MLB Trade Speculation: The 10 Best Values Who Will Become Available
The 2011 MLB season is not even two months old, and fans and experts are already discussing which players might be on the move. Trade rumors are swirling around Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, and the same can even be said about Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder.
Yet, those two players are in a league of their own. Any team that trades for them will have to give up top prospects and a key player of their starting lineup, and there's no telling what kind of backlash that will cause (if any at all).
Rather, today I would like to talk about a certain type of trade target: the value. This type of player who if traded will not cost a team top prospects or can be controlled for a low salary post-deal.
One player who fits this mold, at least based on his performance thus far this season, is Minnesota Twins pitcher Francisco Liriano (pictured at left).
That being said, here are 10 values, Liriano included, who could become available at the deadline.
No. 10: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
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Don't get me wrong. David Ortiz is not having a bad season by any means. He is batting .280 with four home runs and 16 RBI.
But he is also making $12.5 million this season. With the Red Sox currently 17-18 and having to compete with both the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, it's feasible to believe that Ortiz could be traded for immediate help at the deadline.
The odds of this trade happening are slim to none, but Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is a businessman and with no guarantee that Ortiz will be back next season, chances are he could become available for a low price.
No. 9: J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox
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For his entire career, J.D. Drew has been criticized for being an underachiever. His tenure with the Red Sox has been no exception. This season, he has frustrated fans with his .228 batting average, two home runs and eight RBI. Not to mention, he's due to make $14 million this season.
That being said, unless he undergoes a complete transformation in the next two months, Drew and his expiring contract will definitely be on the block. He's a left-handed bat who at times exhibits average power as well as tremendous ability to hit for average, but he's 35 now and on the decline.
He could easily come cheap for a team in need of a lefty bat in the outfield or off the bench.
No. 8: Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
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I know, I know. Francisco Liriano just threw a no-hitter, so why on Earth would he be someone the Twins traded at a low price? Well, to be perfectly honest, Liriano has been pretty disappointing this year.
I know some people out there are going to say his struggles can be chalked up to lack of run support, but his ERA says otherwise. This season, Liriano has posted a 2-4 record with a 6.61 ERA and horrendous 1.56 WHIP. On top of that, he's earning $4.3 million this season.
With the Twins sitting in dead last in the AL Central and with an MLB-worst 64 more runs allowed than scored, a fire sale could be in order. If that does indeed happen, Liriano could be the first to go if his numbers don't improve.
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No. 7: Derrek Lee, Baltimore Orioles
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Just two seasons ago, Derrek Lee had a great season. He hit .306 with 35 homers and 111 RBI. Then, in 2010, his stats just dropped.
In a season split between the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves, Lee batted just .260 with 19 homers and 80 RBI. In the offseason, he signed a one-year deal worth $7.25 million with the Baltimore Orioles.
He is currently batting .233 with four home runs and nine RBI. Given how the Orioles have cooled off after starting strong and currently are tied for last place in the AL East, the 35-year-old Lee becomes expendable.
Teams looking for a power bat off the bench could probably get Lee for low-level prospects or even just cash. Either way, if Baltimore doesn't improve, look for him to be on his way out.
No. 6: Carlos Lee, Houston Astros
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From 2007-2009, Carlos Lee batted over .300 each season and had 100-plus RBI. In 2010, he had a major off-year and only hit .246 with 24 homers and 89 RBI. The struggles have followed him into 2011. He currently has a .228 batting average with three home runs and a respectable 20 RBI.
Still, he is making $19 million this season and with the young, inexperienced Astros sitting in last place in the NL Central, Lee could be the first one traded barring a major turnaround. Stats aside, he'll be 35 in June.
Given how the Astros seem to be headed in a more youthful direction, that increases Lee's likelihood of being traded for next to nothing.
No. 5: Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox
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After being traded to the White Sox from the Arizona Diamondbacks last season, Jackson posted a 4-2 record with a 3.24 ERA in 11 starts. Experts thought that his success would carry over into the 2011 season.
Instead, the White Sox are struggling badly and Jackson has a 3-4 record with a 4.29 ERA and well-below average 1.45 WHIP.
Jackson is still young at 27 so to say his career is over would be harsh, but this is also his contract year, and he is making $8.7 million. Once again, barring a major turnaround, this would make him available at a low price to potential trade suitors.
The fact is that with proper run support, Jackson could be a great pitcher. His control is always going to be a question mark, but there's no question that when he's on, he is ON.
No. 4: Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
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Again, we come to a player who is not having a bad season by any means. Bell has eight saves and a 1.29 ERA to go with a 1.07 WHIP. However, the Padres are in last place in the always-tight NL West and if the team falls far enough behind, it's very possible that Bell and his expiring contract could become available.
He's making $7.5 million this year, pretty high for a closer. Given that his contract is up at season's end, teams in need of a closer would be smart to give up low-level prospects for him.
No. 3: Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
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You're not going to believe this, but the Cubs are behind the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central Race. This team is once again struggling in every way, shape and form. Third baseman Aramis Ramirez and his $14.6 million contract have been doing alright, batting .273 but only with one home run and 12 RBI.
Call me crazy, but I think Ramirez will leave Chicago for greener pastures if given the opportunity to test free agency. The Cubs already have a lot of money tied up in underachieving outfielders Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukodome, and when push comes to shove, Ramirez's contract is the easiest to move.
He's 32 and coming off an off year, so he would definitely come cheap, and the team that trades for him would probably not have to give up more than a couple of low to mid-level prospects. Heck, Ramirez could probably be acquired for a "player to be named later."
No. 2: Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
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Chris Carpenter is 36 years old and making $14.25 million this season. His St. Louis Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central and considering how he is the ace of the staff, he hasn't done much to contribute to it. Thus far, Carpenter has an 0-2 record with a 4.19 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
I have said before in previous pieces that Carpenter is major trade bait, especially since Adam Wainwright is out for the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Much like the Yankees did in acquiring Lance Berkman from the Houston Astros last season, teams in need of a veteran arm could easily acquire Carpenter for a package of low-level prospects and cash.
Unless he turns it around, look for him to be on the move come July.
No. 1: Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies
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While he is having a decent season with a 3-1 record, 3.33 ERA and incredible 1.04 WHIP, trust me when I say that Roy Oswalt will be on the trading block come July and he will come cheap. Let's take a look at why the odds are stacked against him in this case.
First off, he's turning 34 in August and is currently on the 15-day DL with a bad back. I know he's a great pitcher, but these are injuries one must be concerned about once a pitcher reaches this age.
Second, he makes $16 million this year. With Chase Utley's status uncertain and the Phillies as a whole trying to get younger, Oswalt would be ideal trade bait for an everyday bat. Not necessarily a top name or a top prospect, but a bat that can get the job done when called upon, and consistently.
Lastly, out of all the Phillies' starting pitchers, Oswalt is simply the easiest to move. He has the kind of expiring contract that teams can take advantage of in the best way possible. His current contract has a team option for next year so even if he pitches well for your team after he's traded for, team management can hold onto him for a low price.
I know I sound crazy, but I'm picking Oswalt to be on the move come July.
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