Cleveland Cavaliers' Blueprint for Closing out Series vs. Indiana Pacers
In what's been arguably the toughest first-round series of LeBron James' career, his Cleveland Cavaliers are just one win away from advancing past the Indiana Pacers into the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
Almost nothing in this series has followed expectations. The Cavaliers, an offensive juggernaut throughout the regular season, have now been the lowest-scoring team in the entire playoffs (94.4 points per game). Instead, Cleveland's defense (ranked 29th overall in the regular season) has been the unit carrying the team.
We have entered the upside down.
If this series has taught us anything, Game 6 will not come easy for the Cavs. Indiana has used a balanced scoring effort and some timely shots to constantly cut down leads and keep Cleveland from gathering any sort of sustainable momentum. With Kevin Love and role players going MIA for quarters and even games at a time, it's been on James' shoulders to make sure he doesn't fall in the opening round for the first time in his career.
Traveling back to Indianapolis, here's how the Cavaliers can finally advance and end the Pacers' season.
Get George Hill Back and Healthy
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In Game 1 of the series, Hill was blindsided by a hard screen from Pacers big Trevor Booker, a seemingly simple play that's had some costly reverberations.
Hill has battled through a sore back ever since, even missing Games 4 and 5. His availability for Game 6 is unknown.
When healthy, Hill is arguably the Cavaliers' most important player in this series outside of LeBron James. With Kevin Love struggling, the Cavs need Hill to be a shot-creator and scorer to lessen the burden on James.
Hill had the highest plus/minus of any Cavalier this season (plus-5.2). His contributions don't always fill up the stat sheet, and he's not a big-time scorer or assists guy, but Hill's veteran presence running the point is invaluable to this team.
Since head coach Tyronn Lue inserted JR Smith and Kyle Korver into his starting lineup for Game 2, the difference with Hill running the team and sitting has been startling. In 16 minutes with Hill, James, Love, Korver and Smith, the Cavs are posting a net rating of plus-30.1. When just substituting Jose Calderon in for Hill, this unit plummets to minus-5.1 in 35 total minutes, per NBA.com.
The Cavs don't necessarily need Hill to win, but his presence would be a huge lift on a team desperate for ball-handling and shot creation.
Disciplined Shot-Selection
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With Hill missing games, Love struggling and no other real options to initiate offense, the Cavs have relied on James and an abundance of outside shooting instead.
While James has been brilliant, it's been the Cavs' inability to knock down outside shots that has handicapped them offensively in this series.
Cleveland is firing up 32.0 three-pointers a game, fourth-most of all playoff teams. Unfortunately, the team is connecting on just 31.9 percent on these looks, next to last overall.
Led by Victor Oladipo, Indiana has strong wing defenders who can close on shooters in a hurry. This kind of tight defense has clearly rattled the Cavaliers since Game 1 to the point where even open shots are being rushed.
It's no surprise the Cavs are attempting fewer three-pointers in wins (31.3) than losses (33.0) in this series. Only Kyle Korver is making more than 40 percent of his threes (41.4 percent) while Cleveland has five players shooting under 30 percent from deep (Smith, James, Jeff Green, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson).
While some of this shooting is bound to improve, Cleveland can't expect immediate success after five straight brutal shooting games.
It will take more offensive creativity and a heavy dose of paint penetration by James (and hopefully Hill) to seek out more quality looks and not rely so heavily on the three ball.
Kevin Love Showing Signs of Life
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This was supposed to be Love's time to shine.
With no Kyrie Irving, Isaiah Thomas or Dwyane Wade to serve as James' primarily running mate, this was Love's chance to re-establish himself as a premier offensive threat while posting numbers similar to his Minnesota days.
Instead, the 29-year-old All-Star is averaging just 11.8 points on 32.8 percent shooting in the series. He's been manhandled by Pacers' power forward Thaddeus Young, unable to get to his post-up spots or find enough breathing room to shoot on the perimeter. When matched up with Young, Love has made just seven of his 32 shot attempts (21.9 percent), per NBA.com.
It's not just his shooting that's suffered, either.
Love's tunnel vision on his post-ups has led to various strips and takeaways by Indiana players who automatically double, knowing full well he's not looking to pass. His 2.6 turnovers per game are second on the team, and account for a whopping 15.8 percent of his total possessions. For someone who rarely dribbles or handles the ball in general, that's a problem.
Defensively, the Pacers have tried to regularly attack the Love-Calderon duo in pick-and-rolls, taking advantage of Love's lack of foot speed and inability to challenge/block shots at the rim. Defensive issues aside (and typically accepted), Love needs to finally have a breakout game offensively.
Continue to Limit Victor Oladipo
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The Cavs' biggest challenge defensively coming into the series was to slow down the Victor Oladipo's incredible season.
Game 1 was a complete failure for Cleveland, as Oladipo's 32 points on 11-of-19 shooting (57.9 percent) and 6-of-9 from deep (66.7 percent) led the Pacers to a 98-80 win.
After Lue moved Jeff Green and Rodney Hood out of his starting rotation in favor of JR Smith and Kyle Korver, the results have been quite different.
The Cavs have consistently thrown multiple defenders at Oladipo, forcing him to give up the ball or settle for contested shots. Smith has been the head of the snake here and performed surprisingly well following a regular season filled with poor defensive play.
Since Game 1, Oladipo is averaging just 17.3 points on 30.9 percent shooting from the field and 22.6 percent from three. In the past three games, he has nearly as many turnovers (3.3) as field goals (4.0) per game.
With Smith as the primary defender, Oladipo is shooting just 28.6 percent on 35 total attempts, per NBA.com. It's been a team effort to slow the All-Star shooting guard, as James, Hood, George Hill, Korver and Jordan Clarkson have collectively held Oladipo to 38.7 percent shooting as well.
If Cleveland can keep him away from a performance like he had in Game 1, it should be in good shape.
Another Huge Game from LeBron
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This is bound to happen, right?
I mean, in James' worst game this series he scored 24 points and triple-doubled with 10 rebounds and 12 assists. Twice he's scored 44 points or more, both times in wins.
Unless Kevin Love suddenly comes to life, anything fewer than 30 from James probably isn't going to get the job done. That's unfair to him, but it's where this team stands as long as Tyronn Lue refuses to provide a consistent offensive role for either Rodney Hood or Jordan Clarkson.
James is averaging 34.8 points, 11.4 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game this series. The next closest Cavs are Love's 11.8 points, 10.8 rebounds and Jeff Green's 1.8 (!!!) assists. That's a staggering gap in both points and assists.
"When LeBron's playing like that, and he's playing that aggressive, it just gives the rest of us confidence," Kyle Korver said, via Cleveland.com's Joe Vardon. "He's the best player in the world, he's on our team, he's going to give us a chance every single night."
That's all Cleveland has at this point: a chance. In past years where this team steamrolled through the Eastern Conference, James could afford to have a 15- or 20-point night and the Cavs wouldn't crumble into the ground. Not anymore.
James continues to carry the Cavaliers and will once again need a big game to send the Pacers home for good.
Greg Swartz covers the Cleveland Cavaliers for Bleacher Report. Stats provided by NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
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