College Football Playoff Notebook: Cincinnati Isn't Out, but Things Look Bleak
Since the College Football Playoff began in 2014, we have wondered what it would require for a team outside of a major conference to crack the final four.
Over the years, the selection committee has made it clear that it does not much care for or appreciate "Group of Five" teams. And we were reminded once again Tuesday night that a solution might not come until the playoff field expands.
Cincinnati fans have the right to be angry. The selection committee placed the undefeated Bearcats at No. 6 in the first College Football Playoff rankings of the year, behind No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Michigan State, No. 4 Oregon and No. 5 Ohio State.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Only two of the teams ranked above Cincinnati are unbeaten.
Oh, and one—cough, Oregon, cough—lost a game to 3-5 Stanford. (We should probably talk about this second part a bit more.)
The reality the Bearcats face is pretty simple given the remaining schedule and initial ranking: A lot likely will be required to make the College Football Playoff, and "a lot" might not even suffice.
In fact, Cincinnati doesn't just have to worry about teams in front of it.
No. 7 Michigan could find a way in as well if the Wolverines figure out how to finally conquer Ohio State. No. 8 Oklahoma is in a position to jump the Bearcats with the meat of the schedule remaining. And even Wake Forest, which debuted at No. 9, could very well cruise past the Bearcats if the trend continues.
As Mike Tomlin said when asked about the possibility of becoming head coach at USC, "Never say never. But never."
In a lot of ways, this feels like an accurate summary of Cincinnati's playoff chances at the moment.
Gary Barta, the College Football Playoff selection committee chair, says otherwise.
"Cincinnati has tremendous respect from the committee," Barta said on national television when asked about the committee's thoughts about the Bearcats.
He then, somewhat seamlessly, disassembled the team's schedule and best wins. And with that, the annual tradition of disregarding teams outside of major conferences proved to be alive and well.
There's still plenty of time for things to change. Maybe Alabama or Ohio State will drop a game unexpectedly. Maybe Oregon will lose to Washington this week. Maybe the help necessary to create a perfect pathway for the Bearcats will take shape over the coming weeks.
Maybe, just maybe, No. 6 is the floor.
With only one team remaining on Cincinnati's schedule that currently has a winning record, it feels unlikely. And after lackluster performances against Navy and Tulane in recent weeks, the committee had enough doubts to leave the Bearcats out.
Better luck next year? Perhaps we're not quite there yet. Plus, at this point we should know better than to assume things will be any different.
Read on for more takeaways from the first playoff rankings of the year.
Let's Talk About Oklahoma, Shall We?
I'll give the selection committee some credit. Ranking Oklahoma at No. 8 is actually quite fair.
While we are accustomed to seeing blue-blood programs get a pass and wiggle their way up the rankings further than they should, especially early on, putting the undefeated Sooners below Michigan was a nice touch.
It has been a couple of weeks since Oklahoma looked dreadful against Kansas. The Sooners also won close games against Tulane, Nebraska and West Virginia.
The schedule has been unbelievably favorable, although it doesn't help that Texas has forgotten how to win football games. That was the Sooners' biggest resume boost to date, and it seems to worsen by the week.
The good news for Oklahoma, however, is that the meat of the schedule is coming.
Lincoln Riley's team plays at Baylor (No. 12), against Iowa State and at Oklahoma State (No. 11) to close out the year. Plus, it could have another chance to validate its ranking in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Obviously, starting off at No. 8—while appropriate—is less than ideal. But by no means is this team out of the mix.
Where on Earth Is UTSA?
Sure, Wisconsin and Mississippi State have played tougher schedules. No one will deny that when pulling up the resume of UTSA.
But Mississippi State and Wisconsin have lost three games. UTSA has lost none. Heck, UTSA beat Memphis—a team Mississippi State lost to (albeit with a little nudge from the officials).
The Roadrunners will likely be ranked at some point if they continue to win. We've seen this rodeo a few times now.
At some point, however, we must embrace a team for winning all of its games, even if those games came against lesser competition.
The fact that we are awarding teams for good wins and ignoring bad losses—a theme that can be seen throughout these rankings—is just a tad concerning.
More than anything, we should award greatness. We should really highlight and celebrate perfection. In this instance, we are doing the opposite.
Regardless, go Roadrunners. Meep, meep.
Most Importantly, Don't Forget This Ranking Means Nothing
It's early November. I cannot remind you of this enough.
The only College Football Playoff ranking truly worth paying attention to is the last one. Full stop.
That ranking will take place on Sunday, December 5. Might as well mark it on the calendar now.
In some ways, the selection committee has been dealt an impossible task. Without a complete season or conference championship results to assess, these rankings mean very little.
They show their work every week amid massive fluctuations in results, and then the internet gets mad about it. This is not an easy assignment given how many variables there are to consider.
We then do the same thing the following week, and we still can't help but get angry about it.
That's actually the goal of this exercise; to sell television ads and drum up interest in college football's postseason.
This exercise, while relatively pointless in the moment, does a wonderful job of marketing itself.
It's unnecessary, infuriating and often perplexing.
And I can't wait for next week. See you there.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
