Bleacher Report's Staff NBA Playoff Predictions
Eighty-two games. We know the NBA regular season is 82 games, but it seems like this year more than ever we needed each and every one to sort out the mess that was the 2018 playoff picture.
Now that we've arrived, we can all take a nice, deep breath.
Except for one small thing: Chaos is officially back on the horizon.
While we know the matchups, this postseason has more mystery than any of the past few years. Yes, it's possible we end up with Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Part IV. (And no, to those already thinking it, that's not necessarily a bad thing considering each franchise will have cleared more hurdles to get there than ever before during their current respective reigns.) But there are too many storylines ahead of this year's playoffs to jump straight to the Finals.
This may be the last time we see a legend suit up in an NBA uniform. The top two Rookie of the Year candidates will continue making names for themselves. Each conference has a team flying under the radar that can't be ignored.
And yes, The Process has finally found The Playoffs.
With the 2018 postseason tipping off at 3 p.m. ET (San Antonio Spurs vs. Warriors), Bleacher Report has gathered some of its top basketball minds to break down what we can expect. So put away that Magic 8-ball. We've got you covered.
Manu Ginobili Will Play His Last Game in a Spurs Uniform
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At least 80 percent of this prediction is fueled by a desire to reverse-jinx the situation. I don't want Manu Ginobili to retire. The only people who do fall into three distinct categories, all of which are connected by their compulsive distaste for fun. They include: kids who remind their teachers that they forgot to assign homework 30 seconds before the final bell on Friday, people who won't dress up for Halloween because "they're adults" and endodontists.
The other 20 percent is our gut feeling that, at age 40, Ginobili isn't ready to sign up for another year with a San Antonio team that occupies a a sub-contender tier—especially in light of this season's un-Spursian palace intrigue surrounding Kawhi Leonard's health and connection with the organization. Were Ginobili to walk away, he'd leave $2.5 million on the table. Hopefully that incentive nudges him toward a return.
Take Tony Parker instead, Father Time! His deal's up, and the Spurs don't need a ceremonial third-string point guard.
Ben Simmons Will Have a Bigger Impact Than Donovan Mitchell
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Donovan Mitchell will get his buckets and points, but Ben Simmons will carry the Philadelphia 76ers into the Eastern Conference Finals. Though he may not match Mitchell's scoring average, he'll have a bigger impact on his team and each series with his ability to run the show and defend different spots.
His draw is also easier than Mitchell's with a Kyrie Irving-less Boston Celtics squad or an inconsistent Milwaukee Bucks team up next if the Sixers beat the Miami Heat.
Mitchell and his group would face the Houston Rockets in the second round—the team with the league's best record this season.
Simmons could also have a bigger workload depending on Joel Embiid's availability. Mitchell will ultimately be easier to game-plan for, and his margin for error will be smaller, given his reliance on tough shot-making and lack of overall versatility compared to Simmons.
Josh Richardson Will Become a Household Name
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Josh Richardson's progression has been easy to miss if you're not an avid follower of the Miami Heat. No matter, though. The national attention that comes with a postseason appearance will function as his public service announcement:
I'm here. I'm not going anywhere. And, oh, I'm the Heat's best player.
True story.
Richardson needs to work on creating more of his own offense. He's shooting just over 43 percent on pull-up jumpers inside the arc but not yet comfortable firing away from three in that same capacity. But he cans nearly 38 percent of his triples overall and is even more efficient off the catch. The Heat don't need him to do much else if Goran Dragic and James Johnson are logging heavy minutes.
Besides, Richardson has made himself indispensable to Miami with his defense. He rotates comfortably between the 1 and 3 spots with composed ease and has the disarming strength to smother some 4s, both on the point of attack and in the post.
The Heat may not win their first-round series with the Philadelphia 76ers. If Joel Embiid is ready to rock anytime soon, they'll probably lose. But Richardson doesn't need the Heat to advance.
He only needs a chance to showcase his full-throttle defense—which includes a pleasant number of blocks—for the casual fan to commit him to memory. And he's about to get it.
The Utah Jazz Can't Be Ignored
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The Utah Jazz don't feature many household names, and their best player is a 7-footer named Rudy Gobert who specializes in defense and can't average anything more than 13.5 points per game. Their top scorer is a rookie gunner, and any playoff team that successfully shuts down Donovan Mitchell will have thwarted both the primary and secondary attack. They're even going on the road for the first game of their opening-round matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder—a team that features much more recognizable names in Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony.
Except behind the league's stingiest defense, the Jazz have become a darkhorse contender. Not just to pull off a first-round upset, but to advance even deeper into the postseason festivities. Since Gobert returned from a knee injury on Jan. 19, Utah has allowed a meager 97.5 points per 100 possessions, allowing it to settle in 3.6 points below the next-best mark. Oh, and the accompanying offense has been solid enough to give this squad the league's only double-digit net rating over the same stretch (10.8), as well as an 18-6 record since the All-Star break.
Defense allegedly wins championships. So stop overlooking the NBA's most stifling unit.
And Neither Can the Indiana Pacers
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This doesn't mean the Indiana Pacers are going to do the unthinkable and send LeBron James home in the first round for the only time in his illustrious career. But they are going to test a Cleveland Cavaliers squad still searching for an identity and that switch it so desperately wants to flip.
And yes, that means ending James' streak of opening-round perfection, which dates back to a 2012 loss in a Game 4 clash with the New York Knicks.
Perhaps everyone is still struggling to catch up after the Pacers supposedly got fleeced in this past offseason's Paul George deal, which netted general manager Kevin Pritchard "only" Domantas Sabonis and Victor Oladipo. Maybe the world is just unwilling to accept that while Oladipo has become an All-Star and the runaway favorite for Most Improved Player, this team is so much more than a one-man wrecking ball.
Whichever explanation you choose, do the smart thing and catch up quickly. After all, the Pacers have played well enough that they rank one spot ahead of the Cavs in Basketball-Reference.com's simple rating system, which looks solely at margin of victory and strength of schedule.
Oladipo will do his thing in the playoffs, but so too will his supporting cast. Myles Turner is gaining comfort on both ends of the floor. Thaddeus Young remains a do-everything forward who's criminally overlooked. Darren Collison is a steady source of efficient offense, rarely misfiring or turning the ball over. Bojan Bogdanovic, Sabonis and others lend Indiana useful depth.
They may not be able to pull off the unfathomable upset, but they're ready to at least test the defending Eastern representatives.
—Fromal
Sixers Will Contend...if Joel Embiid Returns in Time
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No team is entering the playoffs hotter than the Sixers. They've won 16 in a row, elevating them into the No. 3 seed in the East. Remarkably, they've managed to win eight in a row without Embiid, who's still recovering from a concussion and fractured orbital bone.
There's no arguing that the Sixers are a threat to every team in the East. They finished the regular season with the league's third best defense, ninth best offense and fourth best point differential, according to Cleaning the Glass. They're big and fast and long and can bully opponents in the paint and make it rain from deep. Their primary starting lineup outscored opponents by a ridiculous 21.4 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com, the best mark in the league among lineups that saw more than 500 minutes together during the regular season.
Simply put: The Sixers have everything you look for in a contender.
Which is all great, but there are also reasons to maybe consider selling high on your Sixers stock. For one, 13 of their wins during this current win streak came over lottery teams. Also, as deep as this squad is, the lack of a fully functioning Embiid makes it vulnerable, especially to a savvy team like the Heat.
And so we reach the original question here: What can we expect from the Sixers and Embiid? The answers to those questions are one in the same. The Sixers will go as far as Embiid can carry them. With him, they're a Finals threat. Without him, they're just another solid and dangerous unit capable of winning a playoff series but that will be watching from home come June.
OKC's Success Makes Paul George's Free-Agency Decision Even Tougher
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Of the Oklahoma City Thunder trio, Russell Westbrook will stand out in some form or method. Choosing him wouldn't be much of a prediction.
Instead, my prediction lies in the player who will yield the juiciest storyline. Paul George has maintained all season long that his impending free-agency decision will not hinge on OKC's playoff success or lack thereof.
My hope is that OKC drops Utah in the first round, overcoming Donovan Mitchell's monstrous effort. Westbrook, George and Anthony unite in the semis to become the dominant, cohesive force everyone expected prior to the season and they upend the Rockets, presenting George with an unanticipated offseason dilemma in staying and building a suddenly brighter future in OKC or joining the untested Lakers.
Warriors Are Your Champs, and KD Is Your Finals MVP
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I can already hear the howling: How predictable! How boring! How foolish! The Warriors have real competition this year!
True, all of it. (Except the foolish part.)
Let's be clear: The Houston Rockets are a legit threat. They have the offensive firepower to stress out any rival and a nimble defense to go with it. They earned their place atop the West.
And the Warriors have legit concerns—chiefly, Steph Curry's cranky ankle. Their play these last few weeks (4-6 after Curry went down) doesn't inspire much confidence. They miss Curry, and they need him.
But there's plenty of talent left to carry them through the early rounds. Durant posted MVP-worthy numbers this season, and he's still flanked by two All-Stars in Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Curry should be back by the conference finals. The Warriors, at full strength, are still a nightmare to defend.
Will Curry get back to full health by the conference finals? That's a real question, one without a knowable answer. But there's plenty of time, and per Shams Charania, it could be even sooner.
Anyway, every other plausible contender has nagging questions to deal with. Can James Harden avoid another postseason collapse? Can Chris Paul? Can Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan shake off their own playoff demons? Does LeBron James have enough talent around him?
Lets stop for a moment to celebrate this much: There's more suspense and volatility in this postseason than anyone expected. The Rockets are a true threat to end the Warriors' three-year run atop the West. LeBron's seven-year streak as East champion is in real jeopardy.
We could see games in Houston and Toronto in June. (Or, dare we say, in Philly? Or Portland?) And yeah, we very well might get Warriors-Cavs Part IV. But it's not a given, and that's a good thing.
Still, talent rules in this league. And the Warriors, all caveats and MRIs aside, remain unmatched. Durant will carry them for now, and he'll again be cradling two trophies in June, when the Warriors toast their third title in four years.
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