NBA MVP Is James Harden's to Lose, but Who Else Actually Belongs in the Debate?
If not James Harden, then who?
Feel free to plead the fifth. Harden is, after all, the NBA's overwhelming favorite to win the Maurice Podoloff Trophy. Basketball Reference's MVP probability tracker gives him a 65.2 percent chance of earning the honor, with his next closest competitor, Stephen Curry, merely at 9.4 percent.
This year's race hasn't always felt that lopsided. So many other names have been thrown into the ring that they have given the appearance of a wide-open field.
Giannis Antetokounmpo was billed as the favorite to start the season. Curry and Kevin Durant take turns cornering MVP consideration depending on the week. Damian Lillard has supernova'd his way into the most-valuable-baller discourse. LeBron James is still doing things. Anthony Davis would like us to remember he's here, too.
This sheer variety of candidates, along with a constantly shuffling pecking order, works in Harden's favor. In the season-long tug of war over our affections, his grasp on the public's attention span has seldom wavered. And though MVP hopefuls are not held to any official qualifications, he checks all of the most popular boxes.
Best player on the best team (for now)? Check. Absurd stat lines? Only if you consider 30.9 points and 8.9 assists per game on the second-highest true shooting percentage of his career absurd. (You should.)
Anecdotal props? Check again. Harden helped the Houston Rockets navigate an early-season absence from Chris Paul. He's also placing in the 81st percentile of isolation defense and 92nd percentile of post-up pestering.
Indispensable to his team's cause? Check. The Rockets are a net plus without Harden on the court, but most of those minutes come while Paul is running the show. They're getting outscored by nearly four points per 100 possessions when neither star plays, according to Cleaning The Glass.
Herein lies the potential wrench in Harden's otherwise airtight resume: Superstars who play beside other superstars run the risk of diluted arguments. Harden's situation feels different. He's finished second in the MVP balloting in two of the past three years. This distinction feels overdue.
And yet, his ostensibly cushy gig, coupled with anecdotal boons elsewhere, allows for an 11th-hour deviation from the current consensus. If he doesn't win, it's because one of these Beard-chasers did.
6. Jimmy Butler, Minnesota Timberwolves
Missing time on the heels of right knee surgery—some nerve, right?—will cost Jimmy Butler whatever MVP goodwill he has stored in the bank.
Unless, of course, it enhances his case.
Which it might.
Take a look at the net-rating impact for some of the NBA's top stars:
Butler checks in at third among these 36 players. That's...something. Not an end-all and be-all. But something.
He alone holds the key to the Minnesota Timberwolves' playoff hopes. They were competing for the Western Conference's No. 3 seed with him in the fold. They're now no longer locks to even make the postseason—despite remaining within relative proximity of that top-three berth.
Karl-Anthony Towns' cameo in the above standings doesn't carry much cachet. His inclusion is more of a mirage—the direct result of spending so much time beside Butler. Minnesota is a net negative when Towns runs solo.
Should Butler's four-to-six-week recovery schedule hold true, he will return to the Timberwolves just before the end of the regular season. Getting shelved for a long(ish) stretch will be harsh on these MVP vibes, but the exact timing of his return will determine whether they end a 13-year postseason drought.
5. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard is more than his midseason surge.
Recent eruptions matter. They're pillars for his entry into this dialogue. He's averaging 29.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 6.6 assists over his past 25 outings while slashing 48.3/40.1/88.5.
Lillard has been even more unreal in the clutch during this span. Eleven of the Portland Trail Blazers' games have entered the final five minutes with neither side leading or trailing by more than five points. Lillard is shooting 57.1 percent (12 of 21) in these situations.
"Damian Lillard is special," head coach Terry Stotts said after Monday's win over the Los Angeles Lakers, per USA Today's A.J. Neuharth-Keusch. "If it's not obvious, I'll say it."
Stotts shouldn't need to say it. At the same time, Lillard's value isn't a known commodity. Not entirely. His detonative stretch, plus the Blazers' fresh hold on the Western Conference's No. 3 seed, has dragged him onto center stage. But his complete body of work, from start to finish, allows his case to exist at all.
Lillard has spent most of this season in an unconscious state. He's tallying his best true shooting percentage amid career-high volume from three-point range and the foul line. He's averaging 1.07 points per isolation possession, the fourth-best mark among players to burn through at least 100 such touches. His one-on-one defense is better than ever.
This is the best iteration of Lillard the Blazers have seen, bar none, and it shows. According to NBA Math's total points added, in fact, he grades out as this year's sixth-most valuable player—not strictly among point guards, but in the entire league.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Russell Westbrook laid the blueprint for modern-day stars from mediocre teams to snag MVP dap. Giannis Antetokounmpo should be happy he did.
The Milwaukee Bucks are too mediocre for him to be placed any higher. Westbrook's Oklahoma City Thunder defied expectations to some degree in their first year without Kevin Durant. The Bucks added a big-ticket talent, Eric Bledsoe, in November and are on track to win one more game (43) than last season (42).
Antetokounmpo is responsible for exactly negative-1 jillion percent of unmet expectations. Yes, the persisting absence of a jumper complicates Milwaukee's offense—particularly down the stretch of close games. He's a non-threat when he's in stationary stances off the ball, and defenses are happy to let him pull up from the perimeter.
That he's third on the Bucks in crunch-time shot attempts is a genuine concern. He's shooting over 60 percent in these situations, but his volume compared to Bledsoe and Khris Middleton implies a certain neutralization unbecoming of a top-five star.
Still, Antetokounmpo can only do so much for a top-heavy team that has battled key injuries, former head coach Jason Kidd's wonky defensive schemes and interim head coach Joe Prunty's affinity for playing 85-year-old Jason Terry in the clutch over, say, Tony Snell. (OK, it turns out Terry is only 40, but still...)
Milwaukee's net rating with Antetokounmpo (plus-4.4) is better than that of the Boston Celtics (plus-4.3). That holds clouts. He's also posting stat lines unobtainable even for most video-gamers.
Decades from now, children won't believe the elders when they tell them someone cleared averages of 27.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per game while guarding every position, using two dribbles to go the length of the court and making all of this somehow seem routine.
3. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
LeBron James has a high opinion of his 2017-18 campaign.
"Probably an all-time high," he told ESPN's Cassidy Hubbarth after dropping 39 points in Wednesday's win over the Denver Nuggets (via ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin). "Just because of my body, my mind, the way I go out and approach the game. And then, just the grace of God, giving me the ability to do this."
Certain metrics disagree.
The Cleveland Cavaliers, for instance, have a better point differential per 100 possessions when James is on the bench. That doesn't destroy his MVP credentials. It also shouldn't happen, regardless of the sample size.
But this blip speaks to the ineffectiveness of Cleveland's most-used lineups—specifically their shoddy defense. James is part of their at-times nonexistent interest in getting back after missed shots, and the half-court communication doesn't look much better with him on the court. He's not solely responsible for these transgressions. The Cavaliers are short on stoppers in general, and he's making better reads when playing alongside the always-engaged Larry Nance Jr.
Consider this a roundabout way of saying Cleveland is not actually better without James. Not even kind of. Not even sort of.
And James, for his part, is piecing together an epic season. His nine assists per game are a personal high. He's notching the third-best true shooting percentage of his career. He looks comfortable pulling up from outside; he's canning a higher percentage of his stop-and-pop threes than Kevin Durant. His player efficiency rating has not been this high since 2013-14, when he was still a member of the Miami Heat.
Players working through their 15th season, at the age of 33, shouldn't be this good. They definitely shouldn't be able to stuff like this, seemingly on command:
James remains the best basketball player alive. And if the Cavaliers decidedly work themselves out from under their on-again, off-again funk by season's end, he'll deserve the MVP attention incumbent of that crown.
2. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Every so often a large swath of basketball fans and pundits needs to be reminded that Stephen Curry remains the Warriors' most important player.
This is that reminder.
Curry is somewhat quietly piecing together a ridiculous season. He's upped his scoring while averaging fewer minutes, and as ESPN.com's Zach Lowe pointed out, he's never been more efficient:
Think about that for a minute. Curry's 2015-16 rampage is viewed as the best individual offensive effort of all time. Upstaging that season's efficiency without seeing his usage plummet is completely, totally, wholly unfair.
Kevin Durant fans will now sing their "Why do you hate my favorite player?" song. That's fine. Their dulcet gripes will be taken under advisement by straw men and clouds.
Durant is spectacular. He's the better individual player. His defense has dropped off in recent weeks, but he's still an asset. He has the foot speed and IQ to tussle with the NBA's top wings, including James, and the length and last-second awareness to contest shots around the basket like a center. Draymond Green is Golden State's only player to guard more isolations or challenge more point-blank looks.
That doesn't make him the Warriors' most valuable cornerstone. Indispensability has to be a part of this discussion. The mere concept of Curry manipulates opposing defensive approaches. He doesn't have to make shots. He doesn't even need to technically shoot. He just has to be on the floor, and the threat of his limitless range takes care of the rest.
Digging deeper into Golden State's on/off splits backs this up. As Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey showed:
Taking this one step further, the Warriors are a plus-15 in the 146 minutes Durant has played without Curry, Green and Klay Thompson. Turn the tables, with Curry logging 49 minutes as the lone wolf, and they're a plus-22.
Like everyone else on this list, Curry will cede votes to Harden's superhumanness. But if the Warriors overthrow the Rockets for the NBA's best record, things could get interesting.
1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Welcome to another round of "Name that version of Anthony Davis!"
Player A is Anthony Davis prior to DeMarcus Cousins' season-ending injury. Player B is Anthony Davis since then.
Most are inclined to use the New Orleans Pelicans' rise post-Cousins injury to anchor Davis' MVP credentials. Let's not do that. He's averaging 28.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.2 blocks for the year on watermark efficiency that comes amid near-career usage. His production is objectively alien, irrespective of how it gets broken down.
Sure, the winning helps. The Pelicans haven't lost in nearly a month and are a half-game back of the West's No. 3 seed. To reach this point after losing a top-15 player is the stuff of legend. But pandering to recency bias does a disservice to both Davis—who is day-to-day with a left ankle sprain—and the team.
New Orleans is staying afloat without either of its two stars. Jrue Holiday is leading hypereffective lineups by himself since Cousins went down. Emeka Okafor is reborn, almost literally. Nikola Mirotic is regaining his offensive feel. E'Twaun Moore remains underrated at both ends.
More than one player is responsible for the Pelicans' survival instincts. Davis is their everything. That was true before Cousins' Achilles injury. But New Orleans is now being forced to find itself outside of its everything. Davis' MVP case cannot be built predominantly upon this stretch when it overlaps with his team's successful self-exploration.
Mostly, though, mythologizing his current form downplays the previous one. He has been subsisting on across-the-board greatness all year, not just over a specific span.
What he's doing now is a continuation of everything he's done all along—dominate at an MVP level.
Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, ESPN or Basketball Reference and accurate leading into games on March 9.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
