NBA Free Agents 2018: Predictions for Players Who Will Command Most Interest
Two years after showering the likes of Timofey Mozgov, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng with grossly overvalued eight-figure contracts, NBA executives are headed toward their second summer of free-agency restraint.
The cash pool is dwindling. The available talent is top-heavy and in a lot of cases unlikely to move.
But there are a couple of flight risks who will force interested parties to roll out a line of Brink's trucks. Those are the ones we are spotlighting below.
There must be a reasonable possibility of their exit. If Kevin Durant is already saying he'll re-sign with the Warriors and the Nuggets have complete control over whether franchise centerpiece Nikola Jokic either stays under contract or enters restricted free agency, predictions aren't needed about their futures.
The following two standouts, though, won't make their decisions before being wined and dined on the recruitment trail. These are the free-agent crop's most attractive and available players, and this is where our crystal ball says they're going.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Playing in his 15th season at age 33, LeBron James might be playing the best basketball of his legendary career. At the very least, the four-time MVP is threatening to spoil Father Time's perfect record.
"He's continued to prove everybody wrong and find new levels," banana-boat buddy Dwyane Wade said recently. "In his 15th season, to be 33 years of age and to be playing the way he's playing, as consistent as he's playing, that is as impressive as anything that anybody has ever done."
If your only exposure to the 2017-18 season was Wade's quote, you'd assume James' club was an overwhelming favorite to take the title. The Cleveland Cavaliers don't resemble anything close to that.
They are 10 games out of first in the Eastern Conference and seven back of second. More worrisome, though, is that they're only a half-game up on the fourth seed and one game away from losing home-court advantage in the opening round.
The Cavs don't look elite in anything other than employing James. They sit 15th in net rating and are tied for second-worst on defense. They still haven't replaced Kyrie Irving or figured out how to get Kevin Love back to his old superstar level. They're so dependent on James, he actually leads the Association in total minutes. No one else in the top 10 is older than 29.
James needs more help, and the easiest way to get it would be changing locales. While his list of potential destinations includes the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets, it's the rising Philadelphia 76ers who should hold the most appeal.
Go to Philly, and there's a 24-year-old All-Star running mate in Joel Embiid. There's also the potential Rookie of the Year in Ben Simmons, who shares the same agent with James (Rich Paul). There's this year's No. 1 pick Markelle Fultz, who has 15 assists against one turnover during the two games he's played after returning from a five-month absence with a shoulder injury.
James wouldn't get dinged for joining a readymade contender like he would in Houston, even though Philly looks ferocious of late (14-5 with a plus-8.6 net rating since the All-Star break). He also wouldn't have to do as much heavy lifting as he would in L.A. (or has been in Cleveland), and he could still help revitalize a storied organization.
"Think about this if he decided to play for the Sixers, a proud franchise with history (Julius Erving, Wilt Chamberlain, Allen Iverson, Moses Malone) and a passionate fanbase: The Sixers have won three titles but not one since 1983, and James would help revive the franchise, possibly bringing the Sixers another NBA title," Sam Amick and Jeff Zillgitt wrote for USA Today.
Prediction: James joins The Process and signs with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Paul George, Oklahoma City Thunder
This might be an oversimplification, but it feels like there are only two possible outcomes to Paul George's free agency—re-signing with the Oklahoma City Thunder or bolting for his hometown Lakers.
It's hard getting a read on his situation.
The Thunder have largely played to expectations this season. In other words, they haven't erupted to the point of making his return a no-brainer or flopped badly enough to force him out the door. They look more like a good team than a great one (eighth in net rating), but Russell Westbrook provides the star presence the Lakers lack.
While he's not often mentioned near the front of the MVP race, the reigning winner is 0.3 rebounds per game shy of averaging a triple-double again (25.4 points, 10.2 assists, 9.7 boards). He has also impressed George as both a teammate and a leader.
"Russ is the reason why this decision is becoming even more easier to make, is the character Russ [has]," George said, via ESPN.com's Royce Young. "A stand-up guy, and he has his teammates' back."
If George wanted to convince himself OKC has a championship ceiling, it wouldn't be hard. Before dynamic defender Andre Roberson went down, this starting five boasted an elite plus-14.2 net rating, the fourth-best mark among the 32 lineups to log 250-plus minutes.
Unless L.A. lures in a second superstar—James is the preferred choice, but we see him going elsewhere—George can't see the same ceiling there. The Lakers are one defeat away from recording their fifth consecutive losing season. Their youngsters have shown flashes of promise, but none are guaranteed stardom.
Assuming George makes this a basketball decision—and assuming James picks anywhere other than L.A.—this might be an easier call than expected. Besides, as long as he doesn't lock himself into a long-term deal with OKC, the window to L.A. looks unlikely to close.
Prediction: George signs a short deal to stay in Oklahoma City.
Statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com.
