NBA Trades Fans Should Already Be Dreaming About
The 2019-20 NBA season is only one week old. You might think it's too early to be speculating about potential trades, but it isn't.
In this era, player movement is a constant thread running through the league's ongoing storylines.
Chris Paul may look good with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he clearly doesn't fit a rebuild. Kevin Love and Danilo Gallinari are the kind of veteran floor-spacing bigs that a number of teams should be interested in. Andre Iguodala's wing defense will be a topic of conversation among contenders' fanbases until he's traded. Bogdan Bogdanovic didn't come to terms on an extension with the Sacramento Kings, and with so much money already committed to Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes, could he be on his way out?
Those players and more will be fixtures in the rumor mill until February's trade deadline.
Here, we've come up with trade packages to find those players a new home.
Former Chicago Tribune writer turned NBC Sports Chicago insider, K.C. Johnson, joins The Full 48 with Howard Beck to discuss the Chicago Bulls playoff picture, Coby White, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, and Michael Jordan.
Chris Paul to the Heat
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Oklahoma City Thunder receive: Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters
Miami Heat receive: Chris Paul
After the Houston Rockets traded Chris Paul and draft considerations to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Russell Westbrook, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Paul may not be long for OKC.
"Houston hoped to find third-team destination preferable to Chris Paul, but ultimately leaves it OKC to execute next step once [Thunder general manager Sam] Presti confers w/ CP3 agent Leon Rose. Miami remains possibility for Paul (3 years, $124M)—and OKC obviously has picks to incentivize deal, if needed."
Nothing has materialized yet, but the idea of Paul being with the Thunder long term doesn't make sense. Their future is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the war chest of draft picks they acquired in the Westbrook and Paul George trades.
OKC might talk itself into keeping CP3 around for a bit to pass on some veteran wisdom to the youngsters, but it'll likely pounce on a deal that adds to that trove of assets or offloads the remaining three years and $124.1 million on Paul's contract for salary relief.
Would the Miami Heat ever get desperate enough to offer a first-rounder to OKC for Paul? Because of the Stepien Rule, they can't include a pick that would convey earlier than 2025.
But in this particular deal, they might not have to include one at all. As Woj noted, there's a chance OKC might even have to include sweeteners to move that contract.
Perhaps it becomes clear to the Thunder in a few months that no one is willing to forfeit a pick for Paul. At that point, the team may have to approach potential trades with cap relief as the primary motivation.
Paul is a short-term upgrade over Dragic, who isn't even starting at the 1 for Miami this season. Meanwhile, Waiters has been walking drama lately. He's rapidly approaching JR Smith/Carmelo Anthony territory, where his team effectively pays him not to show up.
While salary relief isn't as valuable for a team at the outset of a rebuild like OKC, the alternative may be having to attach picks to incentivize a team to take on Paul's deal. Not being forced into that situation is a win.
This one is mostly contingent on how good Miami is in a few months.
Bogdan Bogdanovic to the Hornets
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Charlotte Hornets receive: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Sacramento Kings receive: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Buddy Hield just signed a four-year contract extension worth up to $106 million. Harrison Barnes is in the first year of his four-year, $85 million deal. De'Aaron Fox is eligible to sign an extension next summer, and Marvin Bagley III will be in the summer of 2021.
When you put it all together, it's easy to see how Bogdan Bogdanovic might be the odd man out in Sacramento. The Athletic's John Hollinger explained what his lack of an extension might mean:
"The Kings tried and failed to lock up Bogdanovic, because they were limited to offering him $11 million as a starting salary in 2019-20 as part of an extension. It's not clear they can afford much beyond that anyway, with Bogdanovic's best position occupied by his nouveau riche teammate Hield. The Kings also face another large future commitment in the backcourt a year from now with Fox. Can they really pay Bogdanovic too?
"All signs point to a trade here as the best outcome for both sides, getting Bogdanovic into a situation where he can potentially start and (hopefully) enable the Kings to parlay him into a defensive wing with size."
Trading Bogdanovic for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist would fit the bill for a "defensive wing with size." And MKG's lack of scoring ability shouldn't be an issue with the Kings. Fox, Hield and Bagley all have the potential to average 20 (Hield already has), so a low-usage "does the dirty work" player would complement them well.
Despite a career scoring average of 8.8 points and a true shooting percentage of 52.6 (well below average), the Charlotte Hornets' net points per 100 possessions has been 4.8 points better with MKG on the floor. He could take on just about any defensive assignment for Sacramento and provide rebounding from the wing in smaller lineups that feature Bagley as a 5.
As for Charlotte, Bogdanovic doesn't quite fit a rebuilding team's timeline. He came over to the NBA a bit later than most rookies, so he's already 27. But that's the same age as Cody Zeller and only two years older than new Hornets point guard Terry Rozier.
Right now, the Hornets don't have a bona fide No. 1 option. Bogdanovic could be that.
Over the course of his career, he's averaged 19.5 points per 75 possessions when playing without Fox and Hield, albeit on below-average true shooting. And he looked every bit like a primary scorer for Serbia during the 2019 FIBA World Cup.
A lineup of Rozier, Bogdanovic, Miles Bridges, Marvin Williams and Zeller won't compete for a title, but it's more balanced than what Charlotte currently has in place and would have potential for improvement over the next few years.
Danilo Gallinari to the Blazers
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Portland Trail Blazers receive: Danilo Gallinari
Oklahoma City Thunder receive: Kent Bazemore, 2020 first-round pick
Other than Anthony Tolliver, the Portland Trail Blazers don't have a typical power forward. Zach Collins should be a 5. Rodney Hood and Mario Hezonja are 3s who are closer to 2s than 4s.
They need a more natural fit at that position, such as Danilo Gallinari.
A lineup featuring Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Hood and Gallo would get lit up defensively. But that group would also pour in points.
We don't need to extol the virtues of Lillard and McCollum's offense, but Gallinari is historically underrated on that end.
Here's the entire list of players with at least 1,000 career three-point attempts who match Gallo's points per 75 possessions (19.1) and true shooting percentage (58.9): Charles Barkley, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Reggie Miller, Chris Mullin and Karl-Anthony Towns.
He's top 100 all time in career offensive box plus/minus, too.
Gallinari can hit threes, draw fouls and attack a closeout. He generally eschews the mid-range. He's every bit the modern 4, at least on offense. But even if Gallo would make Portland worse defensively, that top three on offense would still outscore plenty of opponents.
Trading Gallinari for Kent Bazemore would make the Thunder worse this year, which would improve their draft-lottery odds. And they would add yet another first-rounder to their already absurd stockpile of future picks.
Andre Iguodala to the Nuggets
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Denver Nuggets receive: Andre Iguodala
Memphis Grizzlies receive: Mason Plumlee, 2022 first-round pick
The Memphis Grizzlies aren't in a hurry to get rid of Andre Iguodala, who they acquired this offseason from the Golden State Warriors. "There is a mutual understanding, per sources, that the situation may not reach a resolution until well into the season," according to Chris Herrington of the Daily Memphian.
In July, Marc Stein of the New York Times noted that one of Iggy's former teams would welcome a reunion.
"The [Denver] Nuggets expect to introduce the promising Michael Porter Jr. this season after winning the West’s regular-season title—and are said to be interested in making an ambitious play to bring Iguodala back to Denver if Iguodala can extricate himself from Memphis."
Denver has the kind of depth and salary-matching assets to pull off a trade. Most of the speculation regarding Iguodala and the Nuggets has centered on Will Barton, but let's get a little weirder (while still making sense).
Iguodala for Mason Plumlee and a future first-round pick doesn't require any additional salary filler. And although that may leave Denver's depth chart fairly shallow at center, this roster can more than survive that.
Nikola Jokic should play well over 30 minutes per game, leaving 14-15 for backup 5s. Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant and Michael Porter Jr. have the size to platoon up for that role if rookie second-round pick Bol Bol isn't up for the task.
With stellar bench players like Monte Morris and Malik Beasley, any of those options at the 5 would naturally lead to a running attack, which is always a plus in Denver's high altitude.
Just think of a lineup of Morris, Beasley, Iggy, MPJ and Grant. That's fast, versatile and loaded with playmaking. And sprinkling Iguodala in with the starters (he might end up taking that job from Barton) significantly raises the group's defensive ceiling.
For Memphis, getting anything of future value for Iguodala would be a win. Most suitors are hoping the Grizzlies buy out the 35-year-old. One first-rounder helps Memphis far more than that.
Plumlee is one of the NBA's better backup 5s, but he doesn't make much sense for the rebuilding Grizzlies. Ultimately, he's the salary filler. And since he's on an expiring contract, Memphis doesn't have to worry about his deal beyond this season.
Kevin Love to the Heat
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Miami Heat receive: Kevin Love
Cleveland Cavaliers receive: James Johnson, Meyers Leonard, 2025 first-round pick
Kevin Love would be another intriguing option at the 4 for the Trail Blazers. And while we could introduce an alternate universe a la Avengers: Endgame, let's try to make all the trades in this piece coexist.
If the CP3 trade proposed above went through, Miami would still have James Johnson and Meyers Leonard to dangle in trades. Attaching a draft pick to those two for Love would be cap-legal.
Because of the Stepien Rule, Miami can't trade another first-rounder until 2025. And though Cleveland may insist on "some combination of young players and draft picks" for Love, as Cleveland.com's Chris Fedor reported in July, the Cavs might eventually realize no team will meet that asking price.
Love isn't as old as Paul, but he is also in his 30s and has injury concerns. He averaged 47 appearances per season from 2016-17 to 2018-19. Cleveland should at least entertain any future value it can get in a Love deal.
Opinions likely vary on which one of Love or Paul is more likely to command the return of draft considerations. In the end, perhaps the Thunder, Cavaliers and Heat could engage in a three-team deal that gets OKC's treasure chest involved. Miami doesn't have enough picks to appease both Cleveland and Oklahoma City in two separate trades.
For the Heat, a top three of Jimmy Butler, CP3 and Love surrounded by solid role players like Bam Adebayo, Justise Winslow, Kelly Olynyk and Derrick Jones, Jr. might be a legit contender to win the East, albeit one with major health concerns.
If OKC and Cleveland reach a point where it becomes clear that a salary dump involving Paul and Love is the best they can do, Miami might even be able to get both without surrendering a single pick.
Such a deal would raise the Heat's short-term ceiling, although Butler, Love and Paul all have checkered injury pasts. But if Dragic, Waiters, Johnson, Leonard and maybe a pick is all it costs them, it's worth the gamble.
