2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: 6 Teams That Deserve to Make the Second Round
Sixteen teams start the NBA Playoffs at 0-0, with possibilities just around the corner. Only eight advance to the next round, as the other eight will have to wait until next year to try again.
The first round of the playoffs is always going to be a mixed bag. In most cases, there will be two or three teams who are all but guaranteed to be in the next round simply because they are so good (or, rather, too good).
But there are always a few favorites who have time, karma or any other assortment of supernatural powers working against them. And, since one action has an equal and opposite reaction, some underdogs have the stars aligned in their favor and strike the favorites while they're down.
I want to look at six teams that deserve to advance from Round 1 to Round 2.
Note: I'm leaving off the "untouchables," those that would need a health epidemic to hit them and reduce their squad to legless invalids who need an iron lung to survive in order to lose to their first-round opponent.
This list is teams that WILL or SHOULD get through because they are: (a) more talented, (b) are due because the law of averages HAS to exist, or (c) are good guys worth rooting for. If you are going to Vegas based on this article you are going to lose lots of money. It's just an opinion.
The Atlanta Hawks
1 of 6
Regular Season Record
44-38 (No. 5 seed)
Playoff Record in last 10 Years
11-18, 2 series wins (both first round)
Last Playoff Appearance
2010 Eastern Semis vs. Orlando (lost 0-4)
2011 First Round Opponent
Orlando Magic (52-30, No. 4 seed)
Reasons Why They Deserve/Destined to Win
Revenge
The Hawks not only got swept by the Magic last year, but it capped off a three-year span in which the Magic won 10-of-12 meetings (in which one of their two wins was a buzzer-beating tip-in).
The Hawks were simply dominated. Game 1 was a 114-71 spanking. The best the Hawks could do was get within 14 twice, losing by an average 25 PPG (the fourth-highest margin of victory in NBA history).
It's Just Time
The Hawks started their revenge job early, taking three games out of four in the regular season against the Magic.
Spunk Stays in the Picture
The Hawks, until their epic collapse in 2010, are known for playing annoying, if not consistent, spunky basketball. They brought the 2008 eventual champion Celtics to seven games and fought off pesky Heat and Bucks squads in '09 and '10.
It's time their brutal, sometimes ugly, playoff style gets rewarded with a victory against one of the bigger warts on their resume: the Magic.
Players With Something to Prove
Joe Johnson needs to justify not only his contract, but the "Suns Would Have Won if Johnson Was Healthy" rhetoric that has helped Johnson maintain the clutch tag he's received but hasn't lived up to.
Note: I am Magic fan, just so you know.
The New York Knicks
2 of 6
Regular Season Record
42-40 (No. 6 seed)
Playoff Record in last 10 Years
2-7, 0 series wins
Last Playoff Appearance
2004 Eastern First Round vs. New Jersey (lost 0-4)
2011 First Round Opponent
Boston Celtics (56-26, No. 3 seed)
Reasons Why They Deserve/Destined to Win
Revenge
Time to get the King for skipping out on New York. What better way to face the Miami Heat then to beat the Celtics.
It's Just Time
The Knicks last won a playoff series in 2000 under Jeff Van Gundy. Since then, they''ve only made the playoffs twice and haven't actually won ONE playoff game since 2001. Their appearance in the 2011 playoffs marks the first time since 2004 they'll have a shot at getting that elusive playoff victory.
Clash of the Titans
The Knicks possess the ability to score at will but leak opponent points like a sieve. Seeing the offensively potent Knicks against the defending Eastern Conference champs, who pride themselves on defense, should be quite bombastic. In the end, who can run the fastest!
Coaches With Something to Prove
Mike D'Antoni needs a playoff series victory. He needs ANY kind of victory (even a 4-3 series loss will give him something to work with).
So far, D'Antoni has been Steve Nash's success (not the other way around) and this has only been exacerbated by Amar'e showing up and...the Knicks are still barely above .500. A playoff success into the second round, especially against the Celtics, a perennial contender, would do a lot for New York, but even more for D'Antoni.
The Oklahoma City Thunder
3 of 6
Regular Season Record
55-27 (No. 4 seed)
Playoff Record in last 10 Years (not including Seattle)
2-4, 0 series wins (only three years as OKC)
Last Playoff Appearance
2010 Western First Round vs. Los Angeles Lakers (lost 4-2)
2011 First Round Opponent
Denver Nuggets (50-32, No. 5 seed)
Reasons Why They Deserve/Destined to Win
It's Just Time
The Thunder are passively-aggressively hated in the Pacific West by people who feel Seattle let them down. And until the Thunder make their mark on the playoff landscape as the Thunder (and not the Team Formerly Known as the Sonics) then they can let Seattle go and move on. OKC can forge it's own legacy.
What A Bunch of Good Guys
I don't know anybody (or could imagine anybody) who hates these guys. You look at Kevin Durant and just go "awww, what a cute little scoring champ." You see James Harden and figure listening to music with him would be cool. Russell Westbrook, let's grab a drink! Kendrick Perkins...oh, well....I'll leave you alone...but Scotty Brooks! Bowling? No?
Players/Team With Something to Prove
Durant was the preseason MVP and he didn't even get close. His team was supposed to barnstorm the West, but it didn't quite happen like that. The Thunder had high expectations and lived up to about 80 percent of them.
The Denver Nuggets
4 of 6
Regular Season Record
50-32 (No. 5 seed)
Playoff Record in last 10 Years
16-26, 2 series wins (both in '09)
Last Playoff Appearance
2010 Western First Round vs. Utah (lost 4-2)
2011 First Round Opponent
Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27, No. 4 seed)
Reasons Why They Deserve/Destined to Win
Revenge
Not a direct revenge, mind you, but a way for Denver to say "we don't need you 'Melo." Carmelo Anthony's greatest playoff success was in college. Two series wins in seven years (with six first-round exits) just doesn't cut it. If Denver gets to Round 2, and the Knicks don't, it'll help the Nuggets get over 'Melo easier (if they haven't already).
It's Just Time
The 16-26 record in the last 10 years is marred by the fact that the Nuggets won 10 of them in one year ('09).
The Nuggets made a habit of losing in the first round for five straight years ('04 to '08) and six years out of seven. They've got a great coach who has gone through personal turmoil, a major franchise shakeup that has, unexpectedly, brought on a new confidence and excellent results and just look at the records (the Nuggets lost to the Clippers one year in the playoffs...the Clippers!)...they're due.
Nothing More Dangerous Than A Franchise Scorned
The Nuggets might not need 'Melo but they want to show him that (see "Revenge" above).
Players With Something to Prove
Raymond Felton was immensely responsible for the Knicks resurgence early in the year as he was having a career season. He was rejected for 'Melo and has now led a Nuggets squad past the doubts of failure.
The Portland Trail Blazers
5 of 6
Regular Season Record
48-34 (No. 6 seed)
Playoff Record in last 10 Years
7-16, 0 series wins
Last Playoff Appearance
2010 Western First Round vs. Phoenix (lost 4-2)
2011 First Round Opponent
Dallas Mavericks (57-25, No. 3 seed)
Reasons Why They Deserve/Destined to Win
It's Just Time
The last time the Blazers were competitive in the playoffs in 2000, they had that epic collapse against the Los Angeles Lakers, with highlights playing ad nauseum in those "Where Amazing Happens" commercials.
The Blazers, who also haven't got out of the first round since then, have showed a lot of heart and pride, even in the midst of heartbreaking injury woes and draft picks that go boom. It's time they got a little love by moving on.
Good Karma
Most Portland players bust a knee or pull a muscle that keeps them out for weeks. If they're lucky, they'll have surgery and come into play a few days later despite the risks Brandon Roy). It wouldn't surprise me if some Portland players just ceased to exist, so unlucky is their club with physical problems. But they've nearly won 50 games despite it all, and have fate—good fate—on their side.
Players With Something to Prove
I've got to thank ESPN's 5 for 5 column for pointing this out to me: Andre Miller. The dude has never won a playoff series. I'm filing that in my "that both surprises me but doesn't surprise me" brain file. The dude has been a resilient and talented player for years and deserves a playoff win.
The Memphis Grizzlies
6 of 6
Regular Season Record
46-36 (No. 8 seed)
Playoff Record in last 10 Years
0-12, 0 series wins
Last Playoff Appearance
2006 Western First Round vs. Dallas (lost 4-0)
2011 First Round Opponent
San Antonio Spurs (61-21, No. 1 seed)
Reasons Why They Deserve/Destined to Win
Revenge
The Grizzlies had their first ever winning season—and their only 50-win season—and first ever playoff berth in 2003/2004. The Spurs soundly destroyed them in four quick games by an average of 14 PPG (one game was decided by two points, though). They get a chance to meet a slumping No. 1 seed in San Antonio and revenge will be on their mind. It's not personal, of course: just historical
It's Just Time
Not only zero series wins in Grizzly history.but no game wins as well. They got swept all three times as a No.6, No. 8, and No. 5 seed. They were never on the positive side of the playoff bracket, but they certainly deserved to win a game or two.
Players With Something to Prove
Marc Gasol's brother has three straight Finals berths and two shiny rings on his fingers. Time for Marc to make some playoff noise and do what Pau couldn't: bring victories to Memphis in the playoffs.
