5 NBA Teams Already Worrying About Their Offseason Pickups
Less than a month into the 2019-20 NBA season, it's way too early to panic. But after the most volatile summer of player movement in league history, a few teams might already be worried.
The Portland Trail Blazers' supporting cast swap was a head-scratcher at the time, and it remains so now. The Milwaukee Bucks' attempts to replace Malcolm Brogdon look like a whiff. The Sacramento Kings' troublesome additions might extend to the coaching staff. The New York Knicks still appear to be a mess. And while James Harden and Russell Westbrook have been productive individually, there's cause for concern about the pairing.
It takes time to sort out rotations, roles, shot distribution and more after a roster overhaul. Some of the teams discussed below eventually will be fine. But the teams are undoubtedly aware of these issues.
Here are some red flags to keep in mind for teams that made big changes over the offseason.
Not Worried... Yet
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Mike Conley is off to a borderline disastrous start with the Utah Jazz. He's averaging 12.4 points and 3.9 assists while shooting 31.8 percent from the field and 28.2 percent from three, and that includes a 29-point gem in which he only took 17 shots against the Los Angeles Clippers.
But Utah's co-headlining addition, Bojan Bogdanovic, has been stellar. He's averaging 20.2 points with a 64.5 true shooting percentage. The Jazz's net rating is 6.8 points better when he's on the floor.
At least for now, Conley's struggles and Bogdanovic's hot shooting may be a bit of a wash. And it's tough to believe Conley fell off a cliff skills-wise in one summer. It likely has more to do with his being in a system that puts the ball in the hands of wings more than he's used to.
Conley is also playing with a different kind of big than he had in his prime Memphis Grizzlies seasons. Rudy Gobert is a rim-running, lob-catching weapon, while Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph were far more ground-bound. Conley and Gobert eventually should figure out their chemistry.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls have stumbled out of the gate. But their foibles seem to have more to do with incumbents than Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young, both of whom have positive net rating swings.
We could point to a few other teams as well. Al-Farouq Aminu hasn't been a seamless fit with the Orlando Magic. The Oklahoma City Thunder may be a bit worse than expected, although they were always destined to regress after losing Russell Westbrook and Paul George this offseason.
The Brooklyn Nets avoid this distinction for now. The report from ESPN's Jackie MacMullan on Kyrie Irving's mood swings may have raised some eyebrows, and Brooklyn was below .500 heading into Tuesday, but going there feels too hot-takey for now. Individually, Irving has been brilliant thus far.
These teams may have an inkling of concern right now, but they shouldn't worry quite as much as the following five squads.
Portland Trail Blazers
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This offseason, the Portland Trail Blazers re-signed Rodney Hood, traded for Hassan Whiteside and Kent Bazemore, drafted Nassir Little and signed Mario Hezonja in free agency. Those five players have a combined 0.5 wins over replacement player (defined by Basketball Reference as value over replacement player times 2.7).
The key rotation players Portland lost this offseason—Evan Turner, Ed Davis, Moe Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu and Meyers Leonard—have combined for 1.4 wins over replacement player.
That's an overly reductive way to look at the comparison, but many of those decisions weren't easy to understand at the time.
Turner's playmaking was a nice source of relief for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Harkless and Aminu were highly switchable forwards. Leonard could stretch the floor from the 5.
Their various strengths complemented Lillard and McCollum. It's tougher to see that with the incoming supporting cast.
Whiteside is averaging 14.3 points and 12.0 rebounds in under 30 minutes per game and has a 68.1 true shooting percentage. But Portland is allowing more points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor than when he's off. And the downgrade in playmaking from Jusuf Nurkic to him is monumental. He doesn't facilitate at nearly the same level, which adds more of a burden on the guards.
Portland's way out may be flipping Whiteside for a wing or forward to make up for some of what it lost with the departures of Harkless and Aminu. But with Zach Collins out for at least four months with a shoulder injury, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic, such a move would likely have to wait until Nurkic is back on the floor.
Milwaukee Bucks
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This selection is as much about what the Milwaukee Bucks lost as it is about what they gained.
Malcolm Brogdon is averaging an eye-popping 22.5 points, 9.7 assists and 5.3 rebounds for the Indiana Pacers. Wesley Matthews, his replacement in Milwaukee, is averaging 7.9 points while shooting only 32.4 percent from three-point range.
His inconsistency might be a bigger problem than the actual numbers, as Brew Hoop's Frank Madden noted.
"Wes Matthews scored 14 points on 50 percent or better shooting in each of the Bucks' first 3 games (88 min), but is a combined 2/11 for 5 points in the last 3 games (59 min). Good reminder that he's much closer to a Tony Snell replacement than a Malcolm Brogdon replacement."
Brogdon would not be putting up his Indiana numbers in the role he played for the Bucks last season, but he'd command significantly more attention from opposing defenses than Matthews does.
Milwaukee's other notable additions, Robin Lopez and Kyle Korver, haven't been bad, but they also aren't the kind of floor-raisers Brogdon might have been. And against contenders like the Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Lakers or Los Angeles Clippers, the one-superstar Bucks need all of the firepower they can get.
Sacramento Kings
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After winning 39 games with a young core that included De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield, 2019-20 was a potential breakout season for the Sacramento Kings.
They've stabilized a bit, but the Kings looked flat-out bad during an 0-5 start with new head coach Luke Walton at the helm. And even after a few wins, their new additions are struggling mightily.
Trevor Ariza, Dewayne Dedmon and Cory Joseph were supposed to be the veteran presences to give the up-and-coming Kings the final push they needed to get back into the playoff picture. Instead, all three have played below replacement level by box plus/minus' standards.
There's plenty of time to turn things around, but a five-game losing streak at any point could spell doom for Sacramento's playoff chances in the West.
Meanwhile, Walton might actually be a bigger concern than the players, as Forbes' Sean Deveney explained:
"Just five games in and a chorus was building against Walton, whose team could do little right. They were 28th in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency. Where, under former coach Dave Joerger, they were defined by their commitment to pace last year (103.88 possessions per 48 minutes, third in the league), the Kings ranked 23rd at 101.5 this year.
"Walton and the Kings were booed at home in that fifth loss. Last Thursday, the Sacramento Bee ran a poll asking, 'Will Sacramento Kings coach Luke Walton get Fired?' Nearly 75 percent of respondents voted yes in some form..."
Fans can be reactionary. A few wins in a row and they could be all-in on Walton. But the excitement that emanated from last season's team is gone for now.
Houston Rockets
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We're still dealing with small samples, but the early returns on the Westbrook/Harden pairing suggest the adjustment period may last a bit longer than expected.
In the 131 minutes they've shared the floor, Harden is averaging 28.4 points, 6.5 assists and 3.4 rebounds per 75 possessions, with a 56.6 true shooting percentage. The team's net rating in those minutes is minus-5.9.
When Harden is on the floor without Westbrook, he's putting up 41.4 points, 7.4 assists and 6.5 rebounds per 75 possessions, with a 60.8 true shooting percentage. Houston's net rating in those 116 minutes is plus-8.4.
Things are humming along just fine when Westbrook isn't in the game. When forced to cede some control of the ball, both stars struggle a bit. And on the other end, things are a mess.
Houston is allowing 112.3 points per 100 possessions when both Westbrook and Harden are on the floor, compared to 103.1 when Harden is on without Russ.
Over the last few years, Harden has generally had a plus defender lining up next to him in the backcourt. First, it was Patrick Beverley. Then there was Chris Paul.
Westbrook is a monster on the defensive boards and occasionally jumps a passing lane, but lapses on that end have been the norm for years. Harden's prowess as a post defender has been overanalyzed at this point, but he isn't much better than Russ on the perimeter.
Having both out there puts a ton of pressure on the other three members of the lineup. The result is the alarming 113.6 points Houston allows per 100 possessions (28th in the NBA).
Figuring out how to share the ball and defend the perimeter was always going to be a challenge with these two, and there's still plenty of time to correct course. But these issues aren't going away without some significant adjustments.
New York Knicks
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The New York Knicks are now 1-6, and their most recent loss—a 21-point home blowout—came against the 2-5 Sacramento Kings.
The Knicks are bad. And the addition of, count them, four power forwards is going about as well as expected.
Of the bunch that includes Taj Gibson, Bobby Portis and Julius Randle, Marcus Morris Sr. has the best early-season box plus/minus. But he's still well below average.
It's likely safe to assume that Randle will eventually get back on track, but starting the season 38-of-91 from the field and 1-of-18 from three is less than ideal.
Other offseason additions such as Elfrid Payton and Wayne Ellington have been below average as well.
Among first-year Knicks, rookie RJ Barrett is the lone bright spot. Despite a troublesome 47.6 free-throw percentage, he's averaging a team-high 18.3 points while rebounding well and hitting threes. You can see hints of a playmaking wing there.
Barrett, Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robinson comprise an interesting young core, but the veteran supplements probably aren't long for the Big Apple.
