Who Has the Most to Lose in Kawhi Leonard Sweepstakes?
All is appropriately quiet on the Kawhi Leonard front as three teams—the Toronto Raptors, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers—await word from the last superstar free agent on the market.
Contrary to popular belief, the waiting will not be the hardest part of this ordeal. The real pain will come after Leonard's decision, when two of those three teams, with hopes dashed, will be left to figure out their Leonard-free futures.
Raptors would still have that ring
Toronto hardly belongs in the conversation about which franchise will be in the most distress without Leonard. The Raptors are mere weeks removed from a title, having gotten as much from their year with Kawhi as anyone could have imagined.
Sure, losing Leonard would remove the Raptors from serious title contention and turn 2019-20 into a stopgap year before Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka hit free agency next summer. But Toronto knew Leonard was likely a one-year rental. It did everything it could to sell him on life with the Raptors, winning a ring and being feted like royalty during a championship parade—one that ended up feeling like a coronation. If it wasn't enough, the Raptors can move on knowing they gave it everything they had.
And they certainly shouldn't be caught off guard.
Lakers wouldn't be a title favorite
If not the Raptors, many would argue the Lakers have the most to lose if Leonard spurns them.
Toronto would rank among the championship favorites with Leonard in tow, but the Lakers would almost certainly vault into a clear front-running position with him. Unlike the Raptors, though, L.A. wouldn't be in line for a rebuild without Leonard.
It would still have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, with the latter giving the Lakers a 26-year-old superstar around whom to build for the foreseeable future—assuming all the hassle of getting AD to Los Angeles was for more than a short-term stay.
In a strange way, the Lakers' concerns will be similar with or without Leonard. They'll be thin depthwise and vulnerable to injury. They'll have a hard time filling out a roster, particularly with so many free agents already off the market. Leonard would reduce the severity of those issues, but he wouldn't eliminate them.
Bottom line: The Lakers could be historically great with Leonard, but they'll almost certainly be very good without him.
Clippers would be stuck
The Clippers are different. They don't have one, let alone two, superstars to anchor the roster. And, obviously, they're not still basking in a championship glow like the Raptors are.
Without Leonard, the Clips would likely enter 2019-20 with Danilo Gallinari as their best player. That was enough last season to win 48 games and reach the playoffs, but it's hard to imagine the Clippers would be psyched to run it back.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Landry Shamet give the team a promising backcourt that should continue to develop. With Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams also back, L.A. will still have plenty of veteran talent as well.
Throw in Montrezl Harrell, Gallo and Maurice Harkless, plus restricted free agents Rodney McGruder and Ivica Zubac, should they return, and the Clips have a solid rotation. That's fine, but it was never the plan.
We've become process-focused in our analysis of NBA franchises. We laud teams that avoid bad contracts, pile up picks, develop young talent and generally conduct themselves in accordance with a long-term plan. The Clippers are perhaps the best recent example of the kind of franchise management most people prefer.
It's just that at some point, the process has to yield results.
Missing on Leonard wouldn't render the Clips' approach meaningless; the whole point of big-picture thinking like theirs is to position the organization so it can capitalize on opportunities across the board. But it's also clear the Clippers maneuvered as they did with Leonard in mind.
Today's Clippers are about as different from the New York Knicks as can be, but if Leonard doesn't sign with them, they'll be in a similar position: stuck without the star they wanted and left with no choice but to roll over that salary-cap space to next year.
If the Clippers keep the powder dry, Gallinari's expiring contract will open up even more room to sign stars in 2020. But next year's free-agent market is a wasteland compared to 2019's, and it's always easier to add high-end players if you've already got one. In that sense, missing out on Leonard this summer could hurt the Clippers' chances at getting more talent in the future.
Everything the Clippers did to make themselves a desirable free-agent destination is sustainable. The smart management, flexibility and opportunistic asset-hoarding are all signs of a franchise that will remain competitive for years. The Clips are built the right way, and they'll be in position to make a tantalizing pitch to the next Leonard that hits the market.
It's just that they seemed to really want this one.
.jpg?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")
