Highlighting the 2018 NFL Draft's Trade Hot Spots
April is a time of great intrigue in the National Football League. That's partly because the month's waning days contain the 2018 NFL draft in Arlington, Texas.
But in part it's because of all the wheeling and dealing that will occur both leading up to and during the April 26-28 event.
Already this year we've seen one big trade between the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets—a deal that put Gang Green in position to select a quarterback third overall.
Of course, two teams pick before that, and both the Cleveland Browns (at Nos. 1 and 4) and New York Giants (at No. 2) have been mentioned as potential trade targets for NFL clubs looking to charge up the draft board.
Which of these deals might happen? Which are predraft smoke? And what might it take for a QB-needy team to get in on this year's sweepstakes at the position?
Those are a few of the questions answered here in a look at the most likely movers and shakers of the 2018 draft—ranked in ascending order of how plausible a trade is.
Pick No. 12 (Buffalo Bills)
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There's a substantial caveat included with this one.
The 12th overall pick and the Buffalo Bills aren't listed higher on this list because it's unlikely the team will try to package that selection with the 22nd pick to move up for a potential franchise quarterback.
As you'll see, there are several possible partners for such a pursuit. And an NFL general manager told Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports that GM Brandon Beane is "trying like hell" to make a deal.
No, the Bills lead things off because in this particular scenario, that pursuit will have come up short, spurring the Bills to trade down from No. 12.
By the time Buffalo is on the clock, it's likely the top four quarterbacks will all be gonesville. If the team wants one, it'll take a move up.
However, if that fails, an early quarterback run means there will be players at other positions available who otherwise wouldn't be. In his latest mock draft, NFL.com's Lance Zierlein has Florida State safety Derwin James (a top-10 overall talent on some boards) making it to Washington at pick 13.
That draft also has the Bills moving up to No. 5—but we'll get to that scenario later.
There isn't a huge drop-off in talent from No. 12 to No. 22 this year. If the Bills whiff on a quarterback (a blessing if the alternative is mortgaging the future for Josh "56 percent" Allen), then sliding back and stockpiling picks becomes a viable plan B.
Might as well get your money's worth from A.J. McCarron.
Pick No. 1 (Cleveland Browns)
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This is it. The holy grail. The golden ticket. The selection that allows its owner to have the pick of the litter.
As Nate Davis reported for USA Today, Browns general manager John Dorsey indicated nothing is off-limits in Cleveland this year—including a blockbuster deal involving selection numero uno.
"There's a lot of things I could do at No. 1—and not just get a quarterback," Dorsey said at the NFL Scouting Combine. "My door's wide open. Any good GM wants to field phone calls from all his peers, so why wouldn't I? ... My job is to try to get the Cleveland Browns better. My job is to explore every opportunity possible. I will do all my hard work to try to get us better every day."
This move could happen, in that all things are possible and the Browns have traded down 113 times (approximately) in recent years.
Carson Wentz? Deshaun Watson? Who needs those bums?
But there probably won't be a move at No. 1 for one simple reason: compensation.
Using the draft pick trade-value chart (a tool Jimmy Johnson pioneered in the early '90s and used by NFL teams) as a benchmark, a move up one spot for the Giants would cost Big Blue at least a second-rounder (and likely more). For Buffalo to leapfrog to No. 1, it would take the 12th overall pick, 22nd overall pick and another first-rounder in the top 15 or better.
That's a whopper of a price tag.
Pick No. 6 (Indianapolis Colts)
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The Indianapolis Colts have already shown they're willing to play Monty Hall this spring—having made a deal with the New York Jets to drop from No. 3 to No. 6, which netted Indianapolis three additional Round 2 picks over the next two years.
It's possible Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard isn't done making like Wayne Brady yet.
The impetus for another Colts trade is clear. If the sixth overall pick rolls around and one (or two) of the Big Four passers are still on the board (say, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield) then you can bet the rent Ballard's phone will ring.
Mr. Ballard, Steve Keim is on line one for you.
The Colts have their franchise quarterback in Andrew Luck, presuming health. But the team needs help in several areas—chief among them are the offensive and defensive lines.
A deal with the Arizona Cardinals (who have pick No. 15) or Bills (who pick 12th) would probably net the Colts at least an additional Round 2 pick—possibly more.
Granted, a defensive difference-maker such as North Carolina State edge-rusher Bradley Chubb or Alabama safety Minkah Fitzpatrick would be hard to pass up. So would Penn State running back Saquon Barkley.
But if the price is right, Ballard may keep banging away with the quantity-over-quality approach.
Whatever gets the job done.
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Pick No. 2 (New York Giants)
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As Ryan Dunleavy reported for NJ.com, New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman said the team is open for business regarding the No. 2 pick.
"Any decision I make is going to be in the best interest of the New York Giants, plain and simple," Gettleman said. "If someone makes me an offer I can't refuse, would I move back? It depends upon who is there."
Frankly, Gettleman already has a good idea who'll be there. If the Giants believe there's one more playoff run left in Eli Manning's right arm, the G-Men could have their pick of any non-quarterback at No. 2.
Barkley would spice up a lagging Giants ground game. Chubb could replace the departed Jason Pierre-Paul, who's in Tampa. Upgraded protection would be available for Manning in the form of Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson.
Or, the Giants could choose from the quarterbacks Cleveland doesn't take at No. 1 and use this unusually high pick (for them) to look to a future without Manning.
The key would be compensation. Teams in need of quarterback help will be tempted to get ahead of a Jets squad that will take a signal-caller at No. 3. But unless it's a franchise that's moving up just a few spots (say Denver from No. 5), the cost of a substantial climb up the round would be staggering—multiple first-rounders and then some.
It may well take that sort of knee-knocking offer to entice Gettleman to even consider a trade back.
Pick No. 5 (Denver Broncos)
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There are a couple of scenarios in which John Elway and the Denver Broncos might be interested in dealing the fifth overall pick.
The first, which is less likely, is a move up—perhaps in a swap with the Giants at No. 2. It would be a wildly aggressive move from Elway in his quest to find a franchise quarterback. It would also be pricey—moving up from No. 6 to No. 3 cost the New York Jets three second-rounders.
Not to mention Elway just handed Case Keenum $36 million ($25 million of which is guaranteed) to serve as the team's quarterback for the next two years.
The far more likely scenario has Denver selling. By the time the Broncos pick at No. 5, at least one (and possibly two) of this year's top four quarterback prospects (Allen, Sam Darnold, Mayfield and Josh Rosen) will be available.
Whether it's the Miami Dolphins (No. 11), Buffalo Bills (Nos. 12 and 22) or Arizona Cardinals (No. 15) there are a number of teams that may be interested in sending a package of picks to the Mile High City for the passer they covet.
It would have to be an excellent package. But whether it's on offense with Barkley or on defense with Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward or Fitzpatrick, an early run at quarterback would afford the Broncos the opportunity to add an elite prospect at another position.
Pick No. 23 or 31 (New England Patriots)
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Apparently, the "Patriot Way" involves quite a bit of Round 1 chicanery.
Tuesday's deal that sent wide receiver Brandin Cooks (and a fourth-rounder) to the Los Angeles Rams for the 23rd overall pick (and a sixth-rounder) in the 2018 draft, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, was the fifth time since 2012 that the Patriots have made a trade that involved a Day 1 pick.
It's the second time in two years Cooks was involved in one. Hope he's a renter and not a buyer.
The Patriots have moved in both directions, too. Last year, Bill Belichick traded his first-rounder to get Cooks. The team moved up in 2012 to get linebacker Dont'a Hightower (for the cost of a bag of Funyuns).
Now, with both the 23rd and 31st picks, Darth Hoodie and the Beantown Bruisers are suddenly equipped—if they want—to make a big push up the board. This isn't to say the Patriots are in the hunt for a quarterback a la the Buffalo Bills—although they could be if they wanted.
But if there's another player New England covets—a Minkah Fitzpatrick or Marcus Davenport or whoever—the draft capital's there to go get him.
It's just as possible the Patriots will move down, though. It's a staple of the Belichick era—wait for a team picking early in Round 2 (Cleveland and Indianapolis both have dual picks early on April 27) that's skittish the prospect they covet won't fall far enough.
And then twist the screws.
The Patriots have already made one big move. Don't assume there won't be a second.
Pick No. 33 (Cleveland Browns)
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The Cleveland Browns are in a position to make more deals in the 2018 NFL draft than a shopaholic at a flea market.
Those opportunities go well beyond the team's two first-round picks. As a matter of fact, one of the most likely scenarios involves the early part of the Day 2 festivities.
It happens every year. There's a flurry of activity as the draft's second day gets underway and teams jockey to move up to select a sliding, talented player.
Maybe it'll be a cornerback like Central Florida's Mike Hughes. Or a tailback like USC's Ronald Jones. Or an offensive lineman like UCLA's Kolton Miller. Or a linebacker like Texas' Malik Jefferson. Or a wideout like Maryland's D.J. Moore.
All five of those players were ranked between Nos. 33 and 40 on B/R draft expert Matt Miller's post-combine big board.
Compliments of the Brock Osweiler salary dump from Houston, the Browns have both the 33rd and 35th picks. Cleveland's sitting on three Round 2 selections this year, which puts it in position to make a move.
The Browns can trade pick No. 33 (or 35), add an extra Day 2 selection and still get one of the players high on their board.
It'd be a mild upset if Dorsey and the Browns don't flip at least one second-rounder.
Pick No. 4 (Cleveland Browns)
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This is easily the most likely top-five pick to change hands.
And it gives the Browns something as rare in Cleveland as a championship banner.
A win-win situation.
Assuming the Browns make the selection at No. 1 (and that it's a quarterback—the only position that makes sense in the spot given Cleveland's unending quest to find a signal-caller who can play), at least one of the picks that come shortly after will also be a QB.
It's possible both will be.
That means Cleveland could choose one of the draft's best non-quarterbacks. A legitimate difference-maker, such as Barkley or Chubb.
Either would be welcome on a team with holes all over the roster after the second 0-16 season in NFL history (2008 Detroit Lions).
Of course, the Browns could fill even more holes were Dorsey to trade down with the Buffalo Bills or Arizona Cardinals—who both need a quarterback but sit too far back in Round 1 to have a shot at one of the Big Four.
A trade with Arizona would net the 15th overall pick and an extra first-rounder in 2019. Per the 2018 NFL draft pick trade chart, Buffalo would have to offer both its first-rounders this year to get in the ballpark of what the fourth pick's worth.
This move wouldn't get either team around the New York Jets at No. 3—making it a trade more likely to happen as the draft unfolds. The player those franchises covet would need to still be there.
If he is—the Browns should be ready to listen.
And to drive a hard bargain.
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