2011 NFL Mock Draft: Best Case Scenario for Every First Round Pick
You know what's annoying? Trying to mock draft for your team when you don't know if the team before yours is going to take your dream pick.
So why worry about it?
In this unusual mock draft, rather than concern myself with which players are off the board, I will instead project the best possible pick for each team in the first round.
A few guidelines:
1. This is NOT a true mock draft. I'm effectively projecting the top of each team's big board. That means that there WILL be repeating picks. Even though I may list one player on two or three different teams (and some top talents will be neglected entirely), I still know how the actual draft works. This is more about projecting 32 dream picks than an actually feasible "everybody wins" first round.
2. I'm not crazy, so this will be conducted with an ounce of reason. While the Pittsburgh Steelers' true dream scenario is probably for Patrick Peterson to slide to them at the 31st overall pick, everybody knows that isn't going to happen. Sure, there will be some unlikely scenarios, but this isn't about worrying who's going to be there. I'll leave that for the typical mock drafts.
3. Some teams have clearer targets/needs than others, which means that even though I'm picking the "best possible" player for your team, you may disagree. In that case, feel free to voice your grievance below.
Everybody got that? OK, let's go then.
With the first pick in the 2011 NFL draft, the Carolina Panthers select...
1. Carolina Selects Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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There's really no point to worrying about who drafts ahead of you when you draft first, right?
Sorry, Panthers fans, this mock isn't that much fun for you. Could be worse, though. Raiders fans aren't included at all.
And yes, I know some of you are probably ready to waterboard yourselves before seeing your team draft Cam Newton with the first overall pick.
This is what first-overall picks do, though. At the time, the Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford pick in 2009 was incredibly divisive. There are probably still some people who would have rather seen the Rams pick Ndamukong Suh over Sam Bradford last year.
That said, it looks very much like Newton to Carolina is happening. Jimmy Clausen isn't looking like the answer (though his shot at it was incredibly short for a second-round pick), and new regimes mean new franchise quarterbacks.
There is still time for a switch, but right now it seems like the only team in the draft guaranteed to get their man thinks that man is Newton.
2. Denver Selects Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
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Denver drafted a quarterback in the first round last year, so they're obligated to give him the time he needs to bust so they can move on.
In other words, Denver won't be looking for a first-round quarterback for about another year or two, so they will also get the guy they want.
That guy is Marcell Dareus, the runaway favorite for top defensive lineman in the draft.
Denver's anemic pass rush will improve with a healthy Elvis Dumervil, but they still need a lot of help up front. Dareus can step in immediately and upgrade the line as an interior pass rusher.
John Fox likes to build his teams around dominant pass rushers (see Julius Peppers and Carolina), and Dareus fits the bill.
3. Buffalo Selects Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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If Carolina passes on Cam Newton (and it's looking increasingly doubtful that they will), Denver will undoubtedly do the same and Buffalo will get their new franchise quarterback.
Buffalo doesn't exactly build from the quarterback position, and they have needs at effectively every position, so it's doubtful they will take a quarterback unless they have their top target available.
Buffalo is also one of the worst teams in sports at masking their draft intentions. They're trying to downplay their interest in the Auburn quarterback, which in draft-speak means they're really hoping to get him.
Team president Ralph Wilson said in a January interview with the Buffalo News, "If there is not a quarterback at No. 3 we like, we're not going to reach and take him. We're going to take the player we like best."
Well, the Bills have pulled Newton in for a visit, which means they're at least marginally interested. They're denying interest after the visit, which means they're very interested. And working backward from Wilson's quote, he effectively said that they would take a quarterback if they like him.
In other words, Buffalo already has Newton's name written on a draft card. They're just waiting to see if they get to use it.
(Note: This slide does not necessarily reflect the author's views on Newton's viability as a legitimate franchise quarterback. Carolina and Buffalo like him, regardless of whether the author believes he's the second coming of Vince Young.)
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4. Cincinnati Selects A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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This is Cincinnati's ideal pick, and nobody is likely to get in the way of it.
The Bengals have a lot of question marks, which makes their pick an interesting one. What is that team going to look like next year?
Nobody knows, but everybody knows what the receiving corps looked like without Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, neither of whom is expected back in 2011.
Because Marvin Lewis has miraculously avoided the axe for yet another season, he's not likely to spend the fourth-overall pick on a quarterback. He needs a veteran that will step in and perform well enough to save his job next season.
The easiest way he can make that happen is to give his future quarterback the best weapon he can draft.
5. Arizona Selects Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
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The beneficiary of a monstrous Senior Bowl, Miller seems poised to become a top pick for any team that needs a pass rush from the linebacker position.
Arizona is that team.
Like Cincinnati, Arizona isn't likely to take a flier on a rookie quarterback when the coaching staff could be on the hot seat.
They do need to add a dynamic presence on defense, and Miller fits the bill.
Miller seems to be another player that will actually fall to the team that wants them, but Buffalo is reportedly interested as well.
6. Cleveland Selects A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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Like the Bengals, the Cleveland Browns have a serious lack of playmakers.
Unlike Cincinnati, the Browns have a decent quarterback on the roster who isn't holding himself ransom.
Cleveland appears to have hit on a franchise quarterback with Colt McCoy, so their top priority should be to surround him with playmakers.
A.J. Green is the undisputed top wide receiver on the board, so if the Browns want to give McCoy a big target to shoot for, Green is the ideal pick.
7. San Francisco Selects Blaine Gabbert, QB, MIssouri
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Even if Cam Newton is available at seventh (not likely), Blaine Gabbert is still the pick here.
Gabbert is a better fit for the offense rookie head coach John Harbaugh is likely to install (fact: Harbaugh attempted to recruit Gabbert to Stanford out of high school), and if there is one thing Harbaugh needs above all else, it's a quarterback.
The only decent quarterback the 49ers had before last season (Shaun Hill) was shipped off to Detroit for a seventh-round pick and a bag of kicking tees. That left Alex Smith and Troy Smith to battle it out for the position of "Most Humiliating Second-String Job in the NFL."
Harbaugh is a bright guy, and he knows it would be foolish to reach for a QB with the seventh-overall pick.
But if he were to get the guy he wants at that pick, a guy who some draft experts are still calling the top quarterback in the draft?
Then the 49ers are in business.
8. Tennessee Wishes It Could Get Cam Newton, Selects Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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Of the Auburn players in this year's draft, Nick Fairley is not the first one Bud Adams wants. Of this I am certain.
Why? Because a clone of Adams' favorite man in the world, Vince Young, is also entering the draft (if only he were from Texas, too). And Vince Young is on his way out of Tennessee. And I have absolutely no faith in the idea that Adams has learned anything from that debacle.
Luckily for Titans fans, there is no reasonable way Newton falls to eighth.
Between his "entertainer" comments, his awful throwing performance at the combine, the fact that scandal followed him everywhere in college and the fact that he was only a one-year starter at an FBS school, Newton has already done everything he could to drop his draft status, and he's still looking at going first overall.
So instead, the Titans get a player who might just pan out, in Fairley.
The Titans need an overhaul across the defensive line after years of it being a consistent team strength. Fairley's name has been tossed around as a possible mark to the Broncos with the second overall pick, but it looks increasingly likely that they'll go with Marcell Dareus.
Tennessee will be happy to bring in Fairley as a consolation prize.
9. Dallas Selects Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
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File this one under "stranger things have happened."
Would Jerry Jones commit atrocious felonies to get Patrick Peterson at ninth overall? No.
But he would hire someone else to?
Of course, it's doubtful that Peterson falls out of the top five, much less all the way to ninth. Some mocks have Peterson going as low as seventh to San Francisco, but I've seen none placing him any lower.
However, this is an unusual draft situation. With free agency a big question mark, we may see more teams than usual drafting for immediate need. If Peterson falls to seventh, then all it will take for him to slip to Dallas is the 49ers deciding they need a quarterback and the Titans deciding they need to build from the defensive line.
Is it likely? No.
Is it the best scenario the secondary-strapped Cowboys could hope for? Almost certainly.
10. Washington Selects Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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The Washington Redskins are one big need. And since they can't draft a new owner, they'll have to start somewhere else.
They might as well start with trying to bring in a replacement for Santana Moss, who is in the twilight of his career.
Julio Jones will almost definitely be available here, and A.J. Green will almost definitely be gone. In addition, it looks like the Redskins will be content to wait until the second round to find their new franchise quarterback.
Put all that together, and Jones looks like a pretty good choice here.
11. Houston Selects Their Favorite DE/OLB Pass Rusher
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I can't nail this one down to a single player, because the best DE/OLB pass rushing prospect in this year's draft is Von Miller, and he won't be available here.
The second-best DE/OLB is...up in the air. It could be J.J. Watt, it could be Cameron Jordan, it could be Aldon Smith. They all fit what Houston wants to do with Wade Phillips' new 3-4 scheme, so it's up to them to decide who they want best.
Sadly, Houston isn't really likely to benefit from any top 10 players falling to them (aside from Miller, who won't).
The good news is, the Texans have their choice of whomever they think fits best. Of Watt, Jordan and Smith, none really blows the others away and none are likely to have come off the board by 11, so it will be entirely up to the Texans to decide who the second-best DE/OLB is.
12. Minnesota Selects Tyron Smith, OT, USC
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What, you wanted Jake Locker?
Another pick here might be Blaine Gabbert, and I toyed with that idea for a while, but I think that the Vikings are content to take their new franchise quarterback in the second round, even if Gabbert is there.
In the meantime, the Vikings may shoot for the best lineman on the board as something to make their new quarterback's life a little easier.
Adrian Peterson would thank them for it, too.
13. Detroit Selects Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
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The Detroit Lions need a young stud at cornerback. Amukamara is a young stud at cornerback.
The Detroit Lions make a habit of taking the best player available regardless of need. Amukamara would be the pound-for-pound best player in the 13th spot.
Any questions?
14. St. Louis Selects Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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Sam Bradford did an admirable job taking over a 1-15 team and leading them to the brink of the playoffs.
In the final do-or-die game of the season, the Rams were beaten by the 6-9 Seattle Seahawks, largely because Bradford had nowhere to go with the ball. At no point was the Rams' lack of downfield weapons more apparent than in that game.
If Bradford and the Rams are going to continue to develop in 2011, Bradford is going to need a downfield threat to keep defenses honest.
Julio Jones fits this requirement and does it with value.
15. Miami Selects Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
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Miami needs a running back, and Mark Ingram is a reach (especially now that he's looking at potential injury issues).
Miami also needs to shore up its interior line, and Mike Pouncey is slightly less of a reach at No. 15. He will also be instrumental in helping the future standard-bearer of the Dolphins' rushing attack.
This is honestly a less-than-ideal pick for the Dolphins (no "dream scenario" should be a reach). But I don't really see Miami getting better value with a player they need more at the 15th spot.
Perhaps the true best-case scenario for the Dolphins would be a trade down.
16. Jacksonville Selects Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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This draft season has to be boring for Jaguars fans.
Ryan Kerrigan has been mocked to Jacksonville in about 90 percent of all first-round mocks this year, there's little doubt he'll be available and there's little chance the Jags pass on him. It's one of the closest things to a lock in this draft.
It's right up there with Al Davis drafting a new quarterback based on his 40-yard dash time.
So why deviate from the consensus? Kerrigan is the type of high-character guy Jags GM Gene Smith wants. He plays the position the Jags need. He comes from the scheme the Jags run. He's well within his projected draft range at 16th.
Seriously, what's not to like?
17. New England Selects Cameron Jordan, DE/DT, California
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New England has a pair of first-round picks and a pair of second-round picks this year.
Knowing Bill Belichick, by the time the Pats have actually drafted, they will have no picks in the first, five in the second, 11 in the third and a 2012 first in tow.
Or they could take the talented and versatile Cameron Jordan out of Cal and upgrade what was a painfully vanilla pass rush in 2010.
New England has made a habit of dealing away veterans from their front seven, slowly turning it from an area of strength to an area of need. Jordan makes perfect sense to bring some of that swagger back.
Instead, he'll probably take his pick of future Pro Bowlers in the second.
18. San Diego Selects J.J. Watt, DE
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It's convenient, this draft.
A lot of teams in the middle rounds are likely to be looking for upgrades to the defensive line (especially since that's the strength of this year's draft), and they all have slightly different fits.
Watt would probably fit right in with New England at No. 17, but Bill Belichick has a well-documented distaste for his agent, Tom Condon. Cameron Jordan is effectively a lateral move from Watt for New England, so Watt falls into San Diego's lap.
Statistically, San Diego doesn't need a defensive upgrade, as they were a top-five defense for most of the season. But where they have a solid all-around defense, they lacked true playmakers, which is why they lost so many games despite being a statistical juggernaut.
Watt could bring that spark to put the Chargers over the top. No pun intended.
19. New York Giants Select Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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The New York Giants need to improve their offensive front to give Eli Manning a chance to prove how average he is without any excuses.
Sorry, it's just that New York quarterbacks are always either overrated or underrated. Sometimes both at the same time, like Mark Sanchez. I give Manning (the younger) a hard time because he gets too much credit for the Giants' improbable Super Bowl run, especially given that he produced relatively little before or since.
But I digress. If Manning is ever going to perform up to that record-breaking contract of his, he's going to need some help. He has one of the most talented receiving corps in the NFL from top to bottom, but he got killed behind the line last year, and that forced a myriad of bad/rushed throws/decisions.
Tyron Smith is the best lineman in the draft this year, but the odds of him making it out of the top 10 are shrinking, and the odds of him making it to 19 are nil.
Castonzo would do nicely as a consolation prize, and he shares the Boston College connection with head coach Tom Coughlin.
20. Tampa Bay Selects Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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I don't think it's very likely that Kerrigan slips past the Jaguars.
But if he does, he's unlikely to be taken by the Patriots, Chargers or Giants, which would drop him right to the Buccaneers.
The Bucs, who need a whole bunch of help with their pass rush, are already considering trading up for Kerrigan, so seeing him slip past the Jaguars would undoubtedly set off a celebration in the Bucs' war room.
21. Kansas City Selects Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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I think the Chiefs would probably like to get their hands on Anthony Castonzo, but there are just too many teams with an eye on him in the top 20 for him to get by all of them.
The Chiefs' real ideal pick here might be a healthy Phil Taylor (Scott Pioli really wants a Vince Wilfork-type nose tackle for his 3-4 scheme), but recent MRIs have shown that he has bones growing together in his feet, which could be a serious problem for a player of his size.
Of course, as we get closer to the draft itself, an increasing amount of misinformation will be making the rounds, so it may well be that concern about Taylor's health is exaggerated or even untrue.
Still, for a team like the Chiefs with plenty of needs, it's hard to justify spending a first-round pick on a guy who might not work out for medical reasons. So the Chiefs go the safe route here and shore up Matt Cassel's protection with the top OT on the board.
The Chiefs are also rumored to be interested in Nate Solder in this spot.
22. Indianapolis Selects Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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Peyton Manning looked human last year behind a lackluster offensive line (is that a first for the Manning-era Colts?), so it's time to renew the protection in front of him in hopes of extending his career by a year or three.
He has all the receiving tools he needs, and if they get hurt, he has the ability to make practice-squad guys off the street look like all-pro players.
He just needs to not get smacked in the mouth by a charging defender every other down.
If the Chiefs reach for Nate Solder at 21, the Colts will be more than happy to nab Carimi.
23. Philadelphia Selects Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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In case you didn't get this, I expect the draft's third-best lineman to be in high demand near the conclusion of the first round.
Colorado's Nate Solder and Mississippi State's Derek Sherrod will be in the mix for these picks as well, but there's a pretty good chance everyone is going to want Carimi.
Remember, Philadelphia was originally thought to be playing Michael Vick in the hope that his mobility would cover for the Eagles' atrocious offensive line play. It was that offensive line play that got Kevin Kolb flattened during opening week and Vick his initial playing time in the first place.
Vick looks to be hanging around for a while now, but no matter how mobile he is, Andy Reid would do well to give him at least a chance to pass from the pocket.
Whether he takes the chance is another matter entirely.
24. New Orleans Selects Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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A perfect pick for New Orleans here.
Granted, nobody likes a bust, especially in the first round. But somebody is going to give Da'Quan Bowers a shot, because if he turns out to be healthy, he's a top-five talent.
New Orleans is not without needs, but they're strong enough now to endure it if Bowers can't contribute immediately, and resilient enough to get by if Bowers' health problems are career-threatening.
Of course, that's looking at it negatively. The best-case scenario is the Saints pick up a player many had slotted to go first overall, fill one of their biggest needs and don't have to move out of the 24th spot.
25. Seattle Selects Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
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A question for Seattle fans: With the knowledge that your team overachieved in 2010 as a result of playing in the NFC West, would you rather keep the 25th position in the draft and your single playoff win, or be drafting about 10 spots higher with the other 7-9 teams?
I mean, the Seattle Seahawks need a lot of stuff.
A lot. Maybe everything except linebackers (Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry holding it down there).
Secondary help is a good start, considering Smith is considered by some to be the second-best corner on the board (character concerns notwithstanding). This would be a great value pick for a team that could really use some of that right now.
26. Baltimore Selects Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State
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Any team that has ever employed Cory Redding has found themselves with a major dilemma.
Namely, "How do we get rid of Cory Redding?"
Detroit did it by trading him to Seattle. In return, they got Mike Holmgren wearing Julian Peterson's jersey and a football signed by Olindo Mare.
Seattle did it by just letting his contract expire.
Baltimore had a lapse of judgment and signed him to a two-year deal, but they can at least minimize Redding's impact on the team by signing Heyward to take over his starting role.
27. Atlanta Selects Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia
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Atlanta was one of the most well-rounded teams in football in 2010.
They were also largely boring, vanilla and lacking major playmakers on either side of the ball. The 2010 Falcons were without either a true weakness or a true strength, and the more explosive Packers exposed them in the playoffs.
Justin Houston would provide great value at the 27th pick, and would give them a sorely needed dynamic pass-rushing presence.
They could also go for a field-stretching wide receiver with this pick, but Houston provides better value given their draft position.
28. New England Selects a Second-Round Pick
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This might be a cop-out, but I would be stunned to see the Patriots take a player in this spot. They might not trade both their first-round picks, but they will almost certainly trade one of them.
I expect it to be this one. After almost an entire round of drafting, somebody is guaranteed to fall, and somebody in the top of the second round is guaranteed to be chomping at the bit to get him.
New England has the first pick in the second round, so they won't miss much action by trading this one back.
If the Patriots do take a player here, they would probably love to get their hands on Justin Houston or Mark Ingram. But I suspect they could get Ingram at the top of the second if he falls this far.
29. Chicago Selects Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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If the Chicago Bears want Jay Cutler to live to see 30, they have to do one of two things:
1. Fire Mike Martz.
2. Acquire someone for the offensive line who is capable of pass blocking.
Of the two, the second seems more likely. Nate Solder would be good for the Bears here, but given the expected run of OTs earlier in the first round, I don't know if he makes it to 29.
But he could, and that would make the Bears quite happy. Jay Cutler would be so happy, he might just crack a scowl.
30. New York Jets Select Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
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If Rex Ryan was the kind of guy to worry about guys on his team collapsing into a pile of previously connected limbs and body parts, he would never have signed LaDainian Tomlinson.
I don't expect injury concerns will stop him from drafting the new point man for his defense, either.
Sure, it might blow up in his face, but Ryan has never exactly been the type to worry about that, either.
I have to wonder, however, if Ryan's draft card will read, "Super Bowl XLVI Champion Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor."
31. Pittsburgh Selects Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
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One of Pittsburgh's starting linemen in the 2010 Super Bowl was a fourth-round pick for Detroit under Matt Millen.
"You know it's time to upgrade your offensive line when..."
Derek Sherrod would be crazy value here, and it would require a lot of teams passing up a lineman that need one (Kansas City and Philadelphia, for starters). But anything can happen in the bottom of the first, so I'll throw the AFC champs a bone here.
That, after all, is pretty much what this entire article is about.
32. Green Bay Selects Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
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The frightening thing about the Super Bowl champs is that they have very little in the way of major needs.
Ayers was once considered a top-15 lock, and possesses almost unrivaled athleticism. He could plug in across from Clay Matthews and make opposing offenses awfully nervous.
Ayers could be either a reach or a value pick here, depending on how you look at him. His current stock, amidst character and motor concerns, is around the top of the second round. But just based on his play and his physical ability, he's a high-mid first-round pick.
Whether the pick works out will depend on which Ayers shows up in Green Bay, but championship teams tend to be good for getting the best out of players.
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