1 Trade to Help Every NBA Contender Catch the Warriors
Fake-trade season is here, and it's a wonderful time of year.
It's the period when fanbases can toy with the ESPN trade machine and speculate about what could be. Anything is possible. All you need is for the toy to tell you the trade works.
Of course, "works" doesn't mean "realistic," and even the wins adjustment isn't always accurate, which can give you comically weird results. For instance, Robin Lopez and Omer Asik for Kawhi Leonard and Dejounte Murray isn't something the Spurs would consider, but the machine believes it's close to even.
So let's set a few ground rules.
First, all fake trades must be justifiable in terms of talent exchanged.
Second, three- and four-team trades happen, but they're hard to predict, so all of these are two-partner swaps.
Third, since these are trades that help NBA contenders catch the Golden State Warriors, they only involve teams that would have a realistic chance of beating the Dubs in a seven-game series after the deal is done.
The trades are ranked by the post-swap strength of each club, and contenders were determined using the latest odds to win next year's title, per OddsShark.
Kawhi Leonard to the Los Angeles Lakers
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The Los Angeles Lakers get: Kawhi Leonard
The San Antonio Spurs get: Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Josh Hart and a future first-round pick
Why the Lakers do it
They'd get the superstar they want without having to give up their $66.5 million in cap space. That would go a long way toward securing a LeBron James move to Los Angeles, according to many in the know.
ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski, Brian Windhorst and Ramona Shelburne reported as much when they suggested some form of this trade might be on the table: "As LeBron James remains hesitant to be the first superstar to decide on the Los Angeles Lakers in free agency, pressure is mounting for the Lakers front office to execute a trade with the San Antonio Spurs to acquire disgruntled All-NBA forward Kawhi Leonard, league sources told ESPN."
A Leonard-James tandem would be tough to beat and would reinvigorate Lakers nation with hope for another banner. The caveat to this deal is the Lakers are only a contender if they manage to pull this off, something Vegas is taking seriously per Bovada.
Why the Spurs do it
The Spurs are in a better spot than some think. After all, the remainder of this team, sans Leonard, won 47 games last season, and 42 of those came without the All-Star. So it's not as if jettisoning Leonard means they have to go into rebuilding mode.
Bringing in all that young talent would both improve the Spurs for the immediate future and help them start to fortify a group for the long term around players such as Dejounte Murray, Randle and Ingram as the foundation and Hart and Kuzma as key rotation players.
The transition could keep the Spurs' historic playoff run going for another decade.
The wrench in the works
There are a couple of things that could clog this up.
For the Lakers, giving up that much talent—even if it means getting a superstar tandem—could still leave them short of the Warriors.
In addition, Lonzo Ball would become somewhat redundant as he's not as useful as the secondary ball-handler. Apart from him, the roster would be so hollowed by expiring contracts and traded players that the rest of the team would have to be rounded out by G Leaguers and ring-chasers.
That's probably not enough depth around the pair to challenge the Warriors—even as prolific as those two are.
The Spurs also seem to be reluctant to deal Leonard to the Lakers—though that's his reported preference—because they don't want to facilitate another superpower in the West, per Chris Sheridan of Sheridan Hoops.
Couple that with the fact that other teams in pursuit of Leonard can offer more attractive packages, and a deal to the Lakers doesn't appear all that likely.
Kemba Walker to the Cleveland Cavaliers
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Cleveland Cavaliers Get: Kemba Walker
Charlotte Hornets Get: Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton
Why the Cavaliers do it
Very simply: to keep LeBron.
Bill Simmons said on his podcast, per The Ringer's Haley O'Shaughnessy: "I heard one of the reasons Cleveland took Sexton was 'cause they knew Charlotte liked him. And if LeBron does decide to stay, they know they have the Sexton and Clarkson for Kemba trade sitting there."
It's not the first rumbling that James would consider sticking around if the Cavs landed Walker, either. Cleveland.com's Joe Vardon has reported the team's interest there as well.
How much would Walker help Cleveland? At least some—and a lot if you consider his assistance in keeping the King in town.
Why the Hornets do it
There comes a point where the only way a team can get better is to get worse. The Hornets are past that point, and it's best for them to recognize it.
Worst-case scenario: Kemba, is, in fact, a "walker" and leaves. He has a year left on his deal before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, and the team might lose him for nothing. He's a talented player who can help a team win, but he's not a foundational piece you can build a franchise around.
If the Hornets come to grips with that and recognize the value of getting Sexton and worse this year (so that they improve their pick next season), then in two or three seasons, they'll be better off.
The wrench in the works
The buzz in Charlotte is that president of basketball operations Mitch Kupchak hopes Walker "ends his career" in Charlotte. If he's committed to keeping the guard, that would muddle things. For their sake, hopefully, it's just one of those things GMs do to jack up the asking price.
Kahwi Leonard to Boston Cetlics
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The Boston Celtics get: Kawhi Leonard
The Spurs get: Kyrie Irving, first-round Pick
Why the Celtics do it
They have Terry Rozier ready to take over as the starting point guard. Adding Leonard to their stable of switchable wings and forwards who can play the 2 through 4 would almost be criminal—and they're in talks to do so, per Wojnarowski.
The biggest challenge would be trying to figure out how to give Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward and Leonard sufficient playing time. But there are tougher problems to have, and a lot of teams would get steamrolled while coach Brad Stevens "figured" it out.
Why the Spurs do it
Here we go back to the essential point that the Spurs wouldn't be pushed into rebuilding mode. They'd still have plenty of talent.
Irving would give them a first-tier talent to take over the offense. While Murray has been emerging, he's not an elite offensive player and never will be. He would be fantastic at the 2 and help to compensate for some of Irving's defensive weaknesses, however.
The Spurs would be better this year than last and potentially a 55-win team again with this deal.
The wrench in the works
Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge seems to hate fair trades. If he's not ripping you off, he's not getting the deal done, which is why it seems unlikely the Celtics reach an agreement, even for Leonard.
Jimmy Butler to Houston Rockets
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The Houston Rockets get: Jimmy Butler
The Minnesota Timberwolves get: Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker, protected 2019 first-rounder
Why the Rockets do it
A Big Three with Chris Paul, James Harden and Butler would give the Rockets three of the top four ESPN real plus-minus finishers on their perimeter, along with Clint Capela at the 5. That would give them a Big Four as good as or better than the Warriors' Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green foursome.
Butler would fit in with the Rockets' style, as well. He's a two-way player who can either create off the bounce or shoot off the pass. He's got the kind of inner fight and vigor that would give Houston the edge it needs.
If the Rockets aren't already on Golden State's level (which their seven-game Western Conference Finals series indicates they're close), this would put them there.
Why the Timberwolves do it
There are all kinds of rumblings about how the Timberwolves are fighting within the pack.
Sean Deveny of Sporting News reported:
"Sources familiar with the situation told Sporting News that Jimmy Butler is uncertain about playing with Andrew Wiggins — Butler had problems last season with Wiggins, his work ethic and his approach on the defensive end of the floor. Thibodeau has had similar problems with Wiggins in the past, too, and he had some hope that bringing a tough-minded veteran like Butler into the locker room would spur Wiggins to improve. It didn’t."
A year after sending the Chicago Bulls Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen and Zach Lavine to acquire Butler and the rights to Justin Patton, the Wolves could lose him for nothing.
The wrench in the works
There are two things that could kill this deal. First, Wolves head coach and president of basketball operations Tom Thibodeau is about as flexible as a steel beam, and his coming to grips with the possibility that it was a mistake to trade for Butler is unlikely.
Second, this is entirely speculation. There is nothing to indicate that the Rockets and Wolves are even talking about the weather, much less a trade.
But I have it on good authority that Rockets GM Daryl Morey reads my articles, so maybe I'll give him the idea.
Kawhi Leonard to the Philadelphia 76ers
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The Philadelphia 76ers get: Kawhi Leonard, preserve cap space
The Spurs get: Markelle Fultz, Robert Covington, Zhaire Smith, 2019 first-rounder
Why the 76ers do it
Imagine a starting five with Ben Simmons, Leonard, Paul George, Dario Saric and Joel Embiid. You'd have the longest, most versatile, skilled lineup in the NBA, and it wouldn't be close. Well, the Sixers have serious interest in acquiring the Spurs star, per Sports Illustrated's Jake Fischer.
And if they make this trade, they'll also open enough cap space to sign George (or James if they also stretch out Jerryd Bayless' contract).
Sure, Simmons doesn't have a jump shot—but surrounded by bona fide three-point shooters, he wouldn't need to have one. With the number of ways that group could score—whether off Simmons' drives, Embiid's cuts, Simmons' kicking out to Leonard or George's secondary drives—it would be almost impossible to defend them.
And that's not even the best part.
The defense would potentially be the best in NBA history. Imagine Simmons, Leonard and George guarding the perimeter with Embiid protecting the rim.
Why the Spurs do it
They'd get two young players for their core, with one being the type of the three-and-D guy they'd utilize as well as anyone in the league (Smith).
Fultz had his well-advertised shoulder and shooting issues his first year, but it's far too early to give up on him. Smith was the 16th pick in this year's draft, is from Texas and has tons of potential. Another first-round pick next year could add a rotation player to the mix.
A potential star, an established starter in Covington and two more possible rotation players might comprise as good of a package as anyone is offering.
The wrench in the works
The Celtics might offer more, but they might not be inclined to get into a bidding war.
The only other way this can get gummed up is if Leonard makes it clear he's not re-signing with the Sixers.
Salary-cap info provided by Basketball Insiders.
