Fantasy Baseball: 5 Reasons Jose Bautista Will Out-Produce Alex Rodriguez
Last year, Toronto Blue Jays right fielder and third baseman Jose Bautista finally put together the season that many teams throughout his career thought he could do (OK, maybe he produced a little more than they were expecting).
Alex Rodriguez, meanwhile, had his typically good season, but was out-performed in home runs and RBI by Bautista.
Fast forward to the beginning of this season, and A-Rod was ranked as the third best third baseman on most lists while Bautista—even after a better year—was ranked sixth.
Fast forward just a little bit further to present day, and Bautista is manhandling Alex, and is ranked about 100 spots higher according to Yahoo!
Yet, the impression I get is that people still value A-Rod a lot more, and my question is simple. Why?
Here are some reasons and a little bit of evidence as to why I would trade A-Rod for Bautista straight-up in a heartbeat.
Walk Rate
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Jose Bautista currently has a walk rate of an astounding 24.6 percent. After last year's 54 home run effort, it is clear that pitchers are afraid of him, and he's letting them be afraid. He's not going after pitches out of the zone, as evidenced by his career low strikeout rate, and he is waiting for the pitch he wants.
It's pretty simple, really.
A patient Jose equals a dangerous Jose.
Lack of Power?
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Bautista draws many more walks than A-Rod and that will equal less AB, sure, but he is making much more use of his chances than Alex is.
When Bautista makes contact, he accrues a gb/fb rate of a minuscule 0.45. Meanwhile, when A-Rod makes contact, his rate is much closer to league average at 0.75.
Similarly, when the players get the ball off the ground, Bautista is hitting it much harder. His line drive rate is 21 percent while Alex is at a career low of 11 percent. This has resulted in 23 percent of Bautista's fly balls leaving the park and only 11.4 percent—another career low—leaving the yard for Rodriguez.
What exactly does all this mean?
Jose Bautista is hitting the ball with lots of force. Alex Rodriguez is not.
Age
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Neither of these guys are young, but it's safe to say that A-Rod, 35, is more likely to have a decrease in stats than Bautista, 30.
Not much else to say here, really. If I'm looking at two players who might put up similar statistics, I usually want the one closer to his prime.
Also, depending on price, I wouldn't be opposed to keeping Bautista in a keeper league, but I would be pretty nervous keeping Rodriguez.
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Potential Trade
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The Blue Jays currently sit at 17-20 and only five games out of first place in the AL East. However, there has been speculation that Bautista may be traded to a contender if the Blue Jays falter. This could mean that Bautista will be inserted into the middle of an even more dangerous lineup.
Alex Rodriguez currently has the better lineup protection, but it isn't out of the question for Bautista to gain similar value come the trade deadline.
With that being said, Bautista has out-hit A-Rod so far with the current lineups, so who's to say he needs better protection?
Comparable Seasons
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OK, let's take age out of it, look at each player's rate stats through the first month and change, and find their most comparable season.
First, Bautista. His walk and strikeout rates are the best in his career, but they are looking very similar to his 2010 numbers, his XBH percentage is closest to 2010 and pretty much all of his numbers are mirroring last year, meaning that a drop-off in production most likely is not coming.
Bautista's 2010: .260, 54 HR, 124 RBI
Now, A-Rod. Try to stay with me here. His strikeout and walk rates are actually most similar to his 2002 season with Texas, as is his babip, so we'll use his average from that year. His power rates were unusually high that year, however, so we'll use a different year to find the power numbers. His fly ball and home run rates are closest to either 1997 or 2010, so we'll use 2010.
Rodriguez's 2002 average and 2010 power numbers: .300, 30 HR, 125 RBI
So, that was all a much too confusing way of saying that if history is a good indicator for future success, this is a good guess at to what each player's numbers will look like this year.
Predictions
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I see Bautista's home runs falling a bit this year, based purely on that fact that he will be getting less at-bats. However, because of the increased patience, I see an increase in batting average.
Projected 2011 Final Numbers: .280 BA, 45 HR, 120 RBI
Rodriguez is just hitting the ball too softly right now, as evidenced by his extremely low line-drive and fly ball rates. It seems that 15 MVP-quality years are finally taking a toll on him. Couple that with the fact that A-Rod hasn't hit 140 games played in each of the past three seasons, and his numbers could take another hit.
Projected 2011 Final Numbers: .285 BA, 28 HR, 115 RBI
If you could use A-Rod's name value to steal Bautista from an unexpecting owner, I highly suggest doing it.
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