10 Burning Questions Ahead of Warriors-Cavs Monday Showdown
The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers will do battle for the final time in the 2017-18 regular season, the last possible preview of a potential NBA Finals four-peat.
The Warriors defeated the Cavs 99-92 on Christmas Day, but it hardly carried the magnitude of what Martin Luther King Jr. day is about to bring is.
Two of the four most important players currently engulfed in this rivalry, Stephen Curry and Isaiah Thomas, didn't suit up in the first meeting due to injury. Both are expected to play Monday. Barring trades, both teams will go in with mostly complete, healthy rosters that could reflect the personnel representing the 2018 NBA Finals.
In terms of regular-season January games, this is big. Big because both teams are once again the favorites to reach the Finals. Big because of the Warriors' recent dominance (winners of six of the previous seven meetings) and because of the implications failing to beat Golden State may have on LeBron James' impending free agency.
With June still five months away, here's what this newest installment of Cavs-Warriors means and what questions it can answer moving forward.
1. Can Kevin Love repeat his Christmas Day dominance?
Love has faced the Warriors 18 times since he joined the Cavs in 2014 and easily put up his best performance against them Dec. 25.
Love's move from power forward to center appeared to pay off, as he led both teams with 31 points and 18 rebounds. The Warriors elected to start rookie Jordan Bell rather than veteran Zaza Pachulia on him, choosing Bell's athleticism knowing he'd have to chase Love out to the three-point line. In the past, the Warriors would use Pachulia to begin games on Tristan Thompson, and Draymond Green would draw Love.
Love was able to get position on Bell in the paint for some easy baskets, but most of his damage was done at the three-point line. Love was 6-of-11 from three and just 3-of-13 from inside the paint. The Warriors had Green and Durant help when Love got Bell one-on-one inside, challenging shots and even collecting a few blocks.
Love needs to do a better job of recognizing when help comes and pass out to an open teammate. Too often he forced attempts inside, a recipe for disaster against Durant and Green, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.
Cleveland did a good job using Love and James in the pick-and-pop and having Love trail on the fast break for some open threes. When he makes three or more three-pointers against Golden State, the Cavs are 3-2. In games he makes two or fewer, Cleveland is just 3-10.
Keeping Love at center and using him to space the floor on offense is key.
2. Does pace of play matter?
The playing style between the two teams is vastly different and is based off both personnel and age.
Cleveland is the oldest team in the NBA (30.1 average age). Despite head coach Tyronn Lue's constant cry to "play with pace," the Cavs seem perfectly content to walk the ball up the court and let James dissect a defense in the half court. They're 16th overall in possessions per 48 minutes (99.14) and average fewer possessions in wins (98.78) than losses (99.71).
The Warriors are the opposite. They love to run off opponent misses, letting Durant get to the rack or spraying out shooters while the defense scrambles to match up. Golden State is third overall in pace this season (102.37 possessions per 48 minutes) and unlike Cleveland averages more possessions in wins (102.78) than losses (100.77).
Consider this: In the Christmas Day game, the Warriors only shot 27.0 percent from deep, a far cry from their league-leading 38.9 percent success rate.
So how did they still take down Cleveland without an outside attack? A 33-9 advantage in fast-break points certainly helped, as Golden State looked to push the tempo as much as possible.
Cleveland, along with nearly every other NBA team, can't run with the Warriors. The Cavs need to slow the game down as much as possible, as they did in the 2015 NBA Finals when pushing Golden State to six games without Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love.
Pace of play matters between these two very different styles of teams.
3. Can Isaiah Thomas replicate Kyrie Irving's offense?
This will be Thomas' first appearance against the Warriors as a member of the Cavs, and it couldn't have come at a worse time.
Thomas is struggling terribly, going just 5-of-26 (19.2 percent) and 1-of-11 from deep (9.1 percent) over his last two games as he works himself back from a hip injury. He's played in just four total games this season.
"I knew it was going be be like this," Thomas said Sunday, per Daryl Ruiter of 92.3 The Fan. "I have no legs, so it's gonna take some time for me to get back. Even when I played well those first two games, I told coach [Tyronn] Lue it didn't feel right. It was kinda fools gold. Shots were just going in, but none of my movements, none of the things I usually do, felt normal."
Thomas is still on a minutes restriction and unable to play in back-to-backs. He estimates it will take 15 to 20 games to get back to feeling like himself.
That's a bad sign for Cleveland, which needs him to fill the hole left by Irving at point guard. For all of Irving's faults, he was largely brilliant against Golden State, averaging 27.3 points in the 2016 Finals win and 29.4 points in the 2017 Finals loss.
Now with a better supporting cast, the Cavaliers don't need quite this much from Thomas, but he does need to be able to take scoring pressure off James as the No. 2 option.
We won't see prime Isaiah this time, but how the Cavs use him and stagger lineups with him and James could give us a peak into their future plans.
4. How do Cavs counter the Warriors' death lineup?
The Warriors' small-ball supreme five-man unit of Curry, Durant, Green, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala has been a problem for Cleveland for years, dating back to when Harrison Barnes was in Durant's spot.
Playing these five meant the Cavs had to bench one of their bigs, either Love or Thompson, and slide James down to power forward while expanding the backcourt. This left them with an open guard spot to fill while forcing the Cavaliers to bench one of its best players.
Finally, Cleveland may have an answer.
The Warriors' death lineup, in part due to limited minutes with injuries to Curry and Durant, has appeared mortal this season. In 58 minutes together, they have an abysmal net rating of minus-8.6. They've shot just 42.3 percent as a unit, including 32.2 percent from three.
Cleveland's best lineup this season has been the combination of James, Love, J.R. Smith, Dwyane Wade and Kyle Korver. In 42 minutes together, they post a net rating of plus-35.7, the fourth-highest rating of any five-man unit in the NBA.
With Thomas just getting his rhythm back and Jae Crowder struggling, look for Cleveland to go to this lineup if Golden State goes small.
5. Can Warriors capitalize with LeBron on the bench?
The 2017 Finals was lopsided, with Cleveland managing just one win in the series as Golden State captured its second title in three years.
In five games, the Cavs were outscored by 34 combined points. In the minutes James was on the floor, however, Cleveland trailed by only seven.
At no point was James' importance more obvious than in Game 3. In James' 45 minutes and 37 seconds, the Cavs were a plus-seven. In the two minutes and 23 seconds he sat, Cleveland was minus-12. The Cavaliers lost 118-113, putting them in an insurmountable 3-0 hole.
James' move to the bench was like tossing a bucket of chum onto the court, turning the Warriors into hungry sharks swarming in for a feast.
The same could still hold true now.
Although James actually carries a negative on/off rating this season (minus-1.2), no one's believing the Cavs are better without him. Cleveland was outscored by just one point in the 99-92 Christmas Day loss when James was on the floor. The bench, however, was minus-28 combined.
Golden State has to turn up the intensity whenever James sits, knowing how vulnerable the Cavs have previously been.
6. Will the Cavaliers actually be interested?
Sounds like a weird question to ask, but it's one we keep coming back to watching this team play in January.
Cleveland comes in having lost three straight games and seven of its last nine. Defense has once again become optional, and Lue even suggested some players are more interested in personal agendas.
Not a great kickoff to facing Golden State.
As Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com notes, nobody is in panic mode...yet.
"Smith said he believes the Cavs are 'fine' and will eventually pull together because of James and of players with rings and playoff experience on Cleveland's deep roster. But he said now is the time for the Cavs to be working on themselves, instead of any one opponent, because of the newness of Thomas in the lineup and other players coming and going due to injury and rest."
While Cleveland has struggled in winter before cruising through the East come playoff time, one would have hoped the beatdown in last years' Finals would have inspired a better effort during the regular season. At least when facing Golden State.
Yes, the Cavs are working Thomas into the rotation and have plenty of work to do on themselves first, but this opportunity to test their best against the Warriors should not be wasted with a poor effort.
7. How does this game impact the trade deadline for both teams?
For the Warriors, it's hard to envision any outcome making them adjust their trade-deadline plans.
They are nearly complete in all areas when it comes to star power, shooters, defenders, athleticism, IQ, experience, cooking, juggling and karaoke singing. They can be corny at times, but this is still one of the best and deepest rosters in NBA history. A small tweak is possible, but there's not going to be any major roster shakeup based off this game.
For the Cavaliers, another devastating beatdown could spark some changes.
Cleveland pushed for Paul George in the offseason, per ESPN's Jackie MacMullan, knowing his ability to both score from and defend the wing would be a perfect fit against Golden State. While the Oklahoma City Thunder aren't likely to trade George, the Cavs do have some attractive pieces (Russell Westbrook's college teammate, Love, or the Brooklyn Nets' first-round pick) they could send back.
The Cavs don't want to deal the Nets' pick, nearly guaranteed to fall in the Top 10. As one general manager told Sean Deveney of the Sporting News: "They would be open to a deal by all indications. But they're not talking about that pick. That's the Plan B for the LeBron stuff, and from what I know, they don't want to budge on it."
Cleveland is expected to be active at the trade deadline using its own 2018 or 2021 first-round picks. Yet another loss to Golden State could lead to more desperation and cause the Cavs to rethink keeping that Nets pick.
8. Which players crack a Finals rotation?
Starting lineups aside, which players will see time in a tight NBA Finals rotation?
Golden State played 10 players a total of 30 minutes or more in last year's Finals, going with a bench of Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, David West, Ian Clark and Patrick McCaw. Cleveland played only nine as much, countering with Richard Jefferson, Kyle Korver, Iman Shumpert and Deron Williams.
Both benches have only gotten better.
The Warriors retain Iguodala, one of the best defenders of James in the league. Of course, he won the 2015 Finals MVP over Curry, Thompson, Green and Barnes, despite not even starting all six games. He's a lock for big minutes in this year's version as well.
Livingston and West are both in. Joining them will be a fight between Nick Young, former Cavalier Omri Casspi and McCaw. If head coach Steve Kerr sticks with Bell at center, regular starter Pachulia may be out of the rotation.
For Cleveland, Wade, Korver and Jeff Green are all must-plays. Thompson struggled mightily in last year's Finals (5.6 points and 5.8 rebounds in 26.4 minutes) but should see time as well. That leaves Derrick Rose, Shumpert and Cedi Osman scrapping for time. Jose Calderon is a possibility as well.
Osman is the wild card here. The rookie from Turkey has been seeing regular rotation minutes of late and is used to defend opposing point guards. If Thomas gets benched early for not being able to stay with Curry, look to see if Lue elects for Osman over Calderon.
9. Who guards Kevin Durant?
This was arguably the Cavs' biggest issue in the 2017 Finals. They were short on long, athletic bodies who could even limit Durant's offensive impact.
The first assignment went to James, who was also in charge of leading the team in scoring and serving as the unofficial point guard. Smith and Shumpert were too short, and Lue refused to dust off Derrick Williams in the playoffs.
The Cavs were stuck with James or 36-year-old Richard Jefferson, who they went to in spurts to help lessen the burden on James.
"It takes pressure off of Bron. If I don't score a point and I make it difficult on [Durant] for 20 minutes, then it's a successful night," Jefferson told Jason Lloyd of The Athletic at the time. "But to make Bron be in that position and say, 'We need you to guard maybe the second-best scorer on the planet and then we need you to facilitate everybody and go get 10 or 12 assists and we need you to go score 30?' It's unfair. It's unfair."
While Cleveland doesn't possess any "Durant stoppers" (does anyone?), the Cavs do have a better array of options than they did last June.
James, Crowder and Green all took turns on Durant on Christmas. Together they did a respectable job, holding Durant to 8-of-19 shooting (42 percent) and 3-of-9 (33 percent) from deep.
Look for the Cavaliers to begin the game with Crowder on Durant, while James slides down to guard the less dangerous Green. Overall, it should be defense by committee, all while trying to keep James off Durant for as long as possible.
10. Will this impact LeBron's future?
This game in a vacuum will not decide where James signs this offseason. It may, however, begin to plant seeds of doubt.
In a perfect world, the Cavaliers would provide James a roster to complement his skills and match up with the Warriors. He could ignore free agency, stay in his hometown and watch his sons play high school basketball at his alma mater surrounded by local family and friends.
Of course, if he feels Cleveland has hit a wall with the Warriors and he can no longer win titles there, nothing else will matter.
Win this game, and confidence should blossom inside the Cavaliers' locker room. Lose for the eighth time in 10 games, including seven of eight against the Warriors, and things could get ugly fast.
A victory will be tough to come by for the Cavs, given their recent poor play and the fact they're coming off a season-long 11-day road trip. A win will do far more for the Cavaliers than the Warriors, who sit at an NBA-best 35-9.
For James to stay in Northeast Ohio past this season, he has to believe this team can take down Golden State. A victory Monday would be a good start.
Greg Swartz is the Cleveland Cavaliers lead writer for Bleacher Report. Stats provided by NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
