CFB Stars with the Most to Gain/Lose in NFL Draft Value in Remaining Bowl Games
For the most part, college football's bowl games don't have much of an impact on the NFL draft stock of the players involved. There are already several seasons' worth of tape on all these guys, and their individual predraft workouts and draft combine performances tend to be much more important to NFL franchises.
But while a player's final game may be a minor data point for the vast majority of draft hopefuls, there are quite a few players who can still make a lasting impression—good or bad—during the remainder of bowl season.
For instance, Texas wide receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey had a massive junior year in Big 12 play, but how he fares against a real defense in the Sugar Bowl might be more important than the entirety of his regular-season accomplishments. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins is in a similar situation, facing a tough secondary while weighing a tough decision about whether to stay in school or go pro.
Players are listed in chronological order of their bowl games, except for the College Football Playoff games, which are reserved for the end.
Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
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Daniel Jones is to the 2019 NFL draft what Josh Allen was to the 2018 NFL draft: a quarterback whom scouts fell in love with before the season and refused to waver on in spite of mediocre statistics.
Jones only completed 59.0 percent of his passes and finished the regular season with a passer efficiency rating of 124.8—tied with Pitt QB Kenny Pickett for the seventh-best rating in the ACC. Jones did most of his damage against Pittsburgh, North Carolina and Northwestern, none of which rank top-60 nationally in passer efficiency rating allowed. Against good defenses like Clemson, Miami and Virginia, he didn't do much of anything.
In what will likely be the last game of his college career, he has to deal with a Temple secondary that ranked seventh nationally in passing yards allowed per game, as well as fifth in PER.
Was Temple actually good, though, or are those numbers just a product of facing a favorable schedule? The Owls got torched by UCF, Houston and Buffalo, which are the only three teams they played with likely NFL QBs on the roster. Aside from those three opponents, Temple held every FBS foe below 200 passing yards and had six games without a single passing touchdown allowed.
If Jones could follow in the footsteps of Tyree Jackson, McKenzie Milton and D'Eriq King with a nice showing against Temple in the Walk-On's Independence Bowl, it might erase lingering doubts from a weak November and cement him as a first-round pick. Conversely, if he struggles with this AAC defense, it might raise enough concerns to drop/keep him behind the likes of Drew Lock, Will Grier and Ryan Finley—which may mean slipping to the third or fourth round.
Joe Jackson, DL, Miami
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Perhaps the most intriguing battle between one player and an opposing unit is Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor against Miami's front seven in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl.
Taylor led the nation in rushing yards and is just 11 yards away from becoming the 10th person in the past decade to rush for at least 2,000 yards in a season. And with Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook already ruled out of this game with concussion symptoms, Taylor figures to get as many touches as he can handle.
But Miami had an excellent defense this season, allowing just 3.27 yards per carry and leading the nation in passing yards allowed per game.
Veteran defensive end Joe Jackson was a big piece of that puzzle, recording double-digit tackles for loss for the third consecutive season. In Miami's final two games, he had five tackles for loss, four of which were sacks.
His ability to get into the backfield should be a huge factor in this game, especially with teammate Gerald Willis III (18 tackles for loss) out with a hand injury. If Jackson is a key component in stifling Taylor and propelling Miami to a win, he might be deemed worthy of a second-round draft pick.
Bryce Hall and Juan Thornhill, DBs, Virginia
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Virginia quietly had a great year of defending the pass, and it was especially impenetrable in November.
For the season, the Cavaliers allowed 180.1 yards per game and just 12 touchdowns. But over the final four games, Bryce Hall, Juan Thornhill and Co. limited the opposition to a 44.6 completion percentage and 111.5 yards per game with one touchdown and five interceptions.
Thornhill led the Cavaliers in both tackles (92) and interceptions (five), surging up draft boards with 36 tackles over his final three games. And Hall broke up more passes (20) than any other player in the country this season. The latter might be a first-round draft pick, and the former is at least in the conversation and might get there with one more tackle party in the Belk Bowl.
They'll face a stiff test against South Carolina and Jake Bentley. Even though Deebo Samuel is sitting out to prepare for the NFL draft, the Gamecocks still have solid receivers in Bryan Edwards and Shi Smith. South Carolina's 32 receiving touchdowns tied for the eighth-highest mark this season, and it has averaged 4.0 passing touchdowns over the past three games.
Should be a fun battle between units that peaked late in the year, and Virginia's defensive backs could benefit in a big way from staying hot for one more game.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Anthony Nelson, DL, Iowa
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Points will be at a premium in the Outback Bowl. Mississippi State led the nation in scoring defense at just 12.0 points per game, and Iowa wasn't that far behind at 17.4 points. And neither offense is what you might call prolific.
But Mississippi State does have a great rushing attack, led by dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald. The Bulldogs rushed for at least 287 yards in 50 percent of games this season, including three out of four contests in November.
Shutting down that running game would be a noteworthy development for the Hawkeyes, and edge-rusher Anthony Nelson stands to gain a lot of money if that happens.
Nelson is somewhere on the border between the second round and the third round, depending on which mock drafter you prefer. He has 23 sacks over the past three seasons, but he's also a major factor for a run defense that allows just over 100 yards per game.
In the season finale against Nebraska, Nelson set a career high with eight total tackles, helping keep dual-threat QB Adrian Martinez from doing too much damage. That game should have prepared him well for dealing with Fitzgerald.
If Nelson struggles in this game and receives an unfavorable scouting report, though, the redshirt junior does have the option of returning for one more season.
Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
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Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins has not announced whether he will declare for the draft.
If he feels so inclined, the redshirt sophomore could terrorize college secondaries for another two seasons. But it's hard to imagine his stock ever getting much higher than it currently is. He threw for 47 touchdowns and more than 4,500 yards this season, obliterating Ohio State single-season records in both categories. In the process, he also completed better than 70 percent of his pass attempts and was named one of three finalists for the Heisman.
And it didn't much matter whom he was facing. Haskins threw for at least 396 yards in six of his final eight games, including torching a Michigan defense that entered that season finale looking like the best passing defense in the nation.
But if any team has a defense equipped to slow down this Ohio State aerial assault, it's Washington.
The Huskies have a pair of likely first-round draft picks in their secondary in Byron Murphy and Taylor Rapp, and they have held 10 of 13 opponents to fewer than 230 passing yards. In their three games against currently ranked opponents (Washington State and Utah twice), the Huskies had six interceptions without allowing a single passing touchdown.
If Haskins does his usual thing, it might be time to start talking about his potential to be the No. 1 overall pick. If Washington wins the battle and Haskins has his worst game of the season, though, maybe we'll see him come back for another year. (Don't count on it.)
Collin Johnson and Lil'Jordan Humphrey, WRs, Texas
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Texas is going to lose a ton of seniors this offseason, but it may also lose a pair of excellent junior wide receivers: Collin Johnson and Lil'Jordan Humphrey.
Both Longhorns were ranked as top-10 wideouts in this year's draft class on Matt Miller's latest big board. The duo combined for more than 2,000 yards this season. Humphrey led the team in catches, yards and touchdowns, but Johnson had a season-high 177 yards in the Big 12 championship against Oklahoma and is the more desirable draft prospect because of his height (6'6").
But receiving yards are easy to come by in the Big 12. Even the best defense (TCU) only ranked 40th nationally in passing yards allowed per game.
A big showing in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia (15th in passing yards allowed per game) could mean a lot to prospective NFL franchises, though.
Even in losses to Alabama and LSU, Georgia's secondary limited those quarterbacks to 50 percent completions. And the last time a team threw for 290 or more yards against Georgia was in September 2016. Deandre Baker, Richard Lecounte III and Co. will be ready to go to war with Johnson and Humphrey, and may well determine whether those Longhorns get drafted in the first couple of rounds this year or return for one more season.
Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame
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Julian Love was arguably the best defensive back in the country this season. He anchored a secondary that ranked top-three in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.4), passing touchdowns allowed (seven) and opposing PER (100.8).
But how much were Love and the Fighting Irish tested by quality foes?
They were great against Stanford's K.J. Costello and JJ Arcega-Whiteside and stifled Shea Patterson in his Michigan debut, but that's the full list of noteworthy passing attacks they faced. And they did not look good in the season finale against USC, allowing 349 passing yards in a close call.
Love had a season-high 12 tackles against the Trojans, largely because of the fact he couldn't prevent his man from making catches. But he could redeem himself and then some by shutting down Trevor Lawrence and Tee Higgins in the Cotton Bowl.
Clemson has been most dangerous with its running game, but the Tigers are averaging just over 270 passing yards per game to go along with Lawrence's 24/4 TD/INT ratio. Make no mistake, this team can move the ball through the air when it wants, and it is probably the best passing attack Notre Dame has faced all year.
A good game would make Love a strong candidate to become a first-round pick, but a poor showing might cause teams to think twice about making Love a building block of their secondary.
Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
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As previously mentioned with Texas wide receivers Collin Johnson and Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Oklahoma's Marquise Brown is in the unique position of finally getting to prove something against a real defense.
Brown played a huge role for Heisman winners Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, racking up more than 2,400 receiving yards over the past two seasons. He had at least 130 yards and a touchdown in six games this year alone.
However, Oklahoma only played one game this season against a team ranked better than 40th in passing yards allowed per game, and Brown was held without a single reception in that overtime win over Army. He had some incredible performances against the likes of West Virginia, Texas and Oklahoma State, but wide receivers ran free against those secondaries all year long.
Finding space against Alabama will be a much different story.
While it wasn't a conventionally dominant season for the Crimson Tide defense, it ranked 13th in receiving yards allowed per game and slowed down just about every opponent it faced prior to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. This is the best secondary Brown has had to deal with, by far, which should make it the most meaningful game as far as NFL teams are concerned.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
