College Football Picks Week 15: Vegas Odds and Predictions for Top 25 Games
The Cincinnati Bearcats and Tulsa Golden Hurricane find themselves in unique spots entering Week 15 of the college football season.
The two sides are scheduled to face off Saturday afternoon in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and will turn around the following week to contest the American Athletic Conference Championship Game.
Although the situation is less than ideal for both sides, Saturday's matchup has to be taken seriously by Cincinnati, who could land in the College Football Playoff. The Bearcats are in line for a New Year's Six bowl as the best Group of Five team, but beating a team twice in two weeks to remain undefeated will be a tough task.
If Cincinnati navigates its next two games undefeated, it could face the Miami Hurricanes in a New Year's Six bowl. Miami is the third-best team in the ACC, and for it to land a spot in one of the most prestigious bowl games, it needs to beat the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Saturday's clash at Hard Rock Stadium may be the most entertaining contest of gameweek, with Sam Howell and D'Eriq King dueling against average defenses.
Week 15 Schedule and Odds
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Friday, December 11
Utah at No. 21 Colorado (-3.5) (9:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
Saturday, December 12
No. 1 Alabama at Arkansas (Noon, ESPN) (N/A)
Michigan at No. 3 Ohio State (-30.5) (Noon, Fox)
No. 12 Georgia at Missouri (Noon, SEC Network) (N/A)
No. 13 Oklahoma (-11.5) at West Virginia (Noon, ABC)
Illinois at No. 15 Northwestern (-13.5) (Noon, ESPN2)
Akron at No. 24 Buffalo (-32.5) (2:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network)
No. 11 Coastal Carolina (-13.5) at Troy (3 p.m., ESPN+)
Purdue at No. 8 Indiana (-11.5) (3:30 p.m., BTN)
No. 20 North Carolina at No. 9 Miami (-3.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC)
No. 25 Wisconsin at No. 19 Iowa (-2.5) (3:30 p.m., FS1)
No. 23 Texas (-29.5) at Kansas (3:30 p.m., ESPNU)
No. 7 Cincinnati (-12.5) at No. 18 Tulsa (4 p.m., ESPN2)
LSU at No. 6 Florida (-23.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
No. 16 USC (-3.5) at UCLA (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Ole Miss at No. 5 Texas A&M (-14.5) (8 p.m., CBS)
San Diego State at No. 14 BYU (-14.5) (10 p.m., ESPN2)
Predictions against the spread in bold. All Times ET. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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No. 7 Cincinnati at No. 18 Tulsa (+12.5)
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Usually when two teams play in back-to-back weeks with the conference championship being the second of the two games, the first game would be ignored or played at a slower pace.
That can't happen Saturday afternoon since Cincinnati is still fighting for a CFP berth and the winner hosts the AAC Championship Game.
The Bearcats are more than capable of winning, but they may not cover the spread against a stingy Golden Hurricane team that is coming off a 19-6 win over the Navy Midshipmen.
Tulsa held Navy to 153 total yards and did not allow its triple-option offense to find any type of rhythm in Week 14. Quarterback Zach Smith returned from injury to throw for 168 yards and a touchdown. He has six scoring throws and two interceptions in two Top 25 matchups in conference play.
The Golden Hurricane held the SMU Mustangs and UCF Golden Knights below 30 points each, which is a major accomplishment given how explosive both offenses can be. If Tulsa contains Desmond Ridder's playmaking ability, it could keep its first matchup with Cincinnati within single digits.
Cincinnati has not played since November 21, when it won by three over UCF on the road. A similar fate could await it on Saturday following the three-week layoff.
If the Golden Hurricane limit Ridder's production and contain Gerrid Doaks, who is averaging 4.8 yards per carry, they would give themselves a shot to win. However, Cincinnati proved in its win over UCF that it can grind out results against some of the best teams in AAC, and it may have to do that twice in two weeks to secure a New Year's Six berth.
The Bearcats could get into the College Football Playoff if they remain undefeated and at least two teams in front of them lose. The easiest path would be for the Florida Gators and Clemson Tigers to lose their respective conference championship games and then have the argument come down to Cincinnati and the Texas A&M Aggies.
No. 20 North Carolina at No. 9 Miami (-3.5)
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The main reason why North Carolina is not higher up in the ACC standings and Top 25 rankings is its defense.
The Tar Heels gave up 478 total yards to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and allowed 53 points to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the game prior to that.
North Carolina could be in a world of hurt against King, who is one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the FBS. The transfer from Houston ran rampant through the Duke Blue Devils defense Saturday, as he threw for three touchdowns and ran for another.
King has 2,334 passing yards, 467 rushing yards and 24 total touchdowns. He could pad those totals if North Carolina does not correct its defensive issues.
The Tar Heels are coming off a 49-9 win over FCS side Western Carolina in Week 14, so there is not much we can take from that performance and apply toward the Miami matchup. If Sam Howell can pick apart the Miami secondary and running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams vibe well off each other, the Tar Heels could remain within one score for most of the contest.
Miami enters Saturday's ACC clash with more experience playing in one-score games. It won three straight contests of that variety versus the Virginia Cavaliers, NC State Wolfpack and Virginia Tech Hokies earlier in the season.
There should be more confidence in Miami's defense getting stops late in the game, which is why it should be taken as the slight favorite.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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