NBA Playoffs 2011: 10 Bold Playoff Predictions: What Surprises Await Us?
The NBA Playoffs has people on their heels, but just like March Madness, upsets and sleeper players are a huge part of why the NBA Playoffs are so great.
From Derrick Rose and Kevin Durant having great years to Chris Bosh taking a step down to Amar'e Stoudemire's amazing nine-game stretch in 2010, this season has been full of surprises and action. Let's see what surprises (and action) will greet us in the playoffs. Here are 10 bold predictions for the NBA Playoffs.
No. 1: The Miami Heat will lose in Round 2
The Miami Heat have had a great year, going 58-24 and locking up the second seed with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh at the helm. The team has gone through great stretches, and they won 49 of their last 65 games. So why is it that they will lose so early?
The answer is simple. Teams that have a couple stars (like Boston) can handle winning games alone in the regular season, but in the playoffs, they need bench support. The team also needs to play together well and get more assists.
Every member of the Big Three had decreasing assist numbers. The Heat need players like Eddie House, Udonis Haslem, Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers to step up, and that is a huge load to carry, considering the Heat will have to face Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e and the Knicks or the Big Four of Boston.
In Game 1 of the first round, they almost let Philadelphia beat them at their home court.
No. 2: Russell Westbrook will play amazingly well
Russell Westbrook has shown great leadership you hardly ever see from someone with as little experience as him. He has some grea players to work with, like Kevin Durant, and he can easily make a player better by driving to the hoop and feeding someone the ball.
Westbrook's contribution has been a big reason why Oklahoma City went 55-27 and has home-court advantage in the first round. Westbrook averages over 21 points per game, and he is definitely another rising star in the league.
Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams and Rajon Rondo have shown a lot of promise and leadership for years to come, and the journey starts here.
Westbrook and the Thunder will have to take down Denver in the first round, a team they beat 3-1 in the regular season, and most likely San Antonio in the second round. It will be hard, but if Westbrook steps up and accepts a much bigger role, OKC can win a championship this year.
Bold Prediction #No. 3: Both 3-seeds will lose in Round 1
The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks each have 56-plus wins. They have at least one star and have experience, knowledge and the ability to beat any team. Unfortunately for them, the luck of the draw didn't play out in their favor, as both 6-seeds can play. Although the C's and Mavs are great, certain disadvantages will send them home early.
Boston's original "Big Three" are now 33, 34 and 35, and although each one of them can shoot well and put up big numbers, they are becoming more inconsistent.
The New York Knicks, on the other hand, have experienced players in Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups and talented young players in Toney Douglas and Landry Fields.
Portland has also shown that they can compete with anyone and that Wesley Matthews and LaMarcus Aldridge can lead a team far. They will need a contribution from Brandon Roy, because his 12 PPG has hurt the Blazers.
Still, both of those teams can and will send Boston and Dallas home early.
No. 4: The Chicago Bulls will coast through the East
Although they might not have displayed it in Game 1, the Chicago Bulls can play, and they can beat anyone. Plus, they showed great comeback ability in Game 1, and they swung the momentum of the series.
The Bulls clinched home-court by beating New Jersey on the last game of the season, and they are now 37-5 at the United Center. It is very hard to knock Chicago off at the United Center, and even if Chicago is away from home, it is hard to beat them.
Derrick Rose can take the ball to the rack and score 40 any day, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah can have a 25-15 days and Luol Deng can always get 25.
The only thing Chicago needs to do better is use their advantages. Chicago let Indiana take a lot of open shots (that went in) in Game 1, and if they don't use their height advantage, Indiana could beat them.
The Bulls just need to play smart basketball, and they will be good. Chicago beat Indiana in 2-of-3 regular season games, they swept Miami and they won the last two against Boston (in addition to a dominant late-season win over New York).
If the Bulls use Boozer, Noah and Deng to their advantage, the playoffs will come easy to Chicago, and a seventh title will be delivered to the Windy City.
No. 5: LA will struggle in the playoffs
Now, I never said the Lakers would lose early, but even though I have them facing a seventh and sixth seed in the first round, it will be tough.
Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and the Lakers have been to the past three NBA Finals (winning the last two), and they have been able to win many close games. But now, they are getting older, and young teams like Portland and Oklahoma City are in the playoffs with them.
Los Angeles will not have much trouble with Chris Paul and New Orleans considering Chris Paul isn't the same player he was in 2008, and David West hasn't lived up to his full potential. The Hornets had a nice year, but LA will knock them out easily.
However, Portland brings a challenge as LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews have stepped up in a year where Brandon Roy has struggled. But if Roy plays like he did when he was the star of the team, Portland will beat LA.
Unfortunately for Portland, the injury bug has struck Roy a couple times, and if it does during the playoffs, the Blazers will be in trouble. If not, LA is in trouble. Even if the Lake Show makes it to the conference finals, an experienced team like San Antonio or a young but talented team like Oklahoma City will most likely await them.
Los Angeles can win another, but the road to the show is tougher than it seems.
No. 6: Atlanta will beat Orlando in six games or less
The Hawks didn't play well in the last week of the season, but they still locked up the fifth seed and a date with the Orlando Magic. The Magic are good and experienced, but can they beat a team they only defeated once in the regular season?
Plus, Atlanta started making the playoffs regularly at about the same time Orlando did, so you can't really give Orlando the edge there, and if you look closely, Atlanta has guys that can step up.
Dwight Howard is the best player in the series, averaging 22.9 PPG and 14.1 RPG, but Gilbert Arenas hasn't played as well as expected, Jameer Nelson has struggled and as a result, the Magic dropped from two-straight years as a second seed to a fourth seed.
Joe Johnson, Al Horford and Josh Smith have all played well for Atlanta, and they can easily overpower Howard. Arenas is past his prime, and he can be taken by either Kirk Hinrich or Jamal Crawford.
Crawford is inconsistent and Hinrich is past his prime, but they aren't out yet. In fact, Arenas vs. Hinrich is a pretty even matchup, and throw in Jamal Crawford and you have yourself some Atlanta domination.
If Brandon Bass doesn't rise to the occasion, forget it. The Hawks journey may end if the Bulls make it to Round 2, but Round 1 will be a nice way to get revenge for what Orlando did to Atlanta last year.
No. 7: San Antonio will not make it past Round 2
Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are all good, but are they getting a little old? Ginobli is injured, Parker took a step down from 2009-10 and Duncan is definitely not the same. Although they came together well and picked up a top seed for the Spurs, challenges await them, and they aren't going to be easy.
Memphis is 46-36 and not to be overlooked, for Zach Randolph averages more PPG than any Spurs player and can overpower Duncan, and OKC is definitely not a team you want to overlook. If you do, well, good luck.
The West is pretty jampacked with talent, but just like Dallas, the Spurs got bad luck. Memphis was very close to getting a 7- or 6-seed, but they decided to rest their players and stick with San Antonio.
The Spurs will probably get them back for that, but the winner of OKC-Denver is not anyone you want to play. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant can run all over San Antonio (if they were playing well and San Antonio wasn't completely on their game), and Denver has Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and about eight guys who can play ball and can play ball well.
The Spurs have struggled toward the end of the year, and they can't carry that into the playoffs or show their age. If they do, goodbye San Antonio.
No. 8: The Denver Nuggets will not play as well in the playoffs
Once Denver gave up Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, everyone thought they were toast. But this cast of players with no real star (comparison, 2010 San Francisco Giants) has proved them wrong and secured the fifth seed in the West.
Unfortunately for the Nuggets, a tough test awaits. Oklahoma City has beat the Nuggets three out of four times, and the Thunder took out the Nuggets in Christmas Day when Kevin Durnt scored 44 points.
Denver has Raymond Felton, but Russell Westbrook will take the point guard matchup. Felton is the team's real star, but Westbrook and Durant can dominate Felton.
Durant has more skill and ability than any Nugget by far, and Russell Westbrook takes second prize. This plus a great OKC crowd will help discourage the Nuggets, leading to better defense, which the Thunder might need. Denver-OKC looks good on paper, but paper doesn't always tell the truth, does it?
No. 9: Brandon Roy will rise to the occasion
I have mentioned this a lot before, but Brandon Roy will definitely need to step up for the Portland Trail Blazers to succeed.
They can beat Dallas and LA without contribution from Roy if Aldridge scores 30 a game and Matthews scores 25, but Brandon Roy steeping up is much easier. Roy can shoot, but has been struck by injuries, and if the injury bug takes away his athleticism and playing time, Portland won't do well.
Aldridge has played a huge role in Portland clinching the sixth seed and getting Dallas instead of LA or San Antonio, but to make those efforts count, Roy will need to step up, make his shots and play like the Brandon Roy that turned the Blazers around from finishing 10th-15th in the conference to a regular playoff team.
Roy can shoot well and hand games to Portland when he plays well, and I think his shooting ability and scoring touch will be on display. Add in some assists and you have yourself a new Brandon Roy. If Roy succeeds, Portland succeeds.
No. 10: Philadelphia will challenge Miami
They may fall on the short end in a few close games, but Miami could definitely lose to Philadelphia in the first round. Andre Iguodola, Elton Brand, Lou Williams, Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young have all proved capable of carrying a load, and if they carry that in the playoffs, the Big Three's first year together could end terribly.
Although Philadelphia has no real leadership and Elton Brand has the only real source of playoff experience, they can still bring a challenge to Miami.
I think Philadelphia's depth will challenge Miami's stardom and even though the close games will most likely go to Miami, Philadelphia won't go down easily. The depth and bench of Philadelphia will provide a challenge for Miami, and even though the Heat will take the series, it won't be as easy as it seems.
The Sixers showed they won't go away easily in Game 1, and they won't go away easily in the rest of the series
