Super Bowl Odds 2018: MVP, Props List and Eagles vs. Patriots Picks

Zach BuckleyFeb 3, 2018

History likes the New England Patriots' chances of prevailing over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII Sunday, and Las Vegas agrees.

The five-time champion Patriots are 4.5-point favorites over the Super Bowl-less Eagles, per OddsShark. New England opened as a 6-point favorite, though, so some bettors are backing a Philadelphia team that has been the underdog in each of its playoff contests and without starting quarterback Carson Wentz since mid-December because of a torn ACL.

Super Bowl gamblers have far more wagering options at their disposal. We will dissect many of them here, with a special focus on the MVP candidates, some of the more colorful prop bets and our predictions on the game itself.

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Super Bowl MVP Odds

Offense dominates the Super Bowl MVP award. More specifically, quarterbacks dominate this award, with 28 honors—or 21 more than any other position (seven running backs have won the prize).

Even more specifically, Tom Brady dominates this award. He's already the record-holder, with four selections, and he is an overwhelming favorite to claim his fifth Sunday, per OddsShark.

Tom Brady minus-110
Nick Foles plus-325
Rob Gronkowski plus-900
Dion Lewis plus-1800
Danny Amendola plus-1,800
Jay Ajayi plus-1,800
Zach Ertz plus-2,000
Alshon Jeffery plus-2,200
Brandin Cooks plus-2,200

Brady might not offer the greatest value given you have to wager $110 on him in order to win $100, but there are reasons he's so far separated from the field.

His average Super Bowl stat line features 29.6 completions on 67 percent passing, 295.9 yards and 2.1 touchdowns. Among this season's full-time starters, no one averaged that many yards (Brady himself was closest, with 286.1) and only two teams had a completion percentage of 67 or more (the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings).

Those numbers also don't reflect Brady's recent play, both on this stage and in these playoffs. Over his past two Super Bowl starts, he's averaged 40 completions at a 71.4 percent clip, 397 yards and three scores. His two-game stampede through the AFC side of the bracket included 61 completions on 91 attempts, 627 yards and five touchdowns without an interception.

"He's a Hall of Fame quarterback," Eagles coach Doug Pederson said, per NFL.com's Jeremy Bergman. "He's got great vision. He gets the ball out of his hands extremely quick."

Moving on from Brady, Nick Foles is the next-likeliest MVP by virtue of his position. His injury-replacement narrative should resonate with voters, and he has played at an award-winning level this postseason.

Like Brady, Foles doesn't have an interception on his playoff stat sheet. What he does have are 49 completions (and only 14 misfires), 598 yards and three touchdowns. New England's defense is beatable by the pass (30th in yards against during the regular season) and allowed 293 yards to Blake Bortles in the AFC Championship Game.

Those passing opportunities could make Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery interesting value bets. Ertz had at least eight catches and 81 yards in two of his past four outings, while Jeffery—Philly's season-leader with nine touchdown receptions—is coming off an 85-yard, two-score performance.

Props List

While you can gamble on just about anything tangentially related to the contest, these are our five favorite selections from the exotic prop bet list.

How Many Times Will Janet Jackson Be Mentioned During the Broadcast?

Over 1.5 plus-200
Under 1.5 minus-300

If you play a word association game using Justin Timberlake and Super Bowl halftime, how long will it be before Janet Jackson gets mentioned? If she's not first, she's probably a close second behind wardrobe malfunction (or third behind that and nipplegate).

But don't let that or the temptation to double up fool you into taking the over. NBC will keep that performance as far away as possible from this one, maybe mentioning Jackson once for the sake of thoroughness but otherwise not willfully discussing nipples during this global spectacle.

How Many Times Will Tom Brady's Age Be Mentioned During the Broadcast?

Over 5 minus-150
Under 5 plus-110

Five feels like a ton of times to mention the same thing in one broadcast. But look at the line—oddsmakers feel it's likely to be referenced more than five times.

And it should be. Maybe by a lot. What Brady is doing at 40 seems almost impossible. It's wild enough he will become the oldest non-kicker to play in an NFL title game. But the fact he's the biggest driving force behind his team in this game boggles the mind.

He was the league-leader with 4,577 passing yards this season. This was his 18th year under center. That's worth discussing at least five times during the game, especially if he's the biggest story—for better or worse.

How Many Times Will Carson Wentz Be Mentioned During the Broadcast?

Over 3.5 minus-250
Under 3.5 plus-170

Outside of Brady's age-less play, is there a bigger story than Philadelphia's response to the loss of perhaps the MVP front-runner? Between dissecting what Wentz was doing (33 touchdown passes against just seven picks) and how the Eagles have reacted, plus looking ahead at how Wentz's return affects Foles' future, the path to four-plus mentions feels rock solid.

Will Terrell Owens Be Mentioned During the Broadcast?

Yes minus-160
No plus-120

One mention is all it takes? Put the farm on yes. If Terrell Owens' superhuman effort at Super Bowl XXXIX doesn't warrant some kind of discussion—nine catches for 122 yards coming off a broken leg and torn ankle ligament—then his Hall of Fame selection or snub should.

Will Tom Brady's Jersey Be Stolen Again?

Yes plus-1,000

Oddsmakers are the greatest. What an awesome wager to take, especially when it's juiced by high enough odds to attract some level of interest.

But no, there's zero chance Brady's jersey gets swiped for a second straight year. Security will be heightened because of last year's incident, and the quarterback himself isn't taking any chances.

"I am taking it with me, man—if we win," Brady said, per Henry McKenna of Patriots Wire. "If we lose, I am throwing it in the garbage, and if we win, I am taking it. So hopefully we win."

Patriots vs. Eagles Picks

Overthinking can be a critical sin when gambling or analyzing. There are so many elements of this game to dissect. But at the end of the day, one team has Brady taking snaps and the other has Foles. One is a surefire Hall of Famer; the other might be the NFL's best backup.

Even if New England's defense leaks a bit, it won't be enough for Philly. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is a master at eliminating first options. So whether he focuses on corralling Jay Ajayi or containing Ertz and Jeffery, the Eagles will have to turn to Plans B, C and D.

As long as Brady stays upright more often than not, he will steer his team to a victory and himself to the MVP award.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Eagles 20

Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady