UFC 129: St. Pierre vs Shields and the Four Reasons Shields Will Be Champion

On April 30th, Georges St. Pierre will defend his Welterweight title for the sixth consecutive time. In his defenses, he has faced the top guys the UFC could give him. Each opponent that he has faced since winning the belt has been shut out. It is in strong consideration that he maybe the pound for pound number one fighter at the moment, though that is very debatable.

Jake Shields is the ultimate underdog. He is counted out in every fight, but still finds a way to win. He has won 15 fight in a row and eight of those wins were against top 15 guys in their respected divisions. He won the Rumble on the Rock Welterweight tournament, against a field of very good talent( Anderson Silva, Carlos Condit, and Yushin Okami). He is the former Shooto Middleweight Champion. He is the current EliteXC Welterweight Champion(company folded, but he never lost the belt). He is the former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion(never lost, but left for the UFC, so the belt was forfeited). He has all of the MMA credentials to show why he is legit and outside of MMA, his accomplishments are outstanding.

Of all challengers that St. Pierre has dealt with, Jake Shields is truly his toughest test and truly could defeat him. Here are five reasons on why Jake Shields will leave UFC 129 as the UFC Welterweight Champion of the world.

Great Training Camp

For this training camp, Jake has brought in a few people to help him train, as well as his own cross-training with others. He is training with Phil Davis, Chael Sonnen and Ben Askren. Those three alone are in the top 10% of best wrestlers in MMA. It is very obvious that Jake is going to take this fight to the ground. Working with Chael Sonnen is a great thing. Sonnen made Okami's game improve very fast and now it is paying off. It is highly doubtful that he did much striking with any of the three except with Sonnen and in that case, Sonnen would help him land shots to setup take downs.

In Jake's debut at UFC 121 against Martin Kampmann he truly struggled to cut weight because he made poor choices on his diet. Many people say that he lost that fight, but according to fight metric, it was a draw. Shields scored more points in two of the three rounds.

Going into the fight with St. Pierre, Jake is cutting his weight properly. At the  moment, Jake weighs 184lbs(Source: video interview on sherdog.com). With him having to only cut 14lbs for the fight, he can maintain a healthy weight. 

This is the fight Jake has wanted and the Gracie camp has been very quiet lately and look at how well his two teammates looked in their most recent bouts. Maybe Jake will come out the same way, if so, it could be a long night for GSP.

Grappling Expertise

St. Pierre has never faced anyone with the grappling expertise that Shields possesses. Jake's wrestling background isn't as great as many of St. Pierre's previous opponents, but his grappling credential's are the best.

It's not that Jake is great at setting up the take down or anything, he is just very calm and always sticks to his game plan until it works. Once Jake gets you down, it's rare to get back up.

People truly discredit Shields for what he has done and there are even many excuses for the Henderson  fight, in which he dominated four of the five rounds. In that fight, after being caught and dropped by a punch, Shields recovered and did what he does best–get the take down, pass the guard and maintain top control.

St. Pierre has excellent take down defense, but he has never faced someone that is going to go after the take down non-stop. That is truly all Jake is going to do and he is planning on frustrating St. Pierre and either win by Submission or Decision.

Striking Game

St. Pierre is obviously the better striker in this fight and there is no debate about that. The difference in the two is a weird match, though. St. Pierre is the technical guy, while Shields is the defensive guy that uses punches and kicks to setup takedowns.

Yes, GSP was caught by Serra, which was just a weird fight, but the odds in that happening in this fight are the same as the odds of me winning the lottery at this current moment(I didn't win). Shields will throw a couple of combos and shoot for the take down or time St. Pierre's punches and kicks in order to land effective take downs.

No matter what, GSP will win the stand up exchanges, but proper timing will make a huge difference for Shields.

Gameplan

Valerie Macon/Getty Images

HOLLYWOOD - MARCH 17: Strikeforce World Middleweight Champion Jake Shields attends the CBS' Strikeforce MMA Fighters Open Media Workout on March 17, 2010 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Valerie Macon/Getty Images)

Both men are great at sticking to game plans. Jake has won 15 in a row and he has the mental edge(my personal opinion). St. Pierre has the most pressure on him, because being the champion is not an easy task. So far, he hasn't had any trouble, but this could be the slip up.

GSP is the one that you have no idea about. He may repeat the Koscheck game plan or he may take a different approach.

Shields has the most obvious plan, but it always works so why change it?

Jake's camp has been quiet as of late, so there is no telling what we should expect and the same can be said for GSP.

The Outcome

A smart gameplan and a good support staff helps win championships. If Shields is fully prepared and his mindset is correct, then I have no doubt in my mind that he is taking that belt away from St. Pierre. If GSP fights like the "smart" GSP, then there is a great chance he snaps Shields' winning streak and proves that he truly is the P4P king.

So, the question is, who will win and how? Give your picks below.

My Pick: Jake Shields via third round submission.