Breaking Down Oakland Raiders' Most Troubling Trends
After a crushing 20-17 defeat to the Dallas Cowboys and playoff hopes realistically flushed down the toilet, it's time to examine the Oakland Raiders' 2017 season. How did the Silver and Black reach this point—from AFC contender to sub-.500 team without an identity?
It seems like a lost year, but the organization from top to bottom will have learned multiple lessons. First, the window of opportunity in the NFL could close quickly. Secondly, suitable coordinators matter just as much as the head coach. Finally, negligible miscues become glaring voids when unchecked.
One person doesn't shoulder all the blame for a disappointing season that started with Super Bowl-contending aspirations. Several individuals have contributed to troubling trends that plagued the year.
Where do the issues start? How can the Raiders address their faults to avoid further disappointment? Let's delve into what went wrong in 2017.
AC/DC Regression
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Typically, a tandem improves as a pair over time. Unfortunately, we saw the exact opposite from quarterback Derek Carr and wideout Amari Cooper. Both individuals contributed to the slight disruption in the AC/DC connection.
Cooper's drop issues resurfaced, and he's going to finish another season with minimal impact down the stretch. When viewing his production over three campaigns, he's faded late in the year due to injury or opponents shifting coverage toward him in an effort to limit explosive plays.
After recovering from a broken leg, Carr's ball placement has been off the mark. At times, he's put receivers in position for big hits. In October, head coach Jack Del Rio also felt the starting quarterback accounted for pocket pressure that didn't exist, per San Francisco Chronicle reporter Matt Kawahara:
"Derek is one of the best in the league at making quick decisions, getting the ball out of his hands...there were some occasions [vs. the Buffalo Bills] where we looked at the film and he looks at it and says, ‘I had more time. I wasn't under duress. I had more time to scan the field and take some of the shots that we had designed to take."
When looking at the film, Carr looks a bit frantic in the pocket during a few games, especially after he's been sacked a few times. Mentally, the Raiders signal-caller may have to block out the phantom footsteps echoing between his ears. Cooper must work on his concentration drops going into his fourth year.
The quarterback-wide receiver tandem should spend extra time together during the offseason. As a crisp route-runner, there's no reason Cooper can't dominate when synchronized with his quarterback in the passing attack.
Delayed Offensive Production
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The AC/DC connection issues contributed to the Raiders' overall offensive inefficiencies. Nonetheless, this troubling pattern came up during the previous season, which led to seven fourth-quarter comeback victories. This year, Oakland doesn't have the continuity to overcome slow starts.
In the two previous contests, the Raiders offense came out flat. Oakland didn't score until the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 and went scoreless for a half at home versus the Dallas Cowboys in the following matchup.
Even without Cooper on the field or hobbled with an injury, it's mind-blowing this unit can't score early against bottom-half ranked defenses.
Todd Downing will ultimately take the fall for the shortcomings. After watching this team field a top-10 scoring offense in the previous year, Del Rio will likely fire the young offensive coordinator to prevent losing his job.
It's been said many times: This team has more than enough weapons to consistently move the chains. The Silver and Black rank 22nd in scoring and first downs through 14 games.
Defensive Struggles on Third Down
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Here's another trend that significantly hurt the team until defensive coordinator John Pagano took over play-calling duties. Without the takeaways, the defense became a sitting target for just about every quarterback in the league.
According to Team Rankings, opposing offenses converted on 38.50 percent of third downs against Oakland in 2016. This year, that percentage rose to 42.55. When highlighting the last three games, that number falls to 32.43.
As mentioned, takeaways helped the defense in the previous campaign. However, when the ball doesn't bounce in the Raiders' favor, it's a unit that is susceptible to giving up scores on long drives. Fortunately, this area has improved with Pagano dialing up the pocket pressure, which has resulted in turnovers as witnessed against the Cowboys.
Assuming Del Rio keeps his defensive play-caller, opposition third-down conversions should hover around 33 percent, which is a good rate if the unit doesn't constantly give up first downs early in the sequence.
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Highly Questionable Defensive Personnel Decisions
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It's frustrating to see head-scratching personnel moves such as rookie safety Obi Melifonwu at cornerback matched against wideout Brandin Cooks with Tom Brady under center.
There's no way the coaching staff went through a whole week thinking that design would work against the New England Patriots, who have won Super Bowls exploiting their opponent's weakness.
In the previous outing, the coaching staff started Jihad Ward at defensive end over Denico Autry. The second-year player out of Illinois hasn't taken a live snap since Week 4. The fourth-year veteran lists third on the team in sacks with four and leads the defense with seven passes defensed.
Ward essentially filled in for Mario Edwards Jr., who didn't play due to an ankle injury. However, the Raiders left him on the field for 33 snaps compared to 21 for Autry.
The coaching staff may argue in favor of personnel matchups, but it's indefensible to leave an impact defender on the sideline to play a developing asset who fell out of the rotation three months ago.
The Silver and Black must find a way to put their best players on the field and in positions to succeed. On the contrary, Oakland has placed young talents in tough situations or limited their opportunities to flourish.
Failure to Adequately Address Inside Linebacker Position During Offseason
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When attempting to talk general manager Reggie McKenzie into addressing the inside linebacker position, it must feel like speaking to a brick wall. He's continuously neglected a critical spot on defense only to sign a player during the season to fill the role.
Why does it take five-to-seven weeks for McKenzie to realize he needs a quality inside linebacker who can close the communication gap between the secondary and front seven? More importantly, the Raiders need a versatile defender who can move into the box, track ball-carriers and drop back into short-area coverage.
Yet, McKenzie continues to settle for rookies who need extended time to develop in coverage duties, shifting outside linebackers inside or an older veteran player who's at the tail-end of his career.
The front office signed Perry Riley in the previous season and NaVorro Bowman prior to Week 7 this year. Both players excelled against the run, but neither offers a long-term solution at the position.
The former San Francisco 49er could stick around to groom the next linebacker behind him. In the meantime, how will the Raiders counter an offense that singles out the soon-to-be 30-year-old in coverage? It's a weak spot McKenzie should address during the offseason.
Organization's Resistance to Change What Doesn't Work
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As an operation, the Raiders react too slowly to underperforming personnel on the field and within the coaching staff.
We already highlighted McKenzie's delayed reaction to perpetual voids at the linebacker position. It took Del Rio two-and-a-half years to see Ken Norton Jr. couldn't elevate the defense. Reggie Nelson doesn't look anywhere close to his Pro Bowl form from previous years, but he's the unquestioned starter at free safety.
Someone needs to let the decision-makers in the building know it's OK to experiment with rational changes. This doesn't mean start a rookie safety at cornerback but easing rookie seventh-rounder Shalom Luani into the defensive game plan with Nelson losing a step seems reasonable.
When a tight end uses his size as an advantage over safety Karl Joseph, try rotating weak-side linebacker Nicholas Morrow over to take on the coverage assignment.
The coaching staff must add rational creativity to the weekly game plan. Fortunately, Pagano has implemented new ideas in the defensive play-calling, which resulted in 14 sacks and six takeaways in the last four games.
Oakland mistakenly let Bill Musgrave walk after a successful year but hesitated to part ways with a coordinator who remained in his position a bit too long. Both decisions have ultimately cost the Raiders a shot at returning to the postseason and the Lombardi Trophy.
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