FIFA 2010 World Cup: How the Dutch Will Crush Spain in Sunday's Final

This is really a great final.  Perfect styles, classy players, solid, attacking strategy and, to me anyway, the two best teams of the tournament.  As I mentioned a while back, I like the Netherlands.

Lots of folks were a bit too enamored of Germany, following it’s dismantling of an aged, fractured, and slow England, and a back-line-less Argentina.  Brazil showed that bully-ball is all well and good, but bullies struggle when they get popped in the nose. 

The Dutch are undefeated and provided that needed punch.  Spain are trying to become the first ever team to lose its opening match and go to win the tournament.

I favor the Dutch in this match because I believe, as Coach Royal was fond of saying, “You got to dance with who brung you.” 

Also, I think Germany did show how to beat Spain.  They just, somehow, left Puyol unmarked on a set piece, which is a very strange way for Germany to concede a goal to Spain.  At the beginning of the match, if I’d been told there would only be one goal, and that it would come from a header, I would have been certain that Germany would be the winner.

Germany did much of what I expected them to do.  They played with two holding central midfielders and were decently effective at shutting Iniesta down.  It’s impossible to completely stop Spain’s triangle passing, but it is possible to play high pressure on the fartherest upfield of their midfielders—usually Xavi and Iniesta—which forces Spain to play through Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets. 

Really, you pick your poison against a team like Spain and the poison you pick are the more defensive of their midfield players.

I expect the Netherlands to use the exact same strategy, with the Dutch players in place of the Germans.  Snjeider in place of Ozil; Van Bommel and De Jong in place of Schweinsteiger and Khedira; Van Persie for Klose; Kuyt for Podolski; Robben for the fairly anonymous German outside midfielders. 

I think I like the Dutch array better than the German.  And the German array held Spain to one goal on a corner kick.  This Spanish team is a lot of good things, but prolific ain’t one of them.

A key for the Dutch, I think, is starting Eljero Elia.  Paraguay showed that the best way to attack the Spanish defense is to use speed.  If the Dutch have Elia on one side and Robben on the other then they will give Spain hell. 

In addition, against a team like Spain, who possess the ball so comfortably, you have to be able to counter-attack quickly.  If I’m managing any team against Spain, I put as much speed as possible on the field.

I think Van Bommel and De Jong are going to successfully disrupt the Spanish passing game in the final third, probably not in a pretty dominant fashion—think the mujahideen against the Soviets. 

I don’t think Villa is going to get much service and that he is going to have a frustrating match. 

I think Sneijder will shred Busquets and Puyol. 

I think Robben will use Ramos the way Henry Miller used whores—regularly, disdainfully, and with high-handed disregard. 

I think Van Persie will continue to be a non-factor because he lacks the pace to trouble Puyol and Pique, but that he will be useful in making his usual intelligent space-clearing off the ball movements.

As for Spain, well, I suspect we’ll see the same lineup we saw yesterday.  Pedro contributed greatly by providing width, although Villa looked a bit uncomfortable as a lone front-runner.  Torres is a shell of who he once was.  Knee injuries can do that to a player who relies on pace.  Maybe he’ll make it back someday; it won’t be at this World Cup. 

I expect that Spain will struggle for goals, as is explained above. 

They are having a difficult time freeing up Iniesta, which is drying up their goal opportunities.  This is partially because they have chosen strategically to protect their weakness—a lack of pace at the back—by playing two covering central midfielders.  That’s fine so long as you take your chances when they come. 

The Spanish defense has been as good as that of any team in the tournament, which is not what most folks expected, myself included, coming in.  But the sacrifice has been to the cutting edge up front.  I suspect that an in-form Torres and Villa would provide sufficient firepower, even with little support, but that ain’t the world as it currently exists.

So my call—The Netherlands 1 – Spain 0.  Come on you Orange.

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