College Football Playoff Projections: Week 10 Rankings and Bowl Forecast
There were four significant upsets in Week 9 that shook up the latest bowl projections and AP Top 25 rankings. Oklahoma State lost to Texas. North Carolina lost to Virginia. Kansas State got pummeled by West Virginia. And Michigan shockingly lost to Michigan State.
Oklahoma State's defeat not only dropped the Cowboys from No. 6 to No. 14, but it also brought Texas back into the poll at No. 22. North Carolina and Kansas State dropped out of the rankings from Nos. 15 and 16, respectively. And Michigan fell 10 spots to No. 23.
In the middle of that madness, BYU sneaked into the Top 10 at No. 9, Coastal Carolina and Marshall became the new Nos. 15 and 16, and Liberty made its program debut in the AP poll at No. 25.
Where do those poll movers find themselves in our latest bowl projections?
One more note before we dive in: While there is no wins requirement for bowl eligibility this year, I'm instituting a personal rule that teams with at least two games played and a winning percentage below .300 will not be included.
I did decide to make an exception for 0-2 Penn State since the Nittany Lions are probably going to win at least four of their remaining six games. But if they lose to Maryland this week, they're getting kicked to the curb so hard.
Bowls are broken into six tiers in ascending order of magnitude.
Group of Five Bowls
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Frisco (Dec. 19): UTSA (4-4) vs. Wyoming (1-1)
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 21): Georgia Southern (4-2) vs. Liberty* (6-0)
Boca Raton (Dec. 22): Florida Atlantic (2-1) vs. Tulane (3-4)
Famous Idaho Potato (Dec. 22): Central Michigan (1-0) vs. San Jose State (2-0)
New Orleans (Dec. 23): Coastal Carolina (6-0) vs. Marshall (5-0)
New Mexico (Dec. 24): Nevada (2-0) vs. UAB (4-3)
Camellia (Dec. 25): Louisiana (5-1) vs. Miami-OH (1-0)
Cure (Dec. 26): Buffalo (1-0) vs. Troy (4-2)
LendingTree (Dec. 26): Appalachian State (4-1) vs. Ohio (0-1)
Arizona (Dec. 31): San Diego State (2-0) vs. Toledo (1-0)
Armed Forces (Dec. 31): Louisiana Tech (4-3) vs. Navy (3-4)
*Liberty takes an AAC/MAC spot in the Myrtle Beach Bowl
Welcome back, Wednesday night MACtion. We missed you dearly.
On Saturday, we'll find out if Coastal Carolina, Liberty and Marshall can keep their dreams of an undefeated season alive and remain in the AP Top 25 for at least one more week.
Marshall (vs. Massachusetts) is just about guaranteed to win. Coastal Carolina (vs. South Alabama) is favored by two touchdowns one week after its 51-0 annihilation of Georgia State. And Liberty (at Virginia Tech) is a huge underdog, but that's mostly because the Flames have yet to face a single opponent worth a darn. They have enough offensive firepower to potentially shock the Hokies, though I'm not expecting that to happen.
One other intriguing game with potentially big ramifications for bowl season is Troy at Georgia Southern.
Both are projected for bowl games, but the Sun Belt only has contractual ties to five bowls. And Coastal Carolina, Louisiana and Appalachian State are in better standing than either of these two. The winner will just about lock up a bowl spot, while the loser could be in some trouble.
And considering Troy has done the best job (among Sun Belt teams) of shutting down Georgia Southern's triple-option attack in each of the past two seasons, the Trojans should have the upper hand.
Power Five vs. Group of Five Bowls
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Montgomery (Dec. 23): Tulsa (3-1) vs. Virginia (2-4)
First Responder (Dec. 26): Houston (2-2) vs. TCU (2-3)
Gasparilla (Dec. 26): Florida State (2-4) vs. UCF (4-2)
Independence (Dec. 26): Army (6-1) vs. Washington (0-0)
Military (Dec. 28): SMU (6-1) vs. Pittsburgh (3-4)
Los Angeles (Dec. 30): Boise State (2-0) vs. California (0-0)
Birmingham (Jan. 1): Ole Miss (2-4) vs. Memphis (3-2)
Every year, there's one pairing in a lower-tier bowl that happens to fall into place in early-to-mid November, and it immediately becomes the one bowl game I desperately want to see happen.
Last year, that pairing was Air Force vs. Washington State, and we actually got it in the Cheez-It Bowl.
This year, it's Ole Miss vs. Memphis.
Not only is there a lot of history between those two programs (48 meetings in the past 60 years), but these also are two of the best offenses and two of the worse defenses in the nation this season. Both teams are averaging better than 500 yards per game on offense and allowing more than 500 yards per game on defense.
Ole Miss vs. Memphis could be a repeat of the 2011 Alamo Bowl, in which Baylor defeated Washington 67-56.
The other potentially awesome game in this tier is the Gasparilla Bowl between Florida State and UCF, if only because it would be nice to finally get UCF on the field against one of Florida, Florida State or Miami. It has been more than a decade since one of those three matchups took place, and it would be a treat to watch quarterback Dillon Gabriel light up the Seminoles secondary.
Power Five Bowls That Could Be Fun
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Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26): Indiana (2-0) vs. Kansas State (4-2)
Cheez-It (Dec. 29): Texas (4-2) vs. Wake Forest (4-2)
Pinstripe (Dec. 29): Boston College (4-3) vs. Northwestern (2-0)
Duke's Mayo (Dec. 30): NC State (4-2) vs. Penn State (0-2)
Music City (Dec. 30): Kentucky (2-4) vs. Purdue (2-0)
Liberty (Dec. 31): Iowa State (4-2) vs. Missouri (2-3)
Sun (Dec. 31): Arizona State (0-0) vs. North Carolina (4-2)
Texas (Dec. 31): South Carolina (2-3) vs. West Virginia (4-2)
It's clear that the Big 12 doesn't have any elite teams. I mean, that was clear a month ago, but you can't even point to Oklahoma State as a potential outlier anymore now that it suffered its first loss of the season.
But what the Big 12 does have is a whole bunch of kind-of-good teams.
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia are all 4-2, and each landed between Nos. 17-34 in this week's AP poll. Now that Oklahoma is back to full strength with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ronnie Perkins finally allowed to play after serving six-game suspensions dating back to last season, the Sooners will probably emerge as the best team in that group.
But who knows? The only head-to-head matchup within those five teams in the next two weeks is the West Virginia at Texas game this Saturday. Perhaps that will help sort out the pecking order.
Aside from the "lack of elite teams" part, the ACC is in a similar boat, with Boston College, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest each owning four wins.
I'm starting to believe Wake Forest is the fourth-best team in the conference behind Clemson, Notre Dame and Miami. This is astounding since the Demon Deacons are playing without their starting quarterback, their top rusher, their top three wide receivers and their two best defensive backs from last season. Dave Clawson is going to get a bunch of votes for ACC Coach of the Year at this rate.
Wake Forest is idle this week, but it has home games remaining against Miami (Nov. 28) and Notre Dame (Dec. 12). It's highly unlikely the Demon Deacons will play in the ACC championship, but they could have a say in who does.
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Top Non-New Year's Six Bowls
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Alamo (Dec. 29): Oklahoma (4-2) vs. USC (0-0)
Citrus (Jan. 1): Auburn (4-2) vs. Michigan (1-1)
Gator (Jan. 2): LSU (2-3) vs. Virginia Tech (4-2)
Outback (Jan. 2): Tennessee (2-3) vs. Wisconsin (1-0)
Las Vegas (Date TBD): Arkansas (2-3) vs. Utah (0-0)
Three of these games (Alamo, Outback and Las Vegas) have the exact same projected pairing as they did one week ago. But that makes sense, since four of the six teams didn't play in Week 9, and the two that did play—Oklahoma's win over Texas Tech, Arkansas' competitive loss at Texas A&M—had results that were to be expected.
Neither Auburn nor LSU plays this week, though the Alabama-based Tigers are in much better shape than the Louisiana-based Tigers following that 48-11 beatdown. Oklahoma has a home game against Kansas. Virginia Tech should win its home game against Liberty. Safe to assume those four teams will be right back here next week.
The winner of the head-to-head matchup between Arkansas and Tennessee will also remain here. Even the loser of that game will probably stay on this tier unless the Florida-Georgia loser drops down from the New Year's Six tier to inherit one of the SEC's four spots here.
The main position up for grabs in Week 10 is the Big Ten's bid to the Citrus Bowl, as 1-1 Michigan travels to 2-0 Indiana for one of the biggest games of the weekend.
If the Wolverines bounce back from their embarrassing loss to Michigan State to win, perhaps there will be no change here. But if the Hoosiers remain undefeated, they would at least move up to this tier, possibly leapfrogging it straight into the New Year's Six—especially if BYU loses to Boise State and opens up a spot.
That wouldn't necessarily mean Michigan remains projected for the Citrus Bowl, though. Northwestern could move up with a win over Nebraska. So could 2-0 Purdue with the game against Wisconsin canceled because of the Badgers' COVID-19 outbreak.
Non-CFP New Year's Six Bowls
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Cotton (Dec. 30): Florida (3-1) vs. Cincinnati (5-0)
Peach (Jan. 1): Georgia (4-1) vs. BYU (7-0)
Fiesta (Jan. 2): Oregon (0-0) vs. Oklahoma State (4-1)
Orange (Jan. 2): Miami (5-1) vs. Texas A&M (4-1)
Those with a keen eye might have already noticed, but there's no Big Ten team in this tier. Penn State started out in this group before quickly vanishing. Michigan replaced Penn State one week ago and then immediately lost to Michigan State. Wisconsin—if it ever plays again—has an argument to be included, but who gets the ax to make room for the Badgers?
Every Power Five conference is required to be represented somewhere in the New Year's Six, so we have to include AP No. 12 Oregon and No. 14 Oklahoma State. There also needs to be an ACC team in the Orange Bowl, which explains Miami. Cincinnati is the Group of Five's mandatory representative—and is more deserving than Wisconsin anyway.
Georgia, Texas A&M and Florida are all ranked in the AP Top Eight and are projected to finish the season either 9-1 or 8-2. And BYU is projected to go undefeated.
That makes it more than a little difficult to find room for Wisconsin or Indiana.
Eventually, that will probably change, as the Big Ten has sent an average of 2.83 teams (at least two each year) to the New Year's Six since it became a thing six seasons ago. But a topsy-turvy first two weeks has left Indiana, Northwestern and Purdue with 2-0 records and has made it difficult to believe anyone in that conference is elite, aside from Ohio State, of course.
Two huge games this week that could force a change are Florida vs. Georgia and BYU at Boise State.
If the SEC game gets out of hand, that might be grounds for dropping the loser off this tier and making room for a second Big Ten team, probably in the Cotton Bowl. Alternatively, if BYU were to lose to the Broncos, the Cougars would no longer have a case for one of these marquee bowls.
If both of those things happen, perhaps both Wisconsin and Indiana will join the club. At any rate, the next-highest ranked teams are Coastal Carolina and Marshall, and two Group of Five teams in the New Year's Six might be a stretch.
College Football Playoff
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Jan. 1
Rose: No. 2 Ohio State (2-0) vs. No. 3 Clemson (7-0)
Sugar: No. 1 Alabama (6-0) vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (6-0)
Jan. 11
National Championship: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Clemson
After six consecutive weeks of Notre Dame being ranked in the AP Top Five, I'm finally caving and putting the Irish in the projected College Football Playoff field as the No. 4 seed.
And with that move, I'd like to extend an apology to all the Fighting Irish fans among the readership, because I have had the kiss of death this season.
After Oklahoma lost to Kansas State in late September, I begrudgingly promoted Texas to the No. 4 seed. The Longhorns promptly lost to TCU. Heading into Week 7, I had Georgia as the No. 4 seed, and the Bulldogs lost to Alabama. Last week, I bumped Oklahoma State up to No. 4, just in time for the Cowboys to lose to Texas.
Perhaps Notre Dame will be the team to break the cycle and finally win a game while I have it projected as the No. 4 seed. Vegas doesn't think so, as the Fighting Irish are underdogs at home against Clemson, even though the Tigers will be without Trevor Lawrence.
I think they'll win this regular-season matchup, though, and then lose in the ACC championship against the full-strength Tigers. In that scenario—perhaps foolishly assuming there are no wild upsets between now and then—both teams would finish 11-1, with Clemson holding the de facto tiebreaker of a conference championship. That gives us the above projection with Clemson at No. 3 and Notre Dame at No. 4.
But if Cincinnati is able to run the table, the Bearcats are probably more deserving of that fourth seed. Whether the selection committee would actually be willing to give that spot to a Group of Five team is another story, but the case for the Bearcats is strong.
Because here's a fun fact: Notre Dame does not have a single win against a team with a .500 or better record. And now that North Carolina has dropped out of the AP Top 25, this game against less-than-full-strength Clemson will presumably be Notre Dame's only game against a ranked opponent.
Cincinnati has already demolished two ranked teams (Army and SMU) and has a third victory over a team with a winning record (Memphis). To go undefeated, it would eventually add noteworthy road wins over UCF and Tulsa, as well as a quality victory in the AAC championship.
The Florida-Georgia winner will also have a chance to finish in the Top Four. However, if 11-1 Notre Dame and 11-0 Cincinnati are on the board, that will probably only happen if that victor also wins each of its remaining games, including the SEC championship against Alabama. That's possible, but the odds are decidedly not great.
For the time being, though, Notre Dame edges out Cincinnati and Florida/Georgia. And, please, let's wait at least a couple of weeks before we entertain the idea of a 7-0 Pac-12 champion reaching the playoff. If Oregon and/or USC starts out 3-0, then we'll talk.
Bowl Games by Conference
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Here is the full breakdown of bowl projections listed alphabetically by conference. New Year's Six games have been italicized and underlined to help those of you who just scrolled to the bottom to find the marquee games.
American (8 teams): Cincinnati (Cotton Bowl), Houston (First Responder Bowl), Memphis (Birmingham Bowl), Navy (Armed Forces Bowl), SMU (Military Bowl), Tulane (Boca Raton Bowl), Tulsa (Montgomery Bowl), UCF (Gasparilla Bowl)
ACC (11 teams): Boston College (Pinstripe Bowl), Clemson (Rose Bowl), Florida State (Gasparilla Bowl), Miami (Orange Bowl), NC State (Duke's Mayo Bowl), North Carolina (Sun Bowl), Notre Dame (Sugar Bowl), Pittsburgh (Military Bowl), Virginia (Montgomery Bowl), Virginia Tech (Gator Bowl), Wake Forest (Cheez-It Bowl)
Big 12 (7 teams): Iowa State (Liberty Bowl), Kansas State (Guaranteed Rate Bowl), Oklahoma (Alamo Bowl), Oklahoma State (Fiesta Bowl), Texas (Cheez-It Bowl), Texas Tech (First Responder Bowl), West Virginia (Texas Bowl)
Big Ten (7 teams): Indiana (Guaranteed Rate Bowl), Michigan (Citrus Bowl), Northwestern (Pinstripe Bowl), Ohio State (Rose Bowl), Penn State (Duke's Mayo Bowl), Purdue (Music City Bowl), Wisconsin (Outback Bowl)
Conference USA (5 teams): Florida Atlantic (Boca Raton Bowl), Louisiana Tech (Armed Forces Bowl), Marshall (New Orleans Bowl), UAB (New Mexico Bowl), UTSA (Frisco Bowl)
Independents (3 teams): Army (Independence Bowl), BYU (Peach Bowl), Liberty (Myrtle Beach Bowl)
Mid-American (5 teams): Buffalo (Cure Bowl), Central Michigan (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl), Miami-Ohio (Camellia Bowl), Ohio (LendingTree Bowl), Toledo (Arizona Bowl)
Mountain West (5 teams): Boise State (Los Angeles Bowl), Nevada (New Mexico Bowl), San Diego State (Arizona Bowl), San Jose State (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl), Wyoming (Frisco Bowl)
Pac-12 (6 teams): Arizona State (Sun Bowl), California (Los Angeles Bowl), Oregon (Fiesta Bowl), USC (Alamo Bowl), Utah (Las Vegas Bowl), Washington (Independence Bowl)
SEC (12 teams): Alabama (Sugar Bowl), Arkansas (Las Vegas Bowl), Auburn (Citrus Bowl), Florida (Cotton Bowl), Georgia (Peach Bowl), Kentucky (Music City Bowl), LSU (Gator Bowl), Missouri (Liberty Bowl), Ole Miss (Birmingham Bowl), South Carolina (Texas Bowl), Tennessee (Outback Bowl), Texas A&M (Orange Bowl)
Sun Belt (5 teams): Appalachian State (LendingTree Bowl), Coastal Carolina (New Orleans Bowl), Georgia Southern (Myrtle Beach Bowl), Louisiana (Camellia Bowl), Troy (Cure Bowl)
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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