Are Superteam Buccaneers One-and-Done or Tom Brady's Next Dynasty?
"Yeah, we're coming back."
For Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans, those were the four most important words that came out of 43-year-old Tom Brady's mouth as he celebrated his seventh Super Bowl victory and accepted his fifth Super Bowl MVP award Sunday night in Florida.
There was little doubt, but Brady, who looked as though he hardly broke a sweat in a 31-9 blowout victory over the juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs, made that declaration with such confidence and swagger that it was hard not to start thinking about the 2021 Buccaneers. Maybe even the 2022 Buccaneers and—dare we say it?—the 2023 Buccaneers?
When Brady signed with the Bucs in March, it was fair to wonder if this would be one of those awkward late-career cameos a la Emmitt Smith with the Arizona Cardinals or Jerry Rice with the Seattle Seahawks. Now, there's little reason to believe "Tompa Bay" won't be in the Super Bowl picture with the oldest regular starting quarterback in NFL history next year.
Let's break down Tampa's future with No. 12 under center.
The Trajectory Is Promising
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Remember, these new-look Buccaneers came together in the midst of a global pandemic that resulted in a severely limited offseason and the cancellation of the entire preseason. Brady's top two wide receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, were on and off the field as a result of several early-season injuries, and the offense struggled in big games, in prime time and—understandably—on short rest as Tampa Bay started 7-5.
But the Bucs overcame those growing pains and took off after their Week 13 bye.
Since then, they've gone 8-0 with an averaging scoring margin of 34-19 during a stretch that included playoff games against the top seed from each conference, postseason matchups with four division champions and only two true home games.
Now, they'll be much more familiar with each other from the outset of what should be a more comfortable and involved offseason.
They should benefit greatly from that familiarity, momentum, experience and confidence as they attempt to run it back in 2021.
They Can Bring Everyone Back
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Only six teams are projected by Spotrac to enter the offseason with more salary-cap space than the Bucs, who could raise even more money by addressing walk-year contracts possessed by Brady (due for a $28.4 million cap hit in 2021), left tackle Donovan Smith ($14.3 million), edge-defender Jason Pierre-Paul ($12.5 million) and center Ryan Jensen ($10 million).
That should make it easy for the Bucs to bring back impending in-house free agents like Godwin, pass-rusher Shaquil Barrett, linebacker Lavonte David, running back Leonard Fournette, defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh, tight end Rob Gronkowski and receiver Antonio Brown.
Meanwhile, fellow NFC contenders like the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams are completely strapped for salary-cap space and are likely to suffer significant losses on the open market. Per Spotrac, the only NFC squad in better cap shape than the Bucs is the Washington Football Team, who made the playoffs but posted a losing record in 2020.
With that in mind, Tampa Bay looks like the clear-cut Super Bowl LVI favorite in that conference right now.
Save for Brady and Suh, They're Pretty Young
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Brady will be 44 in August, and Suh turned 34 last month. But no other member of the Bucs' core is older than 32 (Brown is 32, Pierre-Paul just turned 32, and Gronk and David are 31).
They probably don't win this Super Bowl without 22-year-old rookies Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr. at right tackle and safety, respectively, or without 22-year-old sophomore linebacker Devin White. Fellow starting safety Jordan Whitehead and electric back Ronald Jones II are both 23, while Godwin and top cornerback Carlton Davis are just 24.
With the exception of the practically irreplaceable Brady, all their older players are also potentially covered by strong young talents at the same position. Pierre-Paul has the support of the 28-year-old Barrett, Suh has 26-year-old Vita Vea, and White is essentially David's protege.
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Quarterbacks Often Decline Abruptly, but Brady Might Be the Exception
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Peyton Manning was the league MVP at age 37 and a Pro Bowler with a triple-digit passer rating at 38. As a 39-year-old in 2015, he and Ryan Mallett were the lowest-rated qualified passers in the NFL. Meanwhile, Brett Favre was a Pro Bowler with the league's second-highest passer rating in his age-40 season but was the league's third-lowest-rated qualified passer as a 41-year-old.
NFL quarterbacks don't often fade slowly and gracefully. Instead, they fall off cliffs.
That could absolutely happen to Brady on delay in 2021. He looked to be declining rapidly in his final season with the New England Patriots and struggled with his deep passes during the first three-quarters of his debut campaign in Tampa.
Eventually, Father Time will get the best of even Brady.
But there's plenty of reason to believe that won't happen just yet.
In Tampa Bay's first 12 games, Brady threw more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (five) and posted a 79.0 passer rating on deep attempts. But between Tampa's Week 13 bye and Super Bowl LV, he threw nine touchdown passes to only four interceptions and had a 110.2 rating on those throws. And on Sunday night, he was even better with a 127.8 rating on deep attempts.
Brady is famously committed to an incredibly strict diet and exercise regimen. It's entirely possible—and maybe even likely—that he could continue to dominate with a strong supporting cast well beyond his upcoming age-44 season.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Follow him on Twitter: @Brad_Gagnon.
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