What Will the Pittsburgh Steelers Look Like in 3 Years?
Few teams have been such a vision of stability as the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have had the same quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, since 2004, and the same head coach, Mike Tomlin, since 2007.
But every NFL team goes through changes every year, though some may be more subtle than others. Let's take what we know about the Steelers now and make some predictions about what the team will look like in three years.
The Steelers Will Have a New Starting QB
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During the 2017 offseason, Steelers starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger began dropping more than just hints that retirement could be around the corner. It started just after his team lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions, the New England Patriots, in the AFC Championship Game. And it continued well into the summer, as Roethlisberger reiterated that hanging up his cleats could come sooner rather than later.
Even if Roethlisberger does opt to return for the 2018 season, it's hard to imagine that he will still be there as the team's starting quarterback in three years' time. He's 35 years old, has suffered numerous injuries over the course of his career and has been to three Super Bowls, winning two.
Further, Roethlisberger is set to be an unrestricted free agent in 2020 based on his current contract structure. Putting all of those facts together with Roethlisberger's openness about being near the end of his career, it does not appear he'll be with the Steelers in three years.
Who will the quarterback be, then, in 2020? That is anyone's guess. It very well could be either Landry Jones or Joshua Dobbs, the two backups to Roethlisberger currently on the Steelers roster. It could be another veteran, or it could be a young player who is not even in the NFL at present. And by the time 2020 rolls around, the Steelers could be on their second post-Roethlisberger quarterback.
What does seem clear is that it won't be Roethlisberger under center for the Steelers three years from now.
Pittsburgh Will Have a Game-Changing Tight End
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Since Heath Miller retired following the 2015 season, the Steelers have been trying to find a tight end capable of taking his place as both a blocker and a receiver. Initially, that player was expected to be Jesse James, whom the Steelers selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. They also signed veteran Ladarius Green to pair with James in 2016; however, his injury history limited him to just one season in Pittsburgh and only six games played.
This year, James has been paired up with Vance McDonald, but the two have not managed to be major players in Pittsburgh's offense. James has caught only 20 passes for 193 yards and two scores, while McDonald has five catches for 79 yards and one touchdown. With the Steelers' having spent the past five years putting together one of the league's most explosive offenses, the tight end position has been the one glaring weakness.
But the Steelers will wise up over the course of the next three years, especially once they must face the retirement of Roethlisberger, which could come in just a few months. In order to continue to possess a threatening offense while navigating a quarterback change, the Steelers will need all the help they can get. This means making sure the tight end position is as in good shape as the receiving corps and the offensive line.
While the Steelers chose to ignore the tight end position entirely in the 2017 draft class, that trend cannot, and thus will not, continue in the years to come. By 2020, the Steelers should have solved this problem, likely by way of using a top draft resource to bolster the position.
Dominant Defense
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In the past five years, the Steelers' identity as a team has shifted from a bruising, quarterback-punishing defensive-minded squad to an explosive, high-scoring offensive team. But the signs are already in place that the Steelers are shifting back to being a defense-first team, and by 2020 that should again be the team's calling card.
With the Steelers likely fielding a young quarterback who will be learning on the job—much as Roethlisberger did at the start of his career—the Steelers will again have to lean on the defensive side of the ball in order to win games. And the foundation for that has already been built; outside linebackers Bud Dupree and T.J. Watt should remain the keys to the Steelers pass rush, while Ryan Shazier should still remain the anchor which holds that entire side of the ball together.
Though there will certainly be changes ahead for Pittsburgh's defense—one or both of Stephon Tuitt and Cameron Heyward could move on before 2020, and the secondary is likely to look quite different, particularly at safety—those changes might be made with an eye toward even better performance in mind.
Presently, Pittsburgh is second in the league in both yards and points allowed and has sacked opposing quarterbacks 29 times through nine games while boasting a front seven that is relatively young and has a lot of good football ahead of it. Though the Steelers may not financially be able to keep this group together three years from now, more strong defensive players added via the draft should at least keep the quality of performance high. And it will be up to them to carry the team while Pittsburgh's to-be-determined young quarterback becomes acclimated to professional-level football.
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Smith-Schuster, the New Antonio Brown
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Antonio Brown's breakout season, in 2011, was his second in the NFL. That year, he caught 69 passes on 124 targets for 1,108 yards and two scores. He averaged 69.3 yards per game and 16.1 yards per reception, though he was named a starter in just three games.
Rookie Steelers receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster appears headed for a similar season. Through nine games, he's caught 29 passes on 43 targets for 529 yards and five scores. He is averaging 18.0 yards per reception and 57.9 yards per game. And he's been a starter only three times thus far.
While Smith-Schuster's numbers aren't likely to rival those of Brown's 2011, it does appear that the Steelers have another star receiver on their hands. And by 2020—when Smith-Schuster will be just 24 years old—it is certainly possible that he will eclipse Brown's production and also allow the Steelers to move on from the expensive veteran.
Brown was given a four-year, $68 million extension in February and will have a cap hit of $15.1 million if he is still with the Steelers in 2020, per Spotrac. However, it will cost the team only $7.6 million to release him. Meanwhile, 2020 will be the final year of Smith-Schuster's rookie contract, with a cost to the Steelers of just over $1.3 million. The stage appears to be set for Smith-Schuster to see a major extension in 2020, with the money coming from the cap savings they get from moving on from Brown.
Brown is Pittsburgh's current leading receiver. But he's also 29 years old. If Smith-Schuster's production rises up to Brown-like levels and can stay there consistently, Pittsburgh will have no problem making Smith-Schuster the No. 1 wideout. Moving on from Brown will be tough—he'll likely finish his time in Pittsburgh as the Steelers' best all-time receiver—but it will also make financial and football sense granted that Smith-Schuster's stock continues to rise.
Mike Tomlin Will Still Be Head Coach
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Since 1969, the Steelers have had only three head coaches. Since 2007, it has been Mike Tomlin, who inherited a quarterback in Roethlisberger and an all-around Super Bowl-caliber roster from Bill Cowher, who helmed the team from 1992 until 2006. And there's no indication that Tomlin's time in Pittsburgh will end any time soon, regardless of what other changes befall the Steelers in the coming years.
Tomlin's regular-season record as a head coach is 110-59 and is 8-6 in the postseason. He's reached the playoffs seven times in 11 years (and appears headed for his eighth in 2017). His winning ways, combined with the Steelers' institutional unwillingness to make unnecessary coaching changes, practically guarantee Tomlin's job is safe and that moving on might be his own decision and not that of the Rooney family.
Though Pittsburgh may have a different quarterback in three years, though the defense may be different in certain fundamental ways (and could even see a coordinator switch of its own) and though players will continue to come and go, Tomlin will remain the one constant for the Steelers. There are no reasons strong enough to emerge in the next three years to warrant his ouster as the team's head coach.
A New Rivalry
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Rivalries can be born of many things in the NFL. There is proximity—it cannot be denied that among the Steelers' biggest rivals are their AFC North counterparts, the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns, even if all three teams aren't quite the competitive threats they have been in years past.
And then there are rivalries born of circumstance, such as the one brewing between the Steelers and the Patriots. Since Roethlisberger came aboard in Pittsburgh in 2004, the Steelers and Patriots have played each other 11 times including the playoffs, with the Steelers coming away victorious only three times. Most recently, Pittsburgh fell to New England in last year's AFC Championship Game and have at least one rematch set for 2017, in Week 15.
But the Patriots may not be Pittsburgh's greatest rival, whether in-division or out of it, in three years' time. Just as things are set to change for the Steelers, particularly at the quarterback position, the same can be said in New England. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is an unrestricted free agent in 2020 and may use that as an entry into retirement; it's possible his head coach, Bill Belichick, goes with him. That changes the face of their franchise, the state of the NFL and thus the relationship between the Patriots and the Steelers.
New rivalries will thus reveal themselves. It could be the AFC North's return to dominance as a division that ratchets back up the pressure on the Steelers from their nearest rivals. It could be the Jacksonville Jaguars solve their quarterback problems and emerge as one of the most all-around dominant squads in the league. Or it could be some surprise team that manages to build its roster and coaching staff in a way that transforms it into the next Steeler-like or Patriots-like dynasty.
But expect the Steelers to find another team to target as their new white whale, for the Patriots are likely to be a much different beast in three years.
Missing Le'Veon Bell
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Le'Veon Bell is currently leading the league in both rushing yards and carries, with 220 rushing attempts for 840 yards and five scores. He also has 40 receptions for 251 yards, bringing his total touches to 260 through nine games. A year ago, Bell had 261 total rushes on the year (as well as 75 additional receptions). To say he's Pittsburgh's bell-cow back may be an understatement.
But Bell's league-leading performance may prove only to be an audition to the 31 other teams in the league rather than a way for him to get a long-term deal from the Steelers. Bell is currently working off the one-year franchise tag, worth $12.12 million for 2017, and while he could get tagged again in the offseason (or given a new contract), it's still highly likely that he will be playing elsewhere in 2018.
And even if Bell does not move on right away, the Steelers aren't likely to keep him in such a featured role over the course of three more seasons. He's had too great a workload—1,128 carries and 267 receptions to date through four-and-a-half regular seasons and another 65 carries in the playoffs—and a pair of knee injuries work against him. Even though he will be under 30 years old in 2020, it's hard to say what will be left in his tank.
But regardless of when the Steelers find it fit to part ways with Bell, that doesn't mean they won't miss him. No player can have such an impact on an offense and not have his absence felt in significant ways. There are few backs of Bell's style and skill set in the NFL, and while the Steelers could hit the draft jackpot again in the course of the coming years, it seems more likely that they won't find Bell's true replacement. No matter when they end up moving on from Bell, the Steelers will still be feeling it in 2020.
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