Dwight Howard Trade Scenarios: Possible Deals If Orlando Magic Lose to Hawks
Many pundits predict that if the Orlando Magic bow out of the 2011 NBA playoffs prematurely Dwight Howard might force a trade to get out of Orlando.
Given Orlando's inability to win with him, the desire for Dwight to leave could be mutual.
Howard has two years at roughly $17 million annually left on his current contract and a slew of suitors that will be on him like flies if the Magic make him available.
Here are some Dwight Howard trades that are both fun to create on ESPN.com's NBA Trade Machine and to think about in real life.
Howard to Bulls for Joakim Noah and Luol Deng
1 of 9
There are two big questions that come up for Chicago with this trade.
First, is the cost too high to acquire Dwight Howard? Joakim Noah is a rising star with a long and cheap contract that is well under market value. He already offers 75 percent of Howard's rebound and block production. Luol Deng is young, but his bloated contract might be the tipping point of this trade; the Bulls would be ecstatic to dump that at the right time even though Deng is one of their core contributors.
The other question is whether Orlando would want to trade Howard to a team it's chasing in the East. Howard is a three-time Defensive Player of the Year as well as an offensive force. His acquisition brings no small impact to his new team. In fact, he's the focal point.
According to the Trade Machine, this trade subtracts nine wins from Orlando and adds nine to Chicago. That raises the question of whether this trade is really worth it for Orlando. Maybe the Magic are not getting enough for Howard. Maybe John Hollinger's win projection is garbage. Maybe Dwight Howard is better than we all think.
One thing that is known is that Howard moving to any team within the East will send shock waves throughout the conference and drastically alter the power structures in the East.
Howard and Chris Duhon to 76ers for Elton Brand, Evan Turner and Jrue Holiday
2 of 9
Again, John Hollinger's projected win differential shows the Magic getting hijacked in this trade.
This is just one of many reasons why I'm shocked that John Hollinger has a job.
The exchange adds great depth to Orlando at the guard positions, with rising star Jrue Holiday and No. 2 overall pick Evan Turner. Brand's revitalization this year reminded everyone of the player he was before his Achilles injury.
After his 2010-11 season, that $16 million/year contract doesn't look so egregious. General manager Otis Smith finally realizes that slapping together a roster of overpaid former stars/athletes does not get you anywhere in the NBA, and begins to add good basketball players to his roster.
Philadelphia guts two of its three best players to bring in Howard at center. The Sixers would choose to build around Howard, Andre Iguodala, Spencer Hawes, a re-signed Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams, which is a solid group. Philly's defense, already strong with Iguodala on the perimeter, would finally get a rim-protector and elite rebounder in Howard.
The Sixers made great strides as a team as Holiday and Brand jelled this year—would taking the bulldozer to the team by trading for Dwight Howard demolish the building, or make way for a beautiful renovation?
Howard/Q. Richardson to Rockets for Luis Scola/Kevin Martin/Patrick Patterson
3 of 9
The expiration of Jason Richardson's contract paves the way for Kevin Martin to come in with two years and $20 million left to play shooting guard. One of Orlando's main problems has been that it doesn't have an unquestioned, go-to scorer, which Martin is. Luis Scola gives the Magic a ton of depth at power forward and allows newcomer Patrick Patterson and Ryan Anderson to get playing time at center.
The Magic has its core—Scola, Martin, Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu and Anderson—locked in for at least two years with a better cap situation than with Dwight Howard.
For Houston, cap flexibility and Yao's replacement come in one fell swoop. No longer is general manager Darryl Morey locked into Scola and Martin for a couple years each, and Q-Rich's contract is manageable even though it has three years remaining.
The Rockets have had alpha dog questions. Who is the go-to guy, Martin, Scola, Yao or Kyle Lowry? Dwight Howard provides a definitive answer. He's a high scorer, he gets paid the highest salary and possesses the largest personality. Having an unquestioned leader, no matter how suspect an offensive game he has, could mean a lot for a Houston team that has frequently passed the buck to the next guy down the line.
Howard/Jameer Nelson/2013 Pick to Hawks for Joe Johnson/Al Horford/Jeff Teague
4 of 9
This blockbuster for division rivals significantly shakes up the composition of both squads. And why not? Watching their current head-to-head series is an exercise in futility. You'll never see so many talented players adding up to so little in terms of team success. These are the fourth- and fifth-best teams in the East, but they are light years behind the top three, so there's nothing to lose by blowing up their respective rosters.
For Atlanta, freedom from the continual horror of Joe Johnson's max contract of 2010 is almost enough to make them execute this trade. What the Hawks gain, however, is significant as well, and at positions of weakness. Jameer Nelson may not be worth that $7.8 million, but he is a significant upgrade over Kirk Hinrich and Jeff Teague. The ability to manage the team and provide a staying influence is something that the Hawks need, and the lack of such might be why they've fallen flat on their faces every year.
Dwight Howard obviously represents a huge upgrade at center, even over Al Horford. Put him with the athletic Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Nelson and the Hawks present a more daunting starting five than ever. Even better, they don't lose any depth and acquire another first-round pick for 2013 from Orlando.
The Magic add three current or future core players. Horford and Johnson have all kinds of continuity with each other and are under contract for five more years each. Whatever they get out of Jeff Teague will be a plus, since Chris Duhon and Gilbert Arenas are the remaining Orlando ball-handlers.
Joe Johnson's role is much tighter with the Magic because of all the other pieces in place. He's not a small forward because Hedo Turkoglu sits in that spot, or a point guard because of the three mentioned previously. He might occupy the No. 1 scorer role and little more for Orlando, which could help him be more efficient and focused; sometimes it seems like Atlanta asks too much of him and parts of his game suffer.
A starting five of Horford, Ryan Anderson/Brandon Bass, Turkoglu, Johnson and Duhon/Arenas is no better than what they have, but improves depth at key positions.
Howard/Turkoglu to Pacers for Danny Granger/Roy Hibbert/James Posey/Paul George
5 of 9
The Indiana Pacers, with a jelling young core, shakes things up to bring in the anchor—a franchise center. The frustration over Danny Granger's injuries and truncated rise cause the Pacers to cut ties with him and start over with Howard as their superstar.
At small forward Hedo Turkoglu arrives to replace Granger, which eases the burden of playmaking on slow-developing point guard Darren Collison. If nothing else, Indiana would be strong up front with Howard, Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts.
The Magic are tens of millions over the cap and won't climb out of that hole making even trades. This trade gives them a steady mix of rotation players and expiring contracts to create cap space. Granger and Hibbert move into the starting five with Jameer Nelson, Ryan Anderson and...the resurrected Gilbert Arenas! Just kidding, Paul George would probably fill the shooting guard position with Arenas hotly contesting.
Orlando, as always, will have a ton of tradeable assets and attractive bad contracts, so the fact that their roster is incomplete doesn't spell doom.
Howard/Turkoglu to Clippers for Chris Kaman/DeAndre Jordan/Eric Bledsoe/R. Foye
6 of 9
Dwight Howard gets his alleged wish to play in Los Angeles, just not for the team he's probably targeting. In order to get Howard, the Clippers surrender two of their surprise building blocks from 2010-11—DeAndre Jordan (sign and trade) and Eric Bledsoe. Mo Williams and Dwight Howard are the unquestioned starters at point guard and center, respectively, and the departure of Chris Kaman's $11 million signifies progress.
Orlando essentially takes a wrecking ball to the franchise to reboot the roster and the cap situation. They get Kaman's expiring contract to gain some serious cap relief while giving Jordan and Bledsoe the space they need to mature. Jameer Nelson becomes expendable late in his contract, which could provide more cap flexibility.
With Jason Richardson coming off the books this offseason and Kaman coming off next summer, the Magic get $26 million closer to the salary cap, plus get significantly younger with the trade.
Dwight Howard to Lakers for Andrew Bynum and Shannon Brown
7 of 9
The two centers represent a strong trade combination. Both are young, huge, able to guard the rim and still offensive works in progress. Their contracts are similar as well.
This represents a big win for the Magic, who take the risk with Bynum's injury history, but allow him the space and touches he needs to reach the elite group of big men. With just two years left on his deal, the Magic aren't married to him for any longer than they want to be. Letting Bynum go after his contract would free up even more cap space to make upgrading moves.
The Lakers add salary, but when you're already $34 million over the cap, $3 million extra doesn't matter to you. Dwight Howard can get them that money back in two games with the star power he has. The Lakers championship window is closing, but they would be the clear favorites to win the title for however long Howard, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher are together.
For once, I agree with John Hollinger, and only on half of his equation. The Lakers are projected for plus-10 wins, while Orlando is a minus-nine. The Lakers get noticeably better, but I don't think the Magic get any worse. Whatever defense and intimidation they lose by trading Howard, they return in Bynum's toughness and advancing offensive skills.
The Glaring Problem
8 of 9
If Dwight Howard wants to leave Orlando, the Magic have an intractable problem. They have two options: let him play out his contract and walk in free agency for nothing, or trade him soon and get a lot in return.
I mentioned the result of letting him go in free agency above i.e. the Magic have nothing to show for their superstar player—one of the top eight players in the NBA.
When a player as elite as Howard becomes available on the trade market, the suitor always wins over the trader. John Hollinger's win projections are worthless for many reasons, but they do represent an overarching truth about trading stars: no matter how hard you try, you can't get equal value. The team receiving Howard always significantly raises its win total, while the Magic drop theirs significantly in spite of some really good exchanges.
Time is running out for the Magic. They're clearly not a championship contender, but they're not drafting high enough to improve their team without subtracting something else first. They've got a lame duck superstar who wants out, but hasn't burned any bridges to show he's committed to leaving.
Whatever Otis Smith decides to do with Dwight Howard could make or break his career, and his franchise.
For More Analysis...
9 of 9
For more breakdowns of trade and free-agent scenarios, keep Bleacher Report bookmarked as the postseason marches on.
Also, check out these recent assorted slideshows:
