B/R Staff's Bold Predictions for 2018 NBA Finals
With 82 regular-season games and three rounds of playoff basketball behind us, we've finally arrived at the 2018 NBA Finals.
Yes, it's time for a rematch between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers. Part IV, to be exact. But no, that isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Over the past few seasons, neither of these teams had to clear the hurdles they did to get here this year. The Warriors won the Western Conference Finals without home-court advantage against the likely MVP and with their backs to the wall down 3-2. LeBron James willed his No. 4 seed Cavs past a competitive Pacers squad, the top-seeded Raptors and a young, scrappy Celtics team in a decisive Game 7.
Talk about Chris Paul's injury or Boston's short-handed roster all you want—both of these groups earned this.
With the Finals tipping off Thursday night at 9 p.m. ET, we've rallied some of the best basketball minds in the biz to break down what you can expect. Who emerges with the 2018 Larry O'Brien Trophy? Who takes home Finals MVP?
Maybe most importantly: Will Nick Young or JR Smith win this year's soundbite wars?
All of that and more is coming your way.
Kevin Durant Guards LeBron James
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Andre Iguodala's leg injury has not cooperated, which raises perhaps the biggest question of the series: who guards LeBron James? Iguodala won the 2015 Finals MVP in part because of his role in limiting James to 39.8 percent shooting for the series.
But a look at the matchup data suggests it might have been Kevin Durant's assignment all along.
According to Second Spectrum tracking, KD drew the James assignment on 77 possessions in two regular-season games between the two teams, far more than Iguodala (17) and Draymond Green (17). Durant guarding James paid dividends.
Both James' individual scoring and the Cavaliers' scoring were held below their averages when Durant sized him up. The question is whether Durant can do it for a full series and still be the tireless scorer they need him to be.
Warriors' Biggest X-Factor Is Stephen Curry
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Some teams have a card hidden up their sleeves that they've been waiting to deploy in the Finals. In previous seasons, that X-factor had been the Warriors' "Death Lineup" or adding Kevin freaking Durant.
This year, it's getting back to the basics.
Stephen Curry playing like Stephen Curry is the Warriors' key to winning this series.
Case in point is the second half in each of the final two games against Houston. Curry was the engine. He got back to his roots as the primary playmaker and off-the-dribble three-point artist, and that opened the floor up for Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson to follow suit. Slowing the game down and running the offense through Durant in the post only plays into the Cavaliers' hands.
Sure, the Warriors have the firepower to win even without Curry shimmying his way to a third title, but they're at their most dangerous when he's partying like it's 2015.
Ty Lue's Adjustments Will Be More Drastic Than Steve Kerr's
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These NBA Finals won't be decided on the sidelines, but that won't prevent Steve Kerr and Tyronn Lue from attempting to pull the right strings.
The Warriors shouldn't need to change much, and Kerr's biggest challenge will involve avoiding complacency, which can manifest itself in carelessness with the ball and more isolation sets. But if he wants to get a bit bold, he should hand more minutes to first-year big Jordan Bell, counting on his energy in small-ball lineups as the Dubs switch everything to contain Cleveland's perimeter shooters.
Lue's adjustment, however, is a drastic but necessary one.
The Cavaliers' best chance at success involves sloppiness from Golden State. Gaining a distinct possession advantage is the only way to counteract the Warriors' superior shooting. So, while the team ranked 26th in opponents' turnover percentage during the regular season and sits at 13th in the playoffs, he has to give his troops freedom to blitz screens, jump telegraphed passing lanes and be more aggressive with their hands.
Without turnovers, they won't find wins.
JR Smith Will Drop the Soundbite of the Series
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My initial thought on who I most want to hear drop a pearl of wisdom to the thirsty media was Nick Young, making his first-ever trip to the Finals. But then I remembered that the most he could get out during the Western Conference trophy presentation was "I got a hat" and "I'd rather be turning up at the club." So, let's move on, shall we?
The obvious answer here is JR Smith, who was so heartfelt and eloquent in the postgame press conference after Game 7 of the 2016 Finals. If there's one thing we can all rely on, it's JR Smith surprising us—be it not wearing a shirt, wearing a shirt, getting people to wear a shirt that looks like they're not wearing a shirt or making a room full of jaded journalists stand up and give him a round of applause for making them cry.
The man can truly do it all.
Kevin Love Will Be Cavs' 2nd-Best Player...Or at Least Needs to Be
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This series will provide an interesting contrast between "best" and " most important." LeBron James clearly sits atop both lists, but that's where similarities end.
As it pertains to importance, George Hill's wingspan will provide Ty Lue with his first point guard who doesn't have to hide on defense. Jeff Green will be the one who spells James from the duties of guarding Kevin Durant. Kyle Korver's ability to provide the Cavaliers a release valve in the drive-and-kick will be imperative for any sustained success.
But a healthy Kevin Love needs to be Cleveland's second-best player to make this a series. He must produce enough offensively to justify his inability to switch on defense. He will have to blitz effectively enough to at least make things difficult for the Golden State pick-and-roll.
I can't predict that Love will be the second-best Cavalier, but Cleveland will be in a world of hurt if he isn't.
Twitter Will Be Outraged by Warriors Spoiling the Drama
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This outrage has already started in more ways than one.
The Western Conference Finals have been declared the "real" NBA Finals. Professional hot-takers are dismissing Chris Paul's absence in Games 6 and 7, while others suggest the Warriors weren't sure things to come back from their 3-2 deficit.
These "The NBA is ruined!" rabble-rousers will undoubtedly be worked into a tizzy once the Warriors dispatch the Cavaliers in four or five games. And the soapbox manifestos will only branch out from there.
Another non-competitive Finals will dare people to wish LeBron James onto the Rockets. Then other needlers will point out that would ruin the Eastern Conference's appeal. Extremists will call for the NBA to undergo immediate expansion, so that teams (i.e. the Warriors) can only protect a few players in a hypothetical draft.
A select few naysayers will cling to Golden State's tax bill as a light at the end of the tunnel. Surely they have to part ways with one of Draymond Green or Klay Thompson over the next two years, don't they? Owner Joe Lacob reportedly wanted to ask Stephen Curry about accepting a discount in 2017, according to Marcus Thompson II of The Athletic. No way he pays annual repeater tax bills, right?
Then, inevitably, the focus will shift to whether the Warriors are the greatest team of all time, and whether James' legacy should be asterisked for failing to unseat them more than once. Such is the impact of these Warriors: They play a (mostly) beautiful, star-powered brand of basketball designed to eliminate macro unpredictability and draw the ire of disgruntled armchair soldiers with an internet connection.
This series should be great for the Twitter #ratios.
2018 Will Be Least Compelling Matchup of the Cavs-Warriors Saga
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I'm not trying to diminish or take for granted the hard work these two teams endured to journey to four consecutive championships, but this will undoubtedly be the least compelling Finals between the two.
The first Finals featured the freshness of the matchup. The sequel proved better and opened with the inevitable question of whether the Cavaliers could respond to their loss a season earlier. The third added another dynamic superstar into the fold in Kevin Durant and whether his defection from Oklahoma City would pay off.
In these Finals, we have subtracted a star from the series in Kyrie Irving, and LeBron James carries as much of a burden as he did in the first meeting when the Cavaliers lost Irving and Kevin Love due to injury.
James has done enough to prevent sensible watchers from ever doubting him in a best-of-seven series. Still, I'm doubting he has enough around him to make this one competitive.
Warriors Win Finals, Stephen Curry Is Your MVP
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There is some theoretical universe, I suppose, where the Cavs win the 2018 NBA championship. Some series of unforeseeable events and jarring twists that turns logic on its head.
Look, LeBron James is involved; all things are possible.
But short of a catastrophic turn—say, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant colliding at full speed, rendering them both incapacitated for two weeks— I don't see anything preventing another Warriors title. And if the Warriors are locked in at their highest level, I can't see the Cavs taking even one game.
That's no knock on LeBron, who's still going supernova every night. But he's carrying the worst supporting cast he's had since this Finals streak began eight years ago. The Cavs have neither the firepower to keep up nor the defensive tenacity to slow the Warriors down. Remember, the Cavs lasted only five games last June, when they still had Kyrie Irving. LeBron is now a solo act.
The series MVP will be Curry, at long last. He was overshadowed in 2015 by Andre Iguodala (for his defense on LeBron) and eclipsed in 2017 by Durant (for his electric offense). It feels like it's finally Curry's time.
LeBron James Will Search for a Lighter Load to Carry Next Season
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Now that LeBron has advanced to his eighth consecutive Finals, the inevitable question is: What's next? The frenzy over whether this is the last time we'll see James in a Cavaliers uniform was only delayed by his nearly singlehanded ouster of the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it wasn't eradicated. With the Cavs being heavy underdogs with seemingly little chance of getting past the Warriors, James stands four losses away from another crossroads in his brilliant career.
Nobody, probably not even LeBron, knows what he's going to do when free agency hits July 1. After playing all 82 regular season games and closing out the Celtics with a 48-minute performance in Game 7—at age 33, in his 15th season—it stands to reason that James will seek out a situation in which he doesn't have to carry such a heavy burden. For Cleveland to improve the roster enough to give James the help he needs, the only valuable trade chip they have is the No. 8 pick in the upcoming draft. Can GM Koby Altman risk moving the pick without assurances that James will stay?
The more difficult question is: Where could James find a better situation? Houston, with his buddy Chris Paul and James Harden absorbing nearly all of the ball-handling responsibilities? At this stage of his career, it would seem to be quite the luxury for James not to have to make every play, initiate every offensive possession and watch his fortunes rise and fall on his own merits alone.
What about Philadelphia, where James would be surrounded by younger stars and where Ben Simmons could do the heavy lifting while allowing James to dial down both his minutes and his offensive responsibilities? The Lakers, who seem to be going all in on Kawhi Leonard in 2019? As the team is currently constructed in L.A., James' role and responsibilities wouldn't be much different than they are in Cleveland.
In weighing the possible options for James this summer, a person close to him told Bleacher Report, "It's a short list."
For James to leave Cleveland a second time, it stands to reason that it will have to be an overwhelmingly and obviously better situation—one that will allow him to contend for a championship every year that he has left while extending the window of his career as long as possible. When you factor in James' frosty relationship with Cavs owner Dan Gilbert and Cleveland's limited avenues for improving the roster, it might just be James' most difficult career decision yet.
Full Staff Series Predictions
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Howard Beck: Warriors in 4
Dave Schilling: Warriors in 5
Tom Haberstroh: Warriors in 5
Jonathan Abrams: Warriors in 5
Will Gottlieb: Warriors in 5
Adam Formal: Warriors in 5
Dan Favale: Warriors in 5
Scott Sargent: Warriors in 6
