2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Projecting the East's First Round Series Winners
"When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose."
Bob Dylan probably wasn’t talking about NBA Championships.
He definitely wasn’t talking about Derrick Rose. Or LeBron James.
But his shrewd mumblings neatly portray the polarized outlooks of the East’s two biggest stakeholders.
In one corner you have the Chicago Bulls. No. 1 seed. League MVP Derrick Rose. Youthful exuberance to boot and a solid defensive mindset destined to take them deep into the playoffs.
Nothing to defend. Nothing to lose.
Then, of course, there’s the Miami Heat. A team Pat Riley manufactured for championship success.
Nothing less will suffice.
A heavy reliance on star power, a bench lacking in depth and a media frenzy often unrelenting in its wrath.
Did we miss something?
Oh yeah, there’s those defending Eastern Conference champion Celtics too. Bruised, battered but battle-hardened and impossible to discount.
Conference finalists the past two seasons, the Orlando Magic at least deserve a mention.
At this stage, anything more is borderline flattery.
With streaky outside threats and an unhealthy dependence on the league’s most dominant big man, the Magic may struggle to get out of the first round.
But more about Dwight and his Magic later on.
Here’s a look at the first round playoff picture in the East.
Chicago Bulls (1) vs. Indiana Pacers (8)
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The Bulls haven’t looked this good since some guy named Jordan engrossed the masses at the United Center.
In contrast, the Pacers have been scrambling for the final spot in the East for weeks. In fact, if there was any danger of the Bucks ever closing out a tight game, Indiana might not be here at all.
Sounds like a foregone conclusion, right?
Unfortunately, yes.
Danny Granger’s optimistic trash-talking notwithstanding, this one’s purely academic.
Chicagoans, ready your brooms.
The Bulls took the season series 3-1 and held the Pacers to under 90 points all but once.
If Indiana can steal a game or two, they can certainly claim to have progressed.
Roy Hibbert’s size has the potential to cause Tom Thibadeau a few minor headaches, but without any post-season success, his potency doesn’t exactly ring alarm bells.
The Bulls are simply too talented, too fast and too deep.
Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer are healthy again. Luol Deng is now a potent offensive threat. And Derrick Rose is, well, Derrick Rose.
‘Nuff said.
Prediction: Bulls in four.
Miami Heat (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)
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It’s a point of much contention. Where do Miami’s post-season fortunes lie?
In the play of LeBron James? Dwyane Wade? The outside shooting of Bibby, Jones and Miller? The paint defense of Joel Anthony and his fellow front-court troops?
For those playing at home, it’s none of the above.
Just how deep the Heat progress these playoffs is at the hands of Chris Bosh. Bosh is the X-Factor.
In seven seasons at the Raptors, post-season success for Bosh was as rare as an Andrea Bargnani inside presence.
The Heat will likely win as many games in the first week of the post-season as Bosh won his entire Raptors’ tenure.
If Bosh is an aggressive, inside threat, the Sixers will simply have too many offensive threats to combat.
In the regular season sweep, Wade led Miami in scoring in all three games, averaging 30.7 points.
If it’s not Wade, it’s going to be James.
And the Sixers just don’t have the defensive manpower to shutdown this kind of scoring muscle.
Only Dallas has won more games than the Heat on the road this year and it would surprise many if the Sixers managed to snatch even one at home.
Prediction: Heat in four.
Boston Celtics (3) vs. New York Knicks (6)
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The Boston Celtics have literally limped into the post-season.
There’s no stability about their rotation. No form line on which to base a strong championship run.
They even rested their starters Monday night in a road loss to the Wizards.
Delusions of grandeur?
Perhaps. But when you’re the reigning Eastern Conference champions, you have every right to be granted a little profligacy.
If recent history is anything to by, the Celtics know how to get it done when it matters most.
The Knicks meanwhile, are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2004.
The Garden is rockin’.
Winners of seven straight before tonight’s loss at the hands of the conference-clinching Bulls, the Knicks shouldn’t be discounted.
But can they convert their recent form line to post-season success?
Neither team appears to be fully in sync since the changes made at the trade deadline. But one feels the Celtics are a better chance of bringing a playoff-ready structure to the first round.
One doesn’t often associate the Knicks with defense and therein lies the problem.
The Celtics don’t need to score 100 points to win a basketball game.
Their half-court defense is good enough to contain the Knicks offense whereas the Knicks won’t be able to slow the Celtics with the same precision.
Then there’s Rondo.
Or triple-double Rondo if his playoffs record is anything to go by.
It’s hard to see Chauncey Billups staying in front of the Celtics point guard which means plenty of open looks for Ray Allen and Paul Pierce.
And if KG is knocking them down from the block, you can forget about it.
Prediction: Celtics in five.
Orlando Magic (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)
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Stan Van Gundy’s Magic live and die by the perimeter. There’s no two ways about it.
Last May they were hot, obliterating the Hawks 4-0 by an aggregate 100+ points.
This year, they were stone cold, shooting just 23 percent from beyond the arc in four regular season meetings with Atlanta.
Oh, and the Hawks pinched three of those too.
Where does that leave us?
New head coach aside, the Hawks look much the same as the franchise that took seven games to eliminate the Bogut-less Bucks in the first round last year.
The Magic are a far different looking outfit. Dwight Howard is still the dominant center in the league and Jameer Nelson still runs the floor. But the fate of the Magic lies in the hands of its latest additions. Gilbert Arenas and Hedo Turkoglu are both struggling to rediscover their niche, while Jason Richardson is among the more streaky shooters in the league.
With little hype of their own, the Atlanta Hawks might just steal this one.
Howard will likely win one or even two of these games on his own, but if the Hawks solid perimeter defenders can lock down the Magic’s offensive threats, Van Gundy might be left without a plan B.
Don’t expect either of these teams to cause much post-season damage, but they may well give us the best series of the first round.
Prediction: Hawks in seven.
