Oddsmaker Says LeBron James Prop Bets Are Part Art, Part Science
On June 15, word began to spread that Kawhi Leonard wanted out of San Antonio. Guesswork abounded by fans, writers and offshore (online) bookmakers.
The latter group quickly updated the betting line for where Leonard will play next season. The Los Angeles Lakers became the front-runner.
During that frenzy, the oddsmakers made a complementary adjustment. For a while, Los Angeles had carried a slight edge in the LeBron James free-agency race. As of June 12, L.A. held 1-1 odds, meaning that a $100 bet would bring in a $100 profit. After the Leonard news leaked, the odds of LeBron playing in L.A. next season moved to 2-3, or -150.
As of Thursday, the Lakers were -155 to sign James, per OddsShark.
The LeBron speculation machine has made this betting prop extremely popular for online books. Meanwhile, the major casinos in Las Vegas don't accept such free-agency bets, for fear of inside knowledge. However, they do involve themselves in a more discrete way: by baking possible free agency moves into championship odds.
On June 10, the Lakers were listed at 16-1 to win the 2019 title. As of Tuesday, they were listed at 5-1, with the Cavaliers at 24-1. Most bettors seem to agree that James is destined for Los Angeles.
July 1 marks LeBron's fourth free-agency tour, and online books have provided betting lines each time. So far, they've guessed the winning team only once. And yet we wonder: Does Vegas know something we don't? How exactly are these prop bets formulated?
"It's a good blend of art and science," says Jim Murphy, a veteran oddsmaker who works for Sports Betting Experts. "You have to read between the lines on a lot of media stories. You have to filter those through what Hemingway called the bullshit detector."
But there's another element in play, Murphy adds: "Any time you do odds, you're trying to reflect public perception to predict where the money is going to go."
In other words, it doesn't matter if the favorite actually hits—books "don't lose sleep if they get a line wrong," Murphy says. What matters is that the lines are set in such a way that significant money is spread across a number of teams, thereby capping bookmakers' liabilities.
"As long as the money balances out, they sleep like a baby," Murphy says.
This free-agency fun unofficially began in the summer of 2010, when LeBron put the capital D in Decision. The modern NBA offseason was born that July. Think shameless recruiting pitches, the layman fan turned salary-cap expert and a nonstop free-agency news cycle that dangled tantalizing, misleading tidbits. It was a blast. And the oddsmakers—never known to miss out on a party—were in on the action.
The Cavaliers were listed as the favorites to (re-)sign LeBron at 8-11. The Bulls and Knicks were right behind them. The Nets—with Brooklyn on the horizon—were listed at 8-1. The Heat, with big dreams of pairing James with Dwyane Wade, carried 15-2 odds—winner, winner.
In 2014, LeBron hit free agency again after breaking through with two titles in Miami. The Heat entered the summer as 1-6 favorites (you'd have to bet $600 on them to profit $100). The Cavs were listed at 5-1 (+500).
On July 11, LeBron announced he was coming home.
In 2016, LeBron reached free agency for the third time. He was fresh off winning a ring in Cleveland, and it was presumed he'd stay there. The Cavs were the heavy favorites (-400), and his old team, the Heat, were heavy underdogs (+500). But there was no upset: LeBron's free agency was just a formality, and he indeed stuck around.
In the two years since, he's been stymied by the Warriors, losing eight of nine Finals games. In many ways, his current free agency most closely resembles the one from 2010: The league is on the verge of turning loose via trades and signings, and when it comes to LeBron's decision, noisy conjecture rules the day. Meanwhile, James is in desperate need of actual on-court help, and much like in 2010, several teams can offer just that.
To Murphy, L.A. holds the edge, though it isn't only because of Leonard's reported interest in playing there.
"LeBron's obviously a big brand unto himself," Murphy says. "You'd rather be in a big media market, so Los Angeles makes sense. I don't see a reason why he wouldn't go to L.A."
However, Richard Wang of Bookmaker.com isn't ready to go that far.
"Every day, the information is different," he says. "Today they could say Lakers, tomorrow there could be info on Cleveland and the customer will play Cleveland, and the next day it's Celtics—every day it's changing."
As it is, the Lakers lead the way at -155, per OddsShark. Then there are the incumbent Cavs (+200), with history on their side (or maybe not). There are the 76ers (+550), with youngsters who can carry James into old age. The Celtics (+900) and Rockets (+950) are readymade contenders.
But considering Vegas' history of whiffing on similar props, you may want to scroll down the list a bit. After all, long shots have hit before.
In 2012, as Peyton Manning's Colts tenure wound down, online books listed retirement as his most likely next step. Going to the Broncos was way down there at 25-1. Last year, when Shohei Ohtani reached MLB free agency, the Yankees were the presumed favorites at 5-2. The Angels didn't even have their own odds; they were part of what's known as the field—everyone else—at 25-1.
So, humor yourself and scroll way past the favorites, past the underdogs, past even the heavy underdogs.
Recent history tells us it might be worth a shot, if only just for fun.
