2011 NBA Playoffs: The Oklahoma City Thunder's Chances vs. the Best of the West
Just as it does for all NBA playoff teams, the matchups posed by the playoffs will have a significant effect on the Oklahoma City Thunder’s chances to advance and win the title they have been building toward for the past four years.
Each potential playoff opponent could challenge and be challenged by the Thunder in many different ways. Now that we know what Western Conference teams will be fighting for a chance at the title, what are the specific pros and cons for the Thunder in each of their potential matchups with the West's playoff teams?
(Teams are shown in order of current playoff seeding.)
8. Memphis Grizzlies
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Season Series: Grizzlies 3-1
Pros: The Grizzlies would be without their best player in Rudy Gay. Besides that, the Thunder would have a few advantages against the Grizzlies, one of which being their veteran leadership presence in Kendrick Perkins, Nazr Mohammed and Nick Collison, something that Memphis seriously lacks. (The only Grizzly veteran whose experience could even hope to match that of those three is Shane Battier.)
The biggest advantage for the Thunder in this matchup is their bench. The Grizzlies’ second team averages about 23.5 points per game, while that of the Thunder averages nearly 40 points per game. James Harden leads the way, averaging 16.2 points per game since the All-Star break.
Cons: Despite all of the above mentioned pros for the Thunder, they still have an amazingly hard time against this team. Two of the biggest reasons for this are Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, two big men offensively gifted enough to match up well with the Thunder’s strong, defensive-minded frontcourt.
Another matchup problem for the Thunder is Tony Allen, former Oklahoma State guard and Boston Celtic, who was reportedly upset that the Thunder were not interested in his services last offseason as a free agent. Allen has reacted by averaging 22 points per game in the Grizzlies' three wins against the Thunder (13.1 points above his regular season average).
If I had to predict: Thunder in seven
7. New Orleans Hornets
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Season series: Thunder 3-1
Pros: New Orleans will be without David West, who presents a major matchup problem as a solid power forward who can do major damage scoring from the outside.
As a result, New Orleans won’t have much of a viable low post scoring threat, which would allow the Thunder to focus most of their attention on containing Chris Paul.
Cons: Paul is a savvy veteran and Russell Westbrook has not fared as well against him as one might think. Westbrook has averaged 20 points and almost 50 percent field goal shooting against Paul, but has averaged 6 turnovers per game in their matchups. That is the biggest problem that could potentially damage the Thunder in a playoff matchup with the Hornets.
If I had to predict: Thunder in five
6. Portland Trailblazers
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Season series: Thunder 3-1
Pros: Brandon Roy’s injury would be key in this matchup and, though he’s been recovering, he probably would still not be well enough to lead his Blazers past the Thunder.
Gerald Wallace has been known to do damage against the Thunder, but he’s no match for Durant, who can out-clutch him and outscore him if necessary, just as he did March 27th in a 99-90 Thunder win (Wallace had 40 in that game).
Cons: Much like Zach Randolph, LaMarcus Aldridge is a power forward big enough and offensively talented enough to match the defensive capabilities of Serge Ibaka or Kendrick Perkins and maybe even surpass them.
Plus, the Trail Blazers are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, which always helps in the playoffs.
If I had to predict: Thunder in six
5. Denver Nuggets
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Season series: Thunder 3-1
Pros: Denver’s new style of play since the departure of Carmelo Anthony (fast-paced, balanced scoring) is very effective against many teams, but it doesn’t match up well against the Thunder. The Thunder are young enough to run with the Nuggets and defend them successfully (on Friday, they held the Nuggets 15 points under their average and to just 8 fast break points).
The biggest pro for the Thunder is Denver’s lack of a go-to guy to match Kevin Durant late in games. Durant has averaged 31.5 points per game against them this season. And now the Nuggets have no one who can even hope to keep up with him.
Cons: All of that said, Denver is a very deep team that has many bench players who would be starting for other teams. They are one of the few teams in the NBA who have the potential to match the Thunder’s second team.
If I had to predict: Thunder in five
3. Dallas Mavericks
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Season Series: Mavericks 2-1
Pros: The Thunder are much younger than the Mavericks and their energy may their biggest pro. The Mavericks are also prone to choking in the playoffs, which would be another clear advantage for the Thunder who displayed their postseason mettle last year against the Lakers.
They also have a tough time stopping Durant, who leads the league in points per game against the Mavs this season.
Cons: The Mavericks are a deep team that would have less trouble with the Thunder bench than most teams. They also have a lot more NBA experience as one of the older teams in the NBA.
Russell Westbrook has offset Durant’s success against the Mavs by struggling against them; he’s averaged just 14.3 points per game on 32 percent shooting.
Plus, Dirk Nowitzki, a seven-foot perimeter player, is a matchup nightmare for any team.
If I had to predict: Mavericks in six
2. Los Angeles Lakers
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Seasons series: Lakers 2-0 (Third game in series on Sunday, April 10)
Pros: Derek Fisher couldn’t guard Russell Westbrook if his life depended on it, which would ultimately force Kobe to guard him. Westbrook’s energy and ability to get to the rim could tire even Kobe out, making him less effective on the opposite end of the floor.
Plus, Kendrick Perkins has proven time and again that he can effectively guard both Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, one-on-one.
Not to mention the fact that Oklahoma City, who took LA to six games in the first round last year, has improved greatly while the Lakers' quality of play has declined at least a bit.
Cons: Obviously, Kobe Bryant is the biggest con, just as he is for every Laker opponent.
Compound the problem he presents with the fact that Perkins and Ibaka would be outnumbered by Odom, Gasol and Bynum and that Ron Artest has proven that he is the most effective player defensively against Kevin Durant in the league and what do you get?
If I had to predict it: Lakers in seven
1. San Antonio Spurs
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Season Series: Spurs 3-0
Pros: The Spurs are really old. Good, but old. The Thunder youth would keep them close if not push them over the edge to some wins. The Thunder have the size advantage, since they have a more youthful and defensively talented frontcourt. They could also combat the Spurs depth effectively with their talented bench.
Cons: However, their youth may also be one of their disadvantages. The Thunder can have a hard time executing late in close games, especially with inbounds plays. This is especially worrisome against the Spurs, who can be picture-perfect when it comes to executing plays.
The Spurs ability to put savvy veterans at each spot on the floor could make it tough for the Thunder to guard them. The Spurs are also probably the team with the best shot of out-smarting the Thunder.
If I had to predict it: Spurs in six
