Final Fact or Fiction on All of MLB's Hottest Pre-Trade Deadline Buzz, Rumors
MLB rumors are overflowing before Wednesday's trade deadline. Even attentive fans can struggle to keep up with every tidbit and separate news from noise.
The hot stove shifts daily alongside baseball's fluctuating standings. A seller may be a small winning streak away from changing course next week, and a rough patch could dissuade a fringe contender from staying optimistic.
Most of these rumors focus on teams muddled in the middle.
Keep in mind that the final "fact" or "fiction" label is not a verdict on the report's credibility. Deciding "fiction" doesn't mean the journalist received misinformation or is making up scoops. It's simply a prediction that the rumored move won't become reality.
Because of the messy playoff picture, a likely scenario entering the weekend may not hold up until Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET. Yet as the deadline inches closer, one has a better chance of distinguishing valid buzz from empty chatter.
Rockies Could Trade Charlie Blackmon
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A new name has joined the pre-deadline chatter. According to MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi, the Colorado Rockies will entertain inquiries regarding Charlie Blackmon.
He cautioned that nothing is imminent and wrote that the chances of a deal going down are "remote." Yet this opens the door just enough for a flood of rampant speculation. Let the (likely unproductive) fun begin.
This is a tough blockbuster to script, as there's no clear indicator of Blackmon's top suitors. Morosi mentioned the Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals as possible candidates, but none of the trio is a perfect fit. While the Reds and Rangers are sinking too deep in the standings to deplete their farm system, the Cardinals could already have an outfield logjam when Marcell Ozuna (finger) returns from the injured list.
Any of those squads would make the deal for next year and beyond, but the Rockies should also have designs of jumping back into 2020 contention.
Then there's the possibility that Blackmon's absurd splits could scare off any interested parties. His stellar season comes entirely on the strength of his .415/.470/.848 slash line at Coors Field. The 33-year-old outfielder is batting .243/.278/.393 away from his home park.
If you're a 48-55 team whose park can turn an average hitter into an All-Star, it makes sense to explore the trade market for a veteran outfielder set to receive at least $21 million in each of the next three seasons (with a player option in the third year).
But what would the Rockies want for Blackmon? While they need pitching, no acquisition will solve that problem unless he comes with a deed to a new stadium. Last month, ESPN's Sam Miller discovered Coors' park factor is reaching its highest levels since Colorado installed a humidor in 2002.
The Rockies may keep an open mind and entertain offers, but don't expect them to move Blackmon this summer.
Verdict: Fiction
Cleveland 'Less Likely' to Move Trevor Bauer
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Not sure about how the Cleveland Indians plan to approach the deadline? Neither are their competitors, who remain unsure of Trevor Bauer's true availability.
"The Indians' posture this July has left a number of executives in the industry confused," ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote Wednesday. "Some think they are primed to be aggressive and deal Bauer. Others believe they're simply not inclined to do much at all."
The calculus has changed considerably in July, as Cleveland has roared back into the playoff picture by winning 17 of its last 24 games. According to ESPN's Buster Olney, rival executives think it's "less likely" Cleveland will move Bauer.
Yet Joel Sherman of the New York Post has heard otherwise.
"[The Indians] are very progressive. Bauer is available," an executive told Sherman. "They are open-minded. Despite what is going on (in the standings), this is just business. No one shows up at their ballpark."
Maybe nobody is truly wrong here. Cleveland, despite its recent surge, knows Bauer will be a free agent after the 2020 season. He has made clear his plans to only sign one-year deals, and the Indians have rarely paid top dollar to retain their stars.
They should keep their line open just in case an overzealous contender is willing to pay a premium. After all, Bauer has improved his ERA to 3.49 and compiled 57 strikeouts in his last six starts.
Barring an offer the Indians can't refuse, keeping the 28-year-old for another pennant push remains the more probable path. Bauer will still hold plenty of trade value in the offseason, and Cleveland may be more comfortable trading him then if Corey Kluber and/or Carlos Carrasco are back to anchor the rotation alongside Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber.
Verdict: Fact
Giants No Longer Selling, Will Keep Madison Bumgarner
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We didn't know much about this trade deadline, but we knew the San Francisco Giants were sellers.
Maybe not.
Winners of 16 of their last 20, the Giants have climbed north of .500. Now there's uncertainty if starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner, closer Will Smith or any of their other relievers are available.
According to MLB Network's Jon Heyman, others around the league don't expect them to sell.
Based on their subpar offense and minus-43 run differential, the Giants probably should still float their top pitchers set to hit the open market. As noted by The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, they could extend qualifying offers to both Bumgarner and Smith, setting up a compensatory draft pick if either leaves.
That doesn't mean they will sell. Such a course would displease the remaining players and fans, especially during Bruce Bochy's final season as manager. A package received for Bumgarner would have to outweigh the poor optics of trading an ace who led them to three World Series titles.
For now, Bumgarner's squad has kept him in San Francisco. However, the Giants could revert into sell mode if the San Diego Padres sweep them this weekend.
This also doesn't mean every reliever will stay put. Morosi suggested they may still move a reliever or two, perhaps for immediate offensive help, even if they keep Bumgarner.
Verdict: Fact
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Yasiel Puig 'Strong Candidate' to Get Traded
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The Cincinnati Reds' deadline status has remained a mystery. While their 46-54 record befits a clear seller, a plus-35 run differential could give them second thoughts.
Recent buzz offers the biggest indication yet on which direction they're leaning toward. According to Rosenthal, Yasiel Puig is "a particularly strong candidate to be moved."
As he should be. Following a disappointing start to 2019, the mercurial outfielder is batting .312 with 12 home runs and six stolen bases since the start of June. He's on pace to set personal bests in each of the latter two categories and has corrected a sudden, bizarre inability to hit lefties that cropped up over the past two seasons.
In a pitching-driven market, Puig would be one of the most exciting sluggers on the block. The Indians, Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs could all use an extra bat to ignite their lineups for the stretch run, so the Reds could fetch a quality prospect or two for the impending free agent.
Second in weighted on-base average (wOBA) since the All-Star break, Cincinnati is also capable of storming up the standings like Cleveland and San Francisco. But given the team's 3.2 percent probability of reaching the playoffs (via FanGraphs), it's still not the best bet to make.
Reds general manager Nick Krall—who, contrary to Google's belief, is not the comedian behind Big Mouth—can also shop starter Tanner Roark to teams who strike out on the more illustrious aces. Beyond them, however, Scooter Gennett and Raisel Iglesias' recent struggles will prevent more of a teardown.
Verdict: Fact
Mets 'Open' to Trading Edwin Diaz
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With the New York Mets' season in shambles, first-year general manager Brodie Van Wagenen may lose sleep over the ill-fated Edwin Diaz trade.
Nearly eight months later, per Passan, the Mets are "open" to flipping the struggling closer, but "only if they hit a home run." According to Passan, an executive said the Mets are "asking for more than they gave up for him" last offseason.
In other words, the Mets aren't trading Diaz.
The minor leaguers involved in the original deal, Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, respectively rank Nos. 22 and 65 among MLB.com's top prospects. Thrown in as salary dumps, Jay Bruce has belted 24 home runs and Anthony Swarzak has submitted a 3.09 ERA.
That doesn't factor in Robinson Cano. Under contract for the Mets through 2023, his age-40 season, he's hitting .250/.295/.410 with 0.0 WAR despite Tuesday's three-homer breakthrough.
The Mets bought Diaz at his peak value, so they can't possibly expect to recuperate the entire cost while he carries a 4.81 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Further complicating matters, he exited Thursday's appearance after getting hit on the foot by a comebacker. X-rays came back negative, per The Athletic's Tim Britton, but he'll have limited time to convince suitors he's fine.
It sounds like they're merely open to dealing the 25-year-old closer the same way the Los Angeles Angels may consider moving Mike Trout if the Atlanta Braves offered Ronald Acuna Jr. and a few of their best minor leaguers.
Look for New York to pawn impending free agents Zack Wheeler—if he has a solid performance in Friday's return from the injured list after a shoulder impingement—and Jason Vargas. The bigger uncertainty is whether the organization will deal Noah Syndergaard.
Verdict: Fiction
Mets 'Fully Intent' on Moving Noah Syndergaard
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As of Thursday morning, the sense seemed to be that the Mets were simply doing their due diligence on Syndergaard. Recent reports, however, have shown a shift in urgency.
According to Olney, the Mets are "fully intent" on moving Syndergaard before the deadline. An executive said they're "beyond listening."
Furthermore, Rosenthal noted they're exploring the option of trading Syndergaard and signing Wheeler to an extension.
This is nevertheless a "believe it when you see it" scenario. Syndergaard is under team control for two more full seasons, so moving him would represent a clear step toward rebuilding. A New York squad that just traded its best prospects for an expensive veteran and a reliever—and retained Syndergaard, Wheeler and Jacob deGrom under similar circumstances last season—may have cold feet about making a sudden about-face.
Also, like with Diaz, it may not behoove the Mets to move Syndergaard during a subpar season. His 4.33 ERA represents the worst mark of his career by over a full run. While someone is still likely to pay a bounty, the Mets might be better off letting the 26-year-old rebound and revisiting talks this offseason.
Verdict: Fiction
Marcus Stroman Is 'Best Starter Available for Now'
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With Cleveland and San Francisco cruising, Bauer and Bumgarner each look poised to stay put. Even if the Mets are serious about shopping Syndergaard, he's having a down season.
Marcus Stroman, meanwhile, has outperformed all of them this year. The 28-year-old righty improved his ERA to 2.96 after containing Cleveland to one run over seven frames Wednesday. That gives the All-Star six quality starts in his last seven outings.
Is he now the top starting pitcher on the market? Heyman tweeted some executives believe that's the case. That could coax the Toronto Blue Jays to "strike early."
This claim depends on a few more hurlers Heyman mentioned as uncertain to move. Age and salary issues aside, 35-year-old Zack Greinke would offer an immense boost atop any rotation. The Arizona Diamondbacks, however, sport the greatest scoring margin (plus-64) of any NL wild-card contender.
While Matt Boyd's 4.07 ERA is far higher than Stroman's exquisite clip, his 3.56 FIP is just four ticks larger than the Blue Jays starter's due to a 12.8-point edge in strikeout rate. Impeding his departure, the Detroit Tigers will have an astronomical asking price given his three years of team control after 2019.
Stroman's biggest challenger might be Mike Minor, who has mustered a 3.00 ERA and 136 strikeouts in 135 innings for the Texas Rangers. Texas' rough patch makes a deal more likely, but the Rangers may be more inclined than the Blue Jays to attempt a 2020 run.
Besides, Stroman is younger than Minor (31) with a better career ERA and FIP. While the former is rolling, the latter has ceded a 6.04 ERA in July.
For all the top-brand aces percolating on the hot stove, Stroman is the best one with a high probability of getting dealt within the week.
Verdict: Fact
Note: All advanced stats are courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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