Playing Keep or Trade with NBA's Top Available Stars
The NBA's March 25 trade deadline will be here sooner than you think, and several teams can already hear the clock ticking.
Except the Washington Wizards, apparently. The organization holding one of the league's most valuable trade chips has its fingers in its ears. That won't stop us from including Bradley Beal among the names here; he's been a rumor-mill (and on-court) superstar all season.
Beal is good example of how we'll stretch the definition of "available." Ideally, we'd like reports and rumors that a high-end player could be moved. Logic will intercede where we lack those. Maybe Beal isn't technically on the block, but the reality of his team's situation overwhelmingly suggests he should be.
From there, it's simple. We'll weigh in on whether the team with the "available" player should make a move.
Consider this practice for when the market really heats up in a week or two.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
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The Bradley Beal situation is a prime example of just how unkillable speculation can become.
Both he and the Washington Wizards have been adamant that neither party wants to split up, per Shams Charania and Fred Katz of The Athletic, and yet here we are leading this off with Beal among the "available" stars.
What would Beal or the Wizards have to do to put all this to bed? Reveal they've been sharing a Netflix subscription? Get face tattoos of each other's names? Find some obscure workaround in the CBA that allows lifetime contracts?
There's a reason the Beal trade chatter, self-perpetuating as it may be, won't go away: Beal is a superstar in his prime, and the Wizards stink. Generally, situations like this resolve themselves with a trade. Often, it's the player that agitates for action.
We can't condemn Beal for his loyalty—not when we pile onto stars like James Harden, Anthony Davis, Paul George et al. for employing varying degrees of force to get themselves moved.
The Wizards, though? Yeah, we can get a little tougher on them.
Washington is several pieces away from having the foundation of a long-term winner. Other than Deni Avdija, who might only be an exception because he hasn't played enough to reveal he's something less than a cornerstone, the Wizards' cupboards are bare. A Beal trade could re-stock them.
Come on, Wizards. Put in a call to the New Orleans Pelicans. B/R's Jake Fischer reports their interest in Beal is "one of the biggest open secrets around the league." New Orleans could flip all the picks it got from the Milwaukee Bucks for Jrue Holiday, add a couple of young players and matching salaries and, bam, Washington's rebuild could begin with real assets.
Or why not see if the Golden State Warriors would part with James Wiseman and that 2021 first-rounder from the Minnesota Timberwolves?
As has been the case all year, the Wizards currently don't have interest in a Beal trade. This is just to say, simply, that they should.
Verdict: Trade
Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets
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If Bradley Beal ever becomes available, the Denver Nuggets should think long and hard about building a package around Michael Porter Jr.
But under no other circumstances should MPJ depart Denver.
Based on the way the Nuggets have long advertised Porter's untouchability and quickly shut down inquiries about him, it's hard to argue he's truly "available." But Denver appears to be a piece away from joining the league's top tier of contenders, and Porter is always the first name mentioned when constructing deals to land the Nuggets a ceiling-raising star.
He, like Beal, won't escape the rumor mill any time soon.
Denver must be prepared to stand fast. Porter is a singular scoring talent who could easily become the put-you-over piece the Nuggets need as soon as, say, this April. Maybe that sounds ambitious, but MPJ's game is undeniable. Capable of creating his own shot and boasting an innate knack for piling up easy points on the offensive boards, Porter's size and high release also make him an ideal catch-and-shoot weapon.
Among players 6'10" or taller who have attempted at least 200 treys over the last two seasons, no one has been more accurate from long range.
Defensive attention and effort remain issues, but Porter is 22 and has all the physical tools to be a versatile contributor on that end. He's going to get better on D, and when that happens, he'll profile as at least the second-best player on a title threat. Better yet, he could attain that status while still on his rookie deal.
That's the kind of talent smart teams should cling to at (almost) any cost.
Verdict: Keep
Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls
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SNY's Ian Begley reported that the New York Knicks are "keeping an eye" on Zach LaVine. According to Marc Berman of the New York Post, the 25-year-old shooting guard is on the Knicks' radar.
However you frame it, we've got enough here to probe the idea of a LaVine trade.
The Knicks' side of this is tricky. They have significant financial wiggle room, which could allow them to bring in LaVine's $19.5 million salary without sending much money back to the Chicago Bulls. Whether LaVine is worth significant draft assets (New York has five first-rounders spread across the next three drafts) is an open question. He's averaging a career-high 26.6 points per game and is a couple of missed foul shots short of a 50-40-90 clip, but Chicago's net rating is a whopping 13.3 points per 100 possessions worse with LaVine on the court.
In fact, LaVine's on-off differential has been negative in six of his seven NBA seasons.
The same evidence that should usher New York away from a LaVine deal screams for the Bulls to pull the trigger.
LaVine's salary is manageable, and he'll make an identical $19.5 million in 2021-22 before hitting free agency that summer. He's not a cap-crippler. But it's abundantly clear that his game isn't helping the Bulls play better basketball, and because his scoring prowess practically demands a high-usage role, he's effectively a human ceiling on Chicago's potential.
A low ceiling, to be clear.
The Bulls are treading toward a pivotal decision-making period with Lauri Markkanen headed for restricted free agency and several veterans holding partial guarantees on their 2021-22 salaries. LaVine doesn't profile as a keeper—especially if he commands a raise on his next deal—so it would behoove the Bulls to make a move sooner than later.
It doesn't have to be the Knicks, but Chicago should be trying to find out who else has LaVine in their sights.
Verdict: Trade
Victor Oladipo, Houston Rockets
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The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor reported Victor Oladipo didn't want to stick around in Houston shortly after the two-time All-Star landed there as part of the James Harden trade, but subsequent chatter (and Oladipo's own words) cut the other way.
Alykhan Bijani of The Athletic reported there was "confidence among coaches and those in the organization that Oladipo could be a long-term fit with the franchise."
Consider the incentives here. Oladipo surely doesn't want to deal with reports of his unhappiness in Houston after having to shout down similar ones in Indiana, and the Rockets would be foolish to invite low-ball offers by broadcasting an intent to quickly move on from the headliner (draft picks excluded) of the return they got for Harden.
Both team and player should be advertising satisfaction and optimism.
In the end, it shouldn't matter whether Oladipo sincerely intends to make a long-term go of it with the Rockets. Houston has to be practical.
If it keeps Oladipo for the duration of this season, it'll head into the summer with two options: re-sign him in unrestricted free agency at a rate that beats the market, or let him walk for free.
The Rockets should be terrified by that first choice, as Oladipo has failed to prove he's the same player he was prior to rupturing his quad in January 2019. He's still a 20-point scorer who can pile up assists as a secondary creator, but he isn't the two-way star who deserved All-NBA honors in 2017-18. Someone will be open to paying him as if he's still the 25-year-old pre-injury version of himself, and it shouldn't be Houston.
The second option might appeal to a Rockets franchise focused on frugality, but it's always a bad look to lose talent for nothing.
Ideally, Houston could flip Oladipo for matching expiring contracts with a first-rounder attached. That might not seem like a great return, but it sure beats the alternatives.
Verdict: Trade
Blake Griffin, Detroit Pistons
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Last time we checked in on Blake Griffin, a costly vet on a go-nowhere Detroit Pistons team who absolutely should be available, the six-time All-Star wasn't playing nearly well enough to justify trading.
Detroit couldn't have moved him without attaching significant draft capital and taking back somebody's unwanted salary. That's not exactly the best scenario for a rebuilding team.
In bad news for the Pistons, nothing has changed.
Griffin is averaging 12.4 points and 5.6 rebounds while shooting 37.1 percent from the floor. He's getting to the rim less frequently than ever. One of the greatest finishers of all time now attempts over half of his shots from beyond the three-point arc.
Cleverness is a plus, and Griffin's passing eye remains keen. But his athleticism is just...gone.
At this point, all Detroit can do is hope that as Griffin gets further removed from his last surgery and draws closer to the end of his contract ($36.8 million this year and a $39.0 million player option in 2021-22), the price to offload him will decline.
Trading him now would set the Pistons back in ways they can't afford. Right now, this is a ride-it-out situation.
Verdict: Keep
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Basketball Insiders.
