NBA Draft 2018: Odds and Mock Projections for 1st Round
The 2018 NBA draft is finally here!
Or it will be in a few more hours at least (7 p.m. ET on ESPN).
That's when prospects and clubs will be united by stronger powers than mock drafters, sending a shockwave of optimism—and maybe a dash of regret—across the basketball landscape.
For now, though, there's still time for another prognostication about the upcoming first round, plus a glance at the latest draft-night betting odds.
2018 NBA Mock Draft
1. Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona
2. Sacramento Kings: Luka Doncic, SG, Slovenia
3. Atlanta Hawks: Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C, Michigan State
4. Memphis Grizzlies: Marvin Bagley III, PF/C, Duke
5. Dallas Mavericks: Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
6. Orlando Magic: Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Missouri
7. Chicago Bulls: Wendell Carter, C, Duke
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Nets): Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
10. Philadelphia 76ers: Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova
11. Charlotte Hornets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky
12. Los Angeles Clippers (via Pistons): Lonnie Walker, SG, Miami
13. Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams, C, Texas A&M
14. Denver Nuggets: Kevin Knox, SF, Kentucky
15. Washington Wizards: Miles Bridges, SF/PF, Michigan State
16. Phoenix Suns (via Heat): Zhaire Smith, SF, Texas Tech
17. Milwaukee Bucks: Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA
18. San Antonio Spurs: Kevin Huerter, SG, Maryland
19. Atlanta Hawks (via Timberwolves): Elie Okobo, PG, France
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Thunder): Jerome Robinson, PG/SG, Boston College
21. Utah Jazz: Keita Bates-Diop, SF/PF, Ohio State
22. Chicago Bulls (via Pelicans): Troy Brown, SF, Oregon
23. Indiana Pacers: Jacob Evans, SF, Cincinnati
24. Portland Trail Blazers: Josh Okogie, SG, Georgia Tech
25. Los Angeles Lakers (via Cavs): Mitchell Robinson, C, Western Kentucky
26. Philadelphia 76ers: Donte DiVincenzo, SG, Villanova
27. Boston Celtics: De'Anthony Melton, PG/SG, USC
28. Golden State Warriors: Grayson Allen, SG, Duke
29. Brooklyn Nets (via Raptors): Dzanan Musa, SG/SF, Bosnia and Herzegovina
30. Atlanta Hawks (via Rockets): Melvin Frazier, SG/SF, Tulane
Draft Odds
Ayton Virtual Lock at No. 1
The way oddsmakers see it, the Suns may have already tailored Ayton's uniform.
The physically gifted Arizona product is an overwhelming favorite to be the first player selected, via OddsShark:
- Deandre Ayton -2000
- Luka Doncic +1200
- Jaren Jackson Jr. +4000
- The field +1200
If you can spare the funds and don't mind such a minimal return, feel free to put some coin behind Ayton at the top.
We've been trending this direction for a while now, and with good reason. Ayton's physical tools are seldom seen in a 19-year-old, and he put them to good use averaging 20.1 points on 61.2 percent shooting and 11.6 rebounds over his lone season of collegiate hoops.
Some might debate if he's really the top overall talent, but the Suns seem more than comfortable treating him as such. As an added bonus, he also addresses a glaring need. Center was a sore spot in Phoenix already this past season, and now Alex Len is entering unrestricted free agency and Tyson Chandler is approaching his 36th birthday.
Will Doncic Be a Top-Two Pick?
You can get +240 odds if you think he is, via OddsShark, which might seem like a steal if you share the opinion he's the No. 1 prospect. The line is -220 for going third or lower.
Then again, with Ayton essentially cemented in at No. 1, you're basically at the mercy of the Kings.
And, as Marc Stein of the New York Times noted, there's still no consensus regarding which direction Sacramento will go.
That said, Doncic is our No. 2 pick here, and he holds the same spot on ESPN's mock board.
Sacramento needs better flow on offense after bottom-third finishes in efficiency (29th) and assist percentage (23rd). While both Porter and Bagley have featured-scorer potential, Doncic's playmaking and advanced instincts might give him the best shot at bringing this attack together, as ESPN's Mike Schmitz explained:
"His pass-dribble-shoot skill set fits with Sacramento's young core of De'Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Justin Jackson and agile bigs Harry Giles, Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein. Using Doncic to push in transition and then pick teams apart in second-side ball screens in the half court is the best way to use him, and Sacramento has the pieces in place to accentuate his skill set in time."
If the Kings are searching for a star, they could do worse than nabbing the youngest ever EuroLeague MVP and Final Four MVP.
How Many Freshmen Go In First Round?
The NBA draft is a young man's game.
While this class could be just as heavy on first-year hoopers as last year, oddsmakers are split on whether we'll see more or less than 14 freshmen selected in the opening round. Either side of that bet carries -120 odds, per OddsShark.
The latest mock draft from Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman has 13 freshmen in the first round, including seven of the first eight picks.
That last nugget shows how this wager probably isn't for the faint of heart.
The early picks are almost always freshmen-heavy, so the over might seem like a certainty through the first 10 or so selections. But the middle round could be heavily populated with enough sophomores, juniors, seniors and international players to take this bet down to the wire.
Statistics used courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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