NBA Playoffs 2011: Why the Memphis Grizzlies Will Defeat the San Antonio Spurs

The NBA playoffs are here, and despite claiming the Western Conference's No. 1 overall seed, the San Antonio Spurs are limping into the postseason, literally.

Guard Manu Ginobili injured his elbow in San Antonio's season finale Wednesday in Phoenix. To add insult to injury, the Spurs lost the game and watched Chicago win out to clinch the league's best record, giving them home-court advantage through the NBA Finals.

Next up for the Spurs is division rival Memphis. The eighth seeded-Grizzlies won 46 games this season, including two against San Antonio. Memphis even tanked their final two games in order to avoid the Lakers and clinch a first round match up with the Spurs.

Join B/R as we break down the season series between the Spurs and Grizzlies, and determine a winner in this Southwest division first round rodeo.

December 18, 2010: Spurs Defeat Grizzlies 112-106

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ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 05: Tony Parker #9 of the San Antonio Spurs against the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena on April 5, 2011 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user

Memphis and San Antonio met four times in 2010-2011, each winning two games on their home floor. The first match up saw the Spurs win in a shootout behind Tony Parker's 37 point outburst.

Memphis guard O.J. Mayo contributed nicely for the Grizzlies, pouring in 27 points on 11 of 19 shooting from the field.

Zach Randolph posted a huge double-double, 24 points and 21 rebounds, including 10 on the offensive end.

Marc Gasol and Tim Duncan both notched double-doubles, but it was the Spurs winning their twenty-third game of the season, dropping Memphis to four games below .500.

February 27, 2011: Spurs Defeat Grizzlies 95-88

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SAN ANTONIO, TX - DECEMBER 28: Guard Manu Ginobili #20 of the San Antonio Spurs during play against the Los Angeles Lakers at AT&T Center on December 28, 2010 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloadi

In a back-and-forth game, the Spurs rode a 36-point fourth quarter to another home win over the Grizzlies. Manu Ginobili was the difference maker, dropping 35 points, 13 of which came from the foul line.

Zach Randolph picked up where he left off in 2010, racking up yet another double-double (24 points and 17 rebounds).

A strong performance from the San Antonio bench helped the Spurs overcome below average nights from both Tony Parker and Tim Duncan, who scored a combined 14 points.

March 1, 2011: Grizzlies Defeat Spurs 109-93

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MEMPHIS, TN - NOVEMBER 20: Coach Lionel Hollins of the Memphis Grizzlies talks with Darrell Arthur #00 during a game against the Miami Heat at FedExForum on November 20, 2010 in Memphis, Tennessee. The Grizzlies won 97-95. NOTE TO USER: User expressly a

Last month's first match-up was won by the Grizzlies at home in a game that wasn't very close after halftime. The game was highlighted by Darrell Arthur's 21-point night off of the bench.

Gary Neal was the only Spurs player to score in double digits, with 14, and Memphis won by 16 points despite not hitting a single three-pointer.

Zach Randolph posted his third double-double of the series, contributing 21 points and 10 rebounds. The Grizzlies missed one free throw all night.

March 27, 2011: Grizzlies Defeat Spurs 111-104

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PHOENIX - DECEMBER 08: Rudy Gay #22 of the Memphis Grizzlies high fives teammate Zach Randolph #50 after scoring against the Phoenix Suns during the NBA game at US Airways Center on December 8, 2010 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Grizzlies defeated the Suns 10

The Grizzlies wrapped up their season series with the Spurs with a win at home. George Hill's 30-point effort wasn't enough to keep San Antonio from losing its third straight game overall.

Zach Randolph concluded his excellent play against the Spurs with his fourth double-double of the series, notching 23 points and 11 rebounds. Memphis was plus 13 on the boards, collecting 40 to the Spurs' 27.

Tim Duncan did not play and Manu Ginobili struggled immensely, scoring just two points in 19 minutes of play.

The season series ended a 2-2 split.

Breakdown

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MIAMI - MARCH 12: Guard Mike Conley #11 of the Memphis Grizzlie chats with the referee against the Miami Heat at American Airlines Arena on March 12, 2011 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or

We learned several things about both the Grizzlies and Spurs during their four-game regular season series. For one, Zach Randolph is a walking double-double when he faces his division rival.

We also know that Tony Parker can create lots of problems for Memphis defensively. Let's take a look at the regular season numbers for the Spurs' Big Three, compared to their match-ups with the Grizzlies.

The Big Three, or Big One?

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DENVER, CO - MARCH 23: Tony Parker #9 of the San Antonio Spurs looks on during a break in the against the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on March 23, 2011 in Denver, Colorado. The Nuggets defeated the Spurs 115-112. NOTE TO USER: User expressly ackno

With Manu Ginobili likely out in Game 1 because of the elbow injury, the Spurs will rely heavily on their bench, and of course Tony Parker and Tim Duncan.

However Parker is clearly the better match up for San Antonio, based on his production level against Memphis.

Tony Parker:

• 2010-2011 Regular Season: 17.5 PPG, 6.6 APG, 3.1 RPG, 51.9 FG%, 35.7 3PT%, 76.9 FT%
• 2010-2011 vs Memphis:       19.7 PPG, 5.7 APG, 2.3 RPG, 54.5 FG%, 66.7 3PT%, 52.9 FT%

Tim Duncan:

• 2010-2011 Regular Season: 13.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.9 BPG, 50.0 FG%, 71.6 FT%
• 2010-2011 vs Memphis:       11.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 3.3 BPG, 41.9 FG%, 88.9 FT%

Manu Ginobili:

• 2010-2011 Regular Season: 17.4 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.7 RPG, 43.3 FG%, 34.9 3PT%, 87.1 FT%
• 2010-2011 vs Memphis:       15.3 PPG, 6.5 APG, 3.0 RPG, 41.9 FG%, 17.6 3PT%, 84.6 FT%

Maybe It's Memphis' Time

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PHOENIX - NOVEMBER 05: O.J. Mayo #32 of the Memphis Grizzlies shoots a free throw shot during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center on November 5, 2010 in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, b

After looking at the Big Three's numbers against the Grizzlies, we can conclude that the Spurs struggle at times against a young and athletic team like Memphis. Ultimately, San Antonio hopes to wear down opponents in a half court game.

Zach Randolph doesn't mind. Take a look at how the Grizzlies have fared against the Spurs this season.

Zach Randolph:

• 2010-2011 Regular Season: 20.1 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, 50.3 FG%, 75.8 FT%
• 2010-2011 vs San Antonio:  23.0 PPG, 14.8 RPG, 3.5 APG, 42.7 FG%, 84.0 FT%

Mike Conley:

• 2010-2011 Regular Season: 13.7 PPG, 6.5 APG, 3.0 RPG, 44.4 FG%, 36.9 3PT %, 73.3 FT%
• 2010-2011 vs San Antonio:  15.5 PPG, 5.5 APG, 3.0 RPG, 54.2 FG%, 33.3 3PT %, 72.7 FT%

O.J. Mayo:

• 2010-2011 Regular Season: 11.3 PPG, 2.0 APG, 2.4 RPG, 40.7 FG%, 36.4 3PT%, 75.6 FT%
• 2010-2011 vs San Antonio:  13.3 PPG, 2.3 APG, 2.5 RPG, 48.8 FG%, 56.3 3PT%, 50.0 FT%

Prediction

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BOSTON, MA - MARCH 23: Tony Allen #9 of the Memphis Grizzlies celebrates after he made a three point shot in the second half against the Boston Celtics on March 23, 2011 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The Memphis Grizzlies defeated the Bosto

Tony Allen and the Memphis Grizzlies will be flying high after their first round match up with the top seeded San Antonio Spurs.

Most fans don't like their chances going up against a juggernaut like the Spurs without home-court advantage. I on the other hand, believe that Memphis has the advantage.

The Grizzlies have won the last two against their division rival, and can certainly hold their own in the paint with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.

This team reminds me a lot of the 2007 Golden State team that knocked off the top seeded-Mavericks. San Antonio invested a lot into the regular season and Ginobili's injury could be just the tip of the iceberg for a very veteran, but fragile, team.

Prediction: Memphis wins 4-2

Patrick Clarke is a Featured Columnist for the Phoenix Suns and a student at Towson University.