 7’2”, so he certainly could fill the role as a tough post defender and shot blocker.
I don’t see the team trying to hold on to Biedrins much longer with his salary ($9 million per), so they may try to find his replacement here. Just what they’re getting, however, remains to be seen.
With the 12th Pick, the Jazz take Jimmer Fredette
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I had this pick locked in even before the lottery so I’m not gonna change it now.
The team will end up getting talent at PG and SG positions, which is what it needed with the front court largely set. We all know Jimmer’s strengths, which include amazing range on his jumper, great free throw shooting and a nice crossover dribble to create space, but his weaknesses are a bit overstated.
NBA workouts should give some clarity but BYU assistants claim Fredette sports a 36” vertical, and his ball handling ability makes him difficult to guard even if he isn’t the fastest guy on the court. The problem he will have is on the defensive end, where he will have trouble guarding faster PGs and bigger SGs.
After picking Gordon Hayward last year the Jazz are putting together a team of NCAA tournament favorites, and they will certainly benefit from increased ticket sales and sponsorships next season.
With the 13th Pick, the Suns take Alec Burks
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With Steve Nash coming into the twilight of his contract (and perhaps career) the team would will probably look to Aaron Brooks as their long term option at point. There aren’t any people left on the board that represent sure-fire picks at that spot anyway.
They also have two nice young big men in Robin Lopez and Marcin Gortat, so they’ll stick with those guys at center. Hakim Warrick and Channing Frye, while not looking like great options toward the end of the season, were signed to deals and will be under contract for at least two and three seasons respectively.
Jared Dudley was signed to a long term deal as a SF with range, and Michael Pietrus has an option for next season as well. Pietrus and Dudley will be leaned on for defense and outside shooting, with neither a perfect match at shooting guard.
Enter Alec Burks, who may have one of the best shots in the draft. He’s athletic and can get to the rim, although his willingness to do so has been questioned. If he can improve on his finishing and continue to shoot well from behind the arc, he will be a powerful force in getting Stevie Nash another double digit assist season in 2011-12.
With the 14th Pick, the Rockets take Tristan Thompson
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The team already has Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic at point guard (assumedly the team will resign Dragic). Kevin Martin, Courtney Lee, Chase Buddinger, and Terrence Williams hold down the swing spots. Luis Scola/Brad Miller/Hasheem Thabeet will man the center spot.
By process of elimination the team may look at forwards to compliment Patrick Patterson and Jordan Hill, who are still auditioning as impact players in the league.
Thompson is in the top ten in a number of mock drafts, and with good reason. He was highly recruited before committing to Texas and had a solid if not overwhelming freshman season.
But when Thompson arrived in Texas he was paired with Jordan Hamilton, a player with similar size and a year of tenure. In many ways it meant Thompson couldn’t just step into the leadership role he was used to, but if you look at his performance he matched Hamilton step for step.
As a solid defender and post scorer he can fill some needs at the forward position. He’s the best value available here, and can round into a nice NBA player. While the Rockets had a decent season and almost made the playoffs, adding another young talented piece will improve their chances of hitting the jackpot on one of them.
