DeMarcus Cousins Experiment Comes with No Guarantees in Golden State
If you were the Golden State Warriors, and the chance to sign DeMarcus Cousins for the mid-level exception fell into your lap, you would have done the same thing.
It's an imperfect analogy, but imagine you already had a garage full of luxury cars. A stranger shows up to your door and offers to sell you another one at a fraction of what it should cost, but you have to decide in 10 seconds.
You don't need the stranger's car. But it's awfully shiny, and you love a bargain. So you're saying yes and figuring out the details later.
It's the definition of a windfall. You don't question it. You don't hesitate. You take it.
Except...what if the move (and we're off cars and back to Cousins now) that sent the league spiraling into despair over the Warriors' ridiculous good fortune isn't the boon everyone seems to think it is?
The (Obvious) Achilles Question
We're a couple of months removed from the start of free agency, and the offseason is basically over. That gives us some distance to look afresh at Cousins, his fit and the potential risks that fell by the wayside in the fast-developing process of his signing.
The Achilles injury is the biggest hazard in play for the Warriors, but it's also the one they're probably most comfortable with. Cousins' return date is uncertain. The Achilles is fickle, and Cousins has never been known as a conditioning fanatic. The Warriors also have less incentive to rush him back than any team in the league. Four other All-Stars and three titles have a way of extinguishing regular-season urgency.
Certainty would still be preferable, though, and the Warriors cannot be sure what kind of volume they'll get from Cousins. If he's back in February, that's probably the same to them as a mid-April return for the playoffs. Of course, nobody can be sure what version of Cousins will take the floor.
It would be a miracle if Cousins returned at an All-Star level. Or if his mobility was somehow uncompromised. Or if he was the same unstoppable interior force he was before.
Framed another way, will he be 50 percent of the player he once was? Seventy-five percent? Ninety percent?
There's no telling. And there's also no telling when he'll be available to provide whatever percentage of his game remains after an injury that historically takes big men down a peg or three.
So...Whose Spot Is He Taking?
Let's say for the sake of argument that Cousins somehow comes back looking like the player we saw pre-injury in 2017-18. Does he play high-leverage minutes in that circumstance? Remember, the Warriors are at a place in their dynastic trajectory where their only serious concerns surround which players are on the floor (and what they're doing) in the most important moments. Game 7s against the Houston Rockets, for example.
If the answer is "yes, Cousins is out there," it probably means something's gone afoul with Andre Iguodala. Barring disaster, Cousins isn't slotting into a closing lineup ahead of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant or Draymond Green. Iguodala, being the key to a lineup that has won the Warriors rings, would deserve to play over Cousins if both were fully healthy.
The problem with that scenario is that the Warriors won't have any idea about Iguodala's peak level of play until the circumstances require him to reach it. On a team of experienced regular-season coasters, Iguodala may be the best of them. After the All-Star break last year, in Iguodala's age-34 season, the veteran wing's numbers spiked across the board—when he started gearing up for the playoffs.
Despite playing fewer minutes, Iguodala's points, rebounds and assists climbed. His true shooting percentage leapt from 50.4 to 62.5. His usage rate ascended. His on-court offensive rating went up, and his defensive rating dropped (which is good). In the playoffs, Iguodala's numbers were in line with his second-half performance—and in some cases even better.
Clearly, he flipped a switch.
We should assume he can do the same this season, which means Cousins' role figures to be limited when the games really matter. And even if it turns out Iguodala is finally washed, there's still Shaun Livingston to preserve Golden State's switchy death lineup. Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney would be better small-ball options than Cousins as well, given their athleticism, switchability and low-usage games. Plus, the Warriors know both can survive against the Houstons of the world.
In light of all that, it seems like Cousins might be little more than injury insurance in the event Iguodala and others go down. He's also a fearsome second-unit weapon—health permitting. If that's all he winds up providing the Warriors, surely he's still worth a paltry five million bucks, right?
Maybe, but the other costs of rostering Cousins could change the calculus.
The Potential for Unrest
The Warriors' winning culture and stable leadership structure allow them to absorb difficult personalities—or at least ones other teams might shy away from. Nick Young has a championship ring with Golden State. JaVale McGee has two.
Cousins, though, is perhaps the league's most notorious curmudgeon. His track record of on-court blowups, relentless whining toward officials and explosive dealings with the media sets him apart. Is Golden State's culture that sturdy?
The flip side, as elucidated by Stephen Curry on The Bill Simmons Podcast, is that Cousins adds a new element to a team that could use some freshening up after four straight Finals runs:
It gives us something to look forward to and something to really focus on—how we’re going to implement his skill set to what we do. Obviously, keeping our style of play, playing fast, using the guys that have been around these last three or four years, and figuring that out. But, it gives us something to look forward to.
Suppose Cousins gets frustrated upon returning, perhaps quite healthy, and finding he's not going to play high-leverage minutes in the playoffs. This is different than situations involving McGee and Young because Cousins, while hunting a ring, is also trying to rehabilitate his market value. He'll be a free agent after this season, and if he's not logging major time or occupying a role that showcases his health/skill/whatever, there's a lot more to lose in terms of future earnings.
Nobody draws more attention than the Warriors, and if executives across the league see Cousins languishing on the bench or filling a limited role, they might not be convinced he's worth much in free agency.
The Heavy Cost of Light Discord
Contrary to the way it was initially received, the Cousins signing carries real risk. There's potential reward there, too. Those second-unit minutes will be important; if Cousins leads the Warriors' bench in mopping up other teams' reserves, life gets easier for the starters. That's a big deal during a regular season that should be spent preserving the health of Golden State's core.
Even if everything plays out along the most negative lines possible, Cousins isn't going to burn the Warriors to the ground. But he might inflict minor damage. He might inject just a touch of dysfunction or discontent.
That matters.
Because last season, the Warriors snuck by the Rockets in seven games. They probably should have lost that series, and they probably would have if Houston hadn't gone 0-of-27 from deep during a series-determining stretch. If that doesn't underscore the fact that even a team as dominant as Golden State still plays a game of inches, in which the smallest margins matter, I'm not sure what does.
For that reason, minor damage to morale, chemistry, rotations or anything else could ultimately make a major difference. It could cost the Warriors a quarter. A game. A series. A ring.
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