Ranking the 8 NBA Teams That Will Be Most Active This Offseason
With the NBA on hiatus, there's no telling when the offseason will begin. But we can still speculate about it.
It's likely the coronavirus pandemic will impact salary-cap figures, though to what degree is still in question. However, the same players who were going to be free agents will still be eligible whenever the offseason arrives, and the same players who were on the trading block likely remain so as well.
Though a dearth of top-tier free agents and a general lack of cap space may lead to a relatively uneventful offseason, don't be surprised if a few high-powered clubs make it exciting once again.
Today, we're ranking the eight teams most likely to make big splashes this offseason. They were ranked by a combination of available cap space, competitive standing and roster configuration.
Let's dig in.
8. Charlotte Hornets
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After losing Kemba Walker, the Charlotte Hornets are obviously in a transitional period.
This year has seen a potential young core arise in Devonte' Graham, Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington, but those four alone will not lead the Hornets anywhere. Charlotte needs to make some kind of splashy acquisition.
Charlotte's last big splash, Nicolas Batum, is a free agent this year but has a player option for $27.1 million, so he will likely stick around for one more season. However, Batum's presumed re-signing still leaves the Hornets with nearly $30 million in cap space, and the team needs another big man to either build around for the future or push Charlotte's young cohort in the right direction.
Cody Zeller is a perfectly fine stopgap option at the 5, but he's 27 and unspectacular, and the team's other major free agents are Bismack Biyombo and Willy Hernangomez (their other two centers).
Of course, the Hornets being the Hornets, splashy is a relative term. In terms of available big men, they likely won't be able to snap up somebody like Andre Drummond or Marc Gasol, and trading for a 2021 free agent like Rudy Gobert is improbable at best.
However, an unheralded veteran like Aron Baynes, Mason Plumlee or Nerlens Noel could provide the basic big man skill set, along with big-game experience, to help mold Charlotte's young players and build the franchise's next playoff contender.
7. Boston Celtics
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The Boston Celtics have made the playoffs in 11 of the last 12 seasons. They've won 50 or games six times this century, boast one of the best coaches in the NBA and have three (maybe even four) All-Star-caliber players. You may not think the Celtics need to do anything this summer, but that's never stopped Danny Ainge before.
Boston has been among the most active teams in three of the last four offseasons, signing Al Horford in 2016, bringing in Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving in 2017, and switching Horford and Irving with Kemba Walker last summer. Ainge and company could have sat idly by in the summer of 2017, waiting for Isaiah Thomas to recover from a hip injury that continues to affect his NBA career, but they didn't, and that's why the Celtics remain a deadly opponent.
So what is there for Boston to do this offseason? At first glance, not a lot. Their obvious positional need is center, and they've been linked to players like Tristan Thompson. But Thompson may not be as sure a bet to leave Cleveland as it once seemed, which could leave the Celtics in a holding pattern.
Now, stasis is not inherently bad. In fact, in the age of constant rumors and player movement, it's probably a great advantage. But Ainge has conjured trades out of thin air numerous times before. Don't be surprised if he does it again.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers
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The Cleveland Cavaliers' roster is a mess.
They start two ball-dominant young guards in Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, have clogged the frontcourt with non-shooting Andre Drummond and Tristan Thompson, and don't have a competent lead playmaker to make sense of all that. How do they proceed in this rebuild?
While Sexton and Garland have a combined three seasons of NBA experience and should get at least one more year to continue developing chemistry, the frontcourt may naturally open up. Thompson is on an expiring contract, while Drummond has a player option this offseason and will be an unrestricted free agent in 2021.
However, it's not clear which one (if either) will leave. Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com speculates that Drummond will opt into his last year and Thompson will agree to a sign-and-trade to a contender, but what if Thompson, hungry to climb the team's all-time rankings, re-signs on a team-friendly deal? Will the Cavs be able to regroup and try to address their horrid wing depth?
Teams have succeeded in the modern NBA with the roster redundancies that Cleveland claims. The Trail Blazers have been a recent contender thanks to a two-headed monster at the guard position, while the 2019-20 Miami Heat pleasantly surprised even though several of their most important players are poor shooters. But both of those clubs have excellent coaches and far more talent than the Cavaliers.
For Cleveland to move further along in its slow rebuild, something drastic must happen this offseason.
5. Atlanta Hawks
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Though currently on track for the fourth overall pick, the Atlanta Hawks have a lot to look forward to.
Trae Young has emerged as one of the NBA's best guards, and the rest of the team has risen alongside him. John Collins has continued his stellar play, Cam Reddish has put in a solid few months after a horrid start and Kevin Huerter remains an essential shooter. That fails to mention 2019 lottery pick De'Andre Hunter and trade acquisition Clint Capela, who's yet to play for the Hawks.
The cupboard looked bare around Young for much of last season and the beginning of this one, but Atlanta is now bursting with potential.
The fact that six players were just named suggests a trade should be in the offing for Atlanta. Young and Collins are untouchable, and it's unlikely a player of Capela's magnitude would be traded without playing a single game. A combination of Huerter, Hunter and Reddish along with a pick or two will have to be the package, which could surely be enticing to any number of teams.
Imagine trading Hunter and Huerter to Orlando for Terrence Ross or to Denver for Will Barton this summer. Neither is a sexy move, but for a team with a 21-year old franchise guard, these marginal transactions make all the difference. If the Hawks make one this offseason, consider them postseason-ready.
4. Philadelphia 76ers
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Though management probably won't say it until it absolutely has to, the Sixers are nearing a crisis point.
Before the hiatus, the Sixers had lost five of their last nine games, and all the grumbling that several of their stars have been doing once again seemed fair. This team is arguably the most talented in its conference, so losing to two top-five lottery teams in the Cavaliers and Warriors in a two-week stretch is alarming.
Even more damning is the fact that if the NBA decided to forgo the rest of the regular season and begin the playoffs, Philly would play the Celtics in the first round. They owned the Sixers in their fourth and final matchup of the regular season.
That said, the team's vaunted starting five could make a run. Ben Simmons could get healthy by the time the season resumes, the team might click into place and they could make the Finals. That's not likely, given Philly's prior inconsistencies, but it's possible considering the personnel.
However, preseason expectations should still stand. The Sixers have lost in the second round two years running, and even for a team less talented, it's reasonable to expect a breakthrough by the third season.
If the Sixers don't make the conference finals, then general manager Elton Brand should seriously consider moving at least Simmons or Joel Embiid to continue following through on the years of Process-based sacrifice.
3. New York Knicks
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It's easy to bash the Knicks for their curious 2019 signings. But one smart thing they did last summer was make sure most of those contracts were short-term, giving them plenty of cap space over the next few years.
Only five players on New York's roster have contracts past 2021, and just RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson are worth keeping. There's both ample opportunity and reason for the Knicks to make some noise this offseason.
Where should New York start? Well, likely at the same place it's been starting for 40 years: at point guard. The Knicks are widely expected to take a LaMelo Ball or Cole Anthony-type playmaker in the draft, which will (at least temporarily) solve that issue.
However, new team president Leon Rose is likely itching to make his mark, so most of the incumbent players will likely go on the trading block.
There's a particularly cruel irony with this Knicks team: From Wayne Ellington to Reggie Bullock to Taj Gibson, numerous players could help contenders, but amount to nothing in chaotic New York. Other teams likely also know that, so the Knicks could get a decent return for those role players.
Whether or not Rose can negotiate skillfully enough in his new role to garner a reasonable price for his players is in question, but rest assured that he and his front office will be active this offseason.
2. Golden State Warriors
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With Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins each making over $20 million per year through the rest of their contracts, it doesn't seem like the Warriors have a lot of wiggle room to make other transactions. But don't be fooled. They're cooking something up.
From the moment Golden State traded for D'Angelo Russell last summer, it began playing with house money. Russell was not a good fit on paper or in reality, so the Warriors him to Minnesota for Wiggins, another poor fit. Wiggins is widely considered one of the most overpaid players in the league, and it seems bizarre that a team as forward-thinking as the Warriors would either not know that or ignore it.
Something else must be going on.
Golden State is four games ahead of the second-place Cavaliers for pole position in the lottery drawing, which gives it a 52 percent chance at a top-four pick. The most logical scenario, given the last 12 months of Warriors transactions, is that they will attempt to trade Wiggins, using their first-round pick as a sweetener (they appear to not be high on several of the top draft prospects anyway).
The next step is figuring out who Golden State might target. There aren't a lot of obvious options, but the Warriors are the Warriors for a reason. The move that seems unfathomable to us seems obvious to them.
Don't be shocked when they surprise again.
1. Brooklyn Nets
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This is what Nets GM Sean Marks signed up for by bringing in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
Just 12 months ago, Brooklyn had a fun young team. D'Angelo Russell had just become an All-Star, while Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen were blossoming into stars in their own right. Now, Russell is two teams removed from Brooklyn, DeAndre Jordan is taking away playing time from Allen, and Kenny Atkinson, widely considered one of the best developmental coaches in the NBA, is out.
The next step after finding a head coach? Presumably, it involves going after a third star. Irving made some cryptic comments about needing more help earlier this year, and he likely didn't forget Durant was injured.
The two megastars seemingly intend to make the Nets into a superteam, with players like Bradley Beal and CJ McCollum among the potential options.
It's impossible to forecast how Durant and Irving would behave if Marks either refuses to sacrifice years of asset management or can't find a reasonable trade for a third star, but those in the know believe he's been backed into a corner. If Brooklyn is celebrating a title in two years, then all of this criticism of Durant and Irving's methods is irrelevant. But if the team slowly fizzles out, its two stars become bored and they force a trade or leave at the end of their contracts, then the Nets will have sacrificed a genuinely wonderful comeback story for nothing.
Salary-cap data courtesy of Spotrac and Bleacher Report's Guide to 2020 Free-Agency Cap Space.
