Ranking the 2018 NFL Draft's Biggest Boom-or-Bust Prospects
The draft is the ultimate gamble for NFL teams. There's no such thing as a sure bet when it comes to bringing in first-year players who have never played a snap in the pros.
Sure, some bets are safer than others. There are some high-floor players like Penn State tailback Saquon Barkley and Alabama safety Minkah Fitzpatrick who most in the draft community expect to make a relatively seamless transition to the NFL. There's a reason both of those players will be selected in the top 10.
There's a flip side to that coin.
For some players in this year's class, it's not simply a matter of talent. Every prospect on this list has shown flashes of the ability to start (and even star) in the NFL.
But each of the players listed here also carries significant risk for some reason. For some, it's a hole in their game. Or a poor draft season. Or a medical or attitude issue.
It might even be a combination of factors.
Whatever the reason, these are the biggest boom/bust prospects in the 2018 NFL draft, ranked from smallest to widest possible range of career success—with consideration of their likely draft-day price tag figured in.
10. Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
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For most of the predraft process, Alabama's Calvin Ridley was the consensus top wide receiver in this year's crop. The 6'0", 189-pounder, who reeled in 63 passes for 967 yards and five touchdowns for the Crimson Tide last year, is a polished route-runner with 4.43 speed.
Per Chase Goodbread of NFL.com, Ridley wasn't shy when asked at Bama's pro day by Kimberly Jones of the NFL Network who this year's No. 1 pass-catcher is.
"I do feel like I'm the best receiver in the draft," Ridley said. "I just want to prove it."
And yet, Ridley has been sliding of late. The previously sure bet that he'd be the first receiver drafted isn't so sure anymore.
Ridley's 40 time at the combine was fine, but a 31-inch vertical and 110-inch broad jump were among the worst of any receiver in Indy.
Ridley downplayed the poor results of the jumps, quipping to Jones, "I don't get into a receiver stance and broad-jump before I run a route." But the reality is that Ridley is neither especially tall nor especially big-bodied. He's not going to out-muscle defenders for the ball, and if those combine numbers are any indication, he isn't going to outjump them either a la similarly smallish NFL stars like Antonio Brown.
Early in the predraft process, Ridley was viewed as a top-10 pick in some mocks. Now he may fall outside the top 20.
And even then, NFL teams hoping that Ridley can develop into a No. 1 receiver may be setting themselves up for disappointment.
9. Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State
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There are two types of teams in the NFL—those who have athletic, field-stretching tight ends and those who want one.
Danny Kelly of The Ringer thinks the Philadelphia Eagles could fit in both camps in 2018. Despite that the team already has Zach Ertz, Kelly believes the reigning Super Bowl champs will select tight end Dallas Goedert with the final pick of Round 1.
"Goedert is a dynamic pass-catching threat who could make a big impact for the defending champs right out the gate," Kelly said. "He's got size, speed and soft hands, and paired with Zach Ertz could give Philly plenty of options in two-tight-end sets."
The 6'5", 256-pound Goedert looks the part of a 21st-century tight end, and on tape he shows plenty of gas to challenge defenses down the field. Unfortunately, Goedert wasn't able to back that perception up at the combine or his pro day thanks to a hamstring tweak he suffered at the Senior Bowl.
The question is, will Goedert be able to get behind defenders anywhere near as often he did at the FCS level at South Dakota State? It's going to be substantially harder for him to get open as a professional, and he still has a ways to go as a blocker.
The potential's there, but in no way is he a sure bet—especially on the draft's first day.
8. Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
3 of 10
There's little question that Michigan defensive tackle Maurice Hurst is a first-round talent.
The 6'1", 292-pounder is arguably the best 3-technique tackle in the class of 2018—a disruptive force who tallied 61 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss and five sacks on his way to All-American and first-team All-Big Ten honors.
Of course, there's an issue—or Hurst's name wouldn't be included here.
Hurst was red-flagged at the combine after medical checks detected an irregular heartbeat. He was able to participate in Michigan's pro day after being cleared by doctors, and Michigan defensive line coach Greg Mattison told Aaron McMann of MLive that he assured NFL teams Hurst's health isn't an issue.
"They all know I was in the NFL, and I know what that is," Mattison said. "I said, 'Whoever gets him is going to be a lucky team.'
"... If I didn't think that, I would never do that to some of the NFL coaches. I'd be honest with them. And I think my players know that, that I'm going to be honest with whoever asks me."
The thing is, unless Mattison is also a cardiologist, he's not in a position to make any guarantees about Hurst's future.
And the chance that Hurst could experience the irregular heartbeat again (the combine wasn't the first time an EKG revealed an irregular heartbeat) might scare away some teams.
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7. Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa
4 of 10
Will the real Josh Jackson please stand up?
On the playing field in 2017, Jackson was one of the best cornerbacks in college football, pacing the nation with eight interceptions for the Iowa Hawkeyes. The 6'0", 196-pounder made one of the plays of the year with a ridiculous one-handed pick in an upset win over Ohio State.
But while Jackson was wildly productive in 2017, it was also his only full year as a starter. The combine offered Jackson an opportunity to shore up his first-round status and dispel fears that he was a "one-year wonder."
Things didn't go according to plan.
Jackson didn't have good workouts, posting a (relatively) slow 4.56-second 40 time and looking sluggish in his breaks in positional drills. As Mark Emmert of the Des Moines Register reported, the workout left at least one NFL analyst in attendance unimpressed.
"That [time] meshes with his workouts," he said. "Tight in his pedal, breaks. That doesn't translate to top 15-20, in my opinion. The traits aren't there in terms of testing."
Jackson bettered that time at Iowa's pro day—but just barely. Those times and tests may mean nothing—Marcus Peters ran a 4.53-second 40 back in 2015, and he's gone on to become one of the NFL's pre-eminent ball hawks.
But it's not unreasonable to raise an eyebrow at those numbers—or to wonder if Jackson's 2017 was less the beginning of something great and more as good as it's ever going to get.
6. Connor Williams, OT, Texas
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This isn't an especially stout class of prospects at the offensive tackle spot. There are a handful vying for the top spot at the position, including Connor Williams of Texas.
In the opinion of Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller, the 6'5", 296-pound Williams is the best of the bunch. But even Miller acknowledges that you have to look past his 2017 tape to see it.
"He did struggle at times this past season and missed half the year with a knee injury," Miller said, "but he's a fluid athlete with all the tools to be a left tackle. He's also reworked his body and mechanics over the last two years, which should immediately benefit him."
Per Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, though, at least one NFL executive isn't buying it.
"I heard all about how good he was last year, and then I turned on the tape, and what I saw wasn't a first-rounder at all," the executive said. "I can go back to 2016, but who is he now? I have to know who he is and who he's going to be in three to five years. Scouting is projecting."
If Williams can recapture his 2016 form, the youngster has everything a tackle needs to succeed in the NFL. Power. Technique. Agility.
But for most of last year, that quickness was nowhere to be found.
Williams is the epitome of high ceiling, low floor.
5. Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma
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It wasn't all that long ago that Orlando Brown was considered the No. 1 tackle prospect in the 2018 draft and a sure-fire first-round pick. Back in January, Bleacher Report's Timothy Rapp projected that the Los Angeles Chargers would make the Oklahoma tackle with the pro pedigree the 17th overall pick in this year's draft.
Man, a lot can change in a few months.
It's not hard to identify the cause of Brown's plummet down draft boards. The 6'8", 345-pound behemoth had a combine that will be talked about for years—for all the wrong reasons. His performance in Indianapolis was so god-awful that it left B/R's Doug Farrar wondering aloud if Brown had the worst showing in the event's history.
Brown finished dead last among offensive linemen in the 40-yard-dash (5.85 seconds), bench press (14 reps), the vertical jump (19.5") and the broad jump (6'10").
Yes, Brown was able to improve on those numbers at Oklahoma's pro day, if only because there was nowhere to go but up. And there's still a chance that in a weak tackle class, Brown may sneak into the back end of the first round.
But Brown's horrific draft season raises concerns that his collegiate success was solely because of his ability to overpower pass-rushers.
He isn't going to get away with that in the NFL.
4. Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA
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Quarterback might be the most sought-after position in the NFL draft, but edge-rusher isn't far behind. Last year's No. 1 overall pick (Myles Garrett) makes his living making quarterbacks cry. North Carolina State's Bradley Chubb (the top prospect at the position in 2018) has a good chance of being the first non-quarterback selected on April 26.
The No. 2 edge-rusher this year is likely Marcus Davenport, an athletic 6'6", 264-pounder who shined at the Senior Bowl and combine after piling up 8.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss in 2017.
In fact, per Nathan Forster of ESPN, the SackSEER statistical model at Football Outsiders projects that it will be Davenport (and not Chubb) who is the most productive pass-rusher of the class of 2018 over the next five years.
However, while Davenport was dominant in college, it was at the University of Texas…San Antonio. Davenport spent his time there easily getting past inferior offensive linemen. He didn't need a repertoire of pass-rushing moves or good pad level—he just blew right past/through people.
Yes, he fared well in Mobile, Alabama, back in January, but Davenport still faces one of the steeper learning curves of any player in the top half of the first round this year.
With that learning curve comes risk. Quite a bit of it.
3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
8 of 10
If athletic ability were the sole determining factor in which quarterback was the best in this class, it would be no contest.
Lamar Jackson would be the guy.
The 6'2", 216-pound Jackson is an electric athlete. His combination of arm strength, speed and elusiveness propelled him to the 2016 Heisman Trophy. His Louisville highlight reel is approximately the length of The Lord of the Rings.
All three movies—back-to-back.
But Jackson is also the rawest of this year's top QB prospects. His footwork and mechanics are spotty. Jackson's accuracy comes and goes. He struggles at times to read defenses and find the open receiver. He also has next to no experience taking snaps from under center.
Frankly, Jackson's chances at NFL success may hinge on who drafts him. If he lands on a team that's willing to tailor the offense to an extent around what he does best, he could turn heads for a long time.
But if he lands on a squad with a stubborn staff that's hell-bent on pounding a square peg into a round hole, things could go south quickly.
2. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
9 of 10
Baker Mayfield's supporters see a 22-year-old quarterback who just won the Heisman Trophy while guiding Oklahoma to the College Football Playoff—a fiery competitor who can make all the throws, completed over 70 percent of his passes the last two years and can extend plays with his legs, ala Russell Wilson.
Mayfield's detractors see an undersized (6'1") quarterback who was arrested last year for public intoxication, disorderly conduct and fleeing the scene, and disciplined by the Sooners after a crotch-grabbing incident against Kansas. To them, Mayfield is Johnny Manziel all over again.
Both groups are right, to an extent.
There's no denying Mayfield's a talented player, just as there's no denying he's earned his reputation as a hothead. He admitted to Robert Klemko of The MMQB he both tries to tune out the criticism and use it as motivation.
"I can ignore it," Mayfield says. "Although some things really tick me off and I want to prove them wrong."
There'll be no shortage of that sort of fuel. First-round draft status brings with it increased pressure. At quarterback, that pressure ratchets up exponentially.
How Mayfield copes with that will be the deciding factor in which of the two camps—who are equally convinced they're right about Mayfield—winds up being so.
1. Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
10 of 10
There isn't a bigger boom-or-bust prospect in this draft than Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen.
And there's one reason for it: Allen is the only player on this list with a realistic shot at being the No. 1 overall pick.
He looks the part. At 6'5" and 237 pounds, he has the size NFL teams covet and a cannon for a right arm. As a matter of fact, per Kyle Odegard of the Arizona Cardinals' website, NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock believes Allen has the strongest arm he's seen in some time.
"The biggest-arm quarterback I've seen since JaMarcus Russell," Mayock said of Allen and 2007's No. 1 overall pick.
That comparison should be equally intriguing and terrifying.
Allen completed just 56.3 percent of his passes at Wyoming in 2017 and 56.0 percent in 2-16. The list of inaccurate college quarterbacks who have gone on to star in the NFL isn't nearly as long as the list of inaccurate college quarterbacks who fell flat as pros.
If Allen can improve his mechanics (and with them his accuracy), his NFL ceiling is sky-high. But passers who can't hit open receivers aren't much good to NFL clubs, and his inaccuracy combined with his price tag raises the possibility he could be a massive bust.
Just like Russell.
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