Historical Comparison for Carson Wentz's Masterful Sophomore Season
Second-year quarterback Carson Wentz is dominating game in and game out while leading the Philadelphia Eagles to the NFL's best record, and it beckons an inquiry into how his sophomore season matches up with some quarterback greats.
Every team in the league is looking up at the high-flying Eagles, who sit at 7-1 thanks in large part to Wentz's brilliance. He's the league co-leader in touchdown passes, with 19, and only has five interceptions, nipping at the heels of MVP favorite Tom Brady before Week 8 with 3-1 odds to win the award, per Justin Hartling of OddsShark.
Wentz's 2017 season is quickly becoming historic. He became just the eighth quarterback in history with 17 or more touchdowns along with four picks or fewer through seven games and is the first Eagles QB since 1953 to post three successive games with three or more touchdown tosses.
He's made an NFL-record 540 completions through his first 24 games, and the projections for this season are record-breaking as well. Wentz is on pace for 4,200 yards, 38 touchdowns, nine interceptions and 400 rushing yards. No quarterback in NFL history has ever had such a season.
His superlative 2017 season has Eagles fans thinking they have an all-time great on their hands, so how does it match up so far against some of the greats' second seasons as starters? We picked a select six and pulled statistics from Pro Football Reference to compare them with Wentz. Philly fans will like the results.
Peyton Manning
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The Sheriff is regarded by most as one of the best quarterbacks in the game's history, and perhaps the greatest if you're asking those down south. In many respects, Peyton Manning's legend began during his sophomore campaign in 1999.
Following a rough 1998 rookie season, during which his Indianapolis Colts finished 3-13, Manning made one of the greatest single-season turnarounds by leading his Colts to a 13-3 record in 1999. His reputation of late-game heroics started here, as he posted six fourth-quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives.
Manning's 26-touchdown, 15-interception season earned him Pro Bowl honors. He carried his team to a first-round bye before being toppled in the divisional round by a Tennessee Titans team that came one yard shy of tying up Super Bowl XXXIV in the final seconds.
Like Wentz, Manning benefited in his sophomore campaign from a burly offensive line and a stellar run game. However, Manning only got sacked 14 times, while Wentz has been brought down 22 times in just eight games.
In terms of passing numbers, though, Wentz is on pace to shatter Manning's stats from 1999. He should easily surpass his touchdowns and finish well below the interceptions mark with a similar amount of yardage.
Most importantly, Wentz appears on track to lead his team to one of the league's best records, just like Manning did as a 23-year-old.
Tom Brady
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The most effective comparison that can be made to Wentz's second season may be to that of the man most likely to compete with him down the stretch for the NFL's MVP award. Arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history, Tom Brady is someone every young signal-caller wants to be mentioned alongside.
Brady's success began right away, as he took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe in 2001 and led the New England Patriots to their first Super Bowl—a feat he's repeated four times since. While his Patriots struggled during his second season at the helm, it wasn't due to any shortcomings under center.
Despite not making the Pro Bowl, Brady led the NFL in touchdown passes in 2002, with 28 scores against 14 interceptions. He surpassed his touchdown total from his first season as a starter by double digits, which Wentz looks certain to replicate.
One area where No. 12 lacked production as a second-year starter that Wentz is excelling at is deep throws. Brady's longest completion of the 2002 season went for just 49 yards. Wentz has five completions of 50 or more yards just halfway through the season.
Brady's strong stats and a 62.1 completion percentage didn't bear fruit for New England, who missed the playoffs with a 9-7 record. But his strong individual play left no doubt that his magical 2001 season wasn't a fluke and that the Patriots had a star quarterback on their hands who could lead them to many more championships.
In many ways, Brady's first and second seasons as a starter—a magical season followed by a tough year for his team filled with individual promise—are an inverse to Wentz's. With the Philly quarterback, we are seeing a strong individual campaign on a team mired in mediocrity followed by a magical season.
Aaron Rodgers
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Aaron Rodgers is something of an outlier on this list in many ways. A three-year backup behind Brett Favre, Rodgers' second season as a starting quarterback came when he was 26 and more of a veteran than practically any other quarterback great.
It's not surprising, then, that Rodgers had a masterful second season in 2009. He led his Green Bay Packers to an 11-5 record after going 6-10 in his first season as a starter, throwing 30 touchdowns with just seven interceptions. Rodgers threw for 4,434 yards, the second-highest total of an illustrious career.
Wentz won't be able to match Rodgers' record of being the only quarterback to throw for 4,000-plus yards in each of his first two seasons starting, but he matches up in other ways. Like Rodgers, he's aiming for a massive turnaround in his team's record from Year 1. With 12 touchdowns in the final eight games, he would surpass Rodgers' touchdowns mark, and he could post a better touchdown-to-interception ratio if he takes great care of the ball down the stretch.
One disappointing similarity between the quarterbacks' sophomore campaigns lies in sack rate. Rodgers got sacked a whopping 50 times in 2009, and Wentz is on pace to be brought down 44 times.
However, Rodgers has consistently put up incredible passer ratings despite offensive-line struggles and sack proficiency. This is Rodgers' ninth season with a passer rating above 100, and Wentz sits on a 101.6 rating.
The way the two-time NFL MVP rips deep passes with precision, extends plays with a magician's touch and orchestrates his offense is a close reflection to how Wentz has played in 2017. If his career follows suit, the Eagles have a lot of great years ahead.
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Drew Brees
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While Wentz's second year compares well to those of many greats, there is one elite quarterback's sophomore season the Philly man's 2017 simply blows out of the water.
Time has yet to tell whether Drew Brees belongs on a list of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, but there's no doubting he's one of the best in today's game. That's no thanks to his nightmarish 2003 season. After a promising rookie campaign, Brees struggled mightily as a second-year starter.
He threw 11 touchdowns with 15 interceptions in 2003, and his 4.2 percent ratio of interceptions to pass attempts represents the worst in his career. He went just 2-9 as a starter before the then-San Diego Chargers replaced him with Doug Flutie.
It's important to note how things developed from there. The Chargers drafted Philip Rivers in the 2004 draft, and Brees followed that up by going 11-4 with 27 touchdowns and seven picks. Rivers became the guy in San Diego in 2006 but has taken the Chargers to just one AFC Championship Game since. Brees went to New Orleans, where he's delivered a Super Bowl and become one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time statistically.
If Wentz's sophomore season involved the types of struggles seen by Brees in 2003, perhaps this would be a good indication to remain patient and not find an immediate replacement. Brees is a perfect example that greatness often involves growing pains.
Fortunately for the Eagles, they don't have to worry about that.
Brett Favre
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To the depths of history we go. After comparing Wentz's sophomore campaign to the four best modern-day quarterbacks, let's go back in our NFL history books to 1993.
Following a rookie trade from the Atlanta Falcons to the Green Bay Packers and a promising first year as a starter, Brett Favre started all 16 games for the Packers in 1993, quickly becoming one of the league's most entertaining gunslingers. His team finished 9-7, but Favre made his second Pro Bowl in as many seasons.
Then a 24-year-old, Favre's tendency to throw interceptions began to take shape. He tossed just 19 touchdowns, as many as Wentz has in eight games, against 24 picks, a number he would surpass only once more in his final 17 seasons.
Despite a growing knack for throwing the ball to the other team, Favre's heroics were on full display as a youngster. He led four fourth-quarter comebacks and brought his wild-card Packers to the divisional round of the playoffs.
The resulting success of Favre after 1993 is something Wentz can only dream of replicating. He threw for 30-plus touchdowns in each of the next five seasons and notched 11-win records in eight of his next 11 seasons.
After some issues with interceptions as a rookie, Wentz doesn't want to follow down the same path of smashing NFL interception records that Favre took. But if it comes with the amount of team success seen by the Packers through the Favre era, it could be a worthwhile trade-off.
Dan Marino
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We saved the best for last—in more ways than one.
Dan Marino's 1984 season didn't only go down as by far the best sophomore campaign for a quarterback, but it's also one that many still believe is the greatest quarterback season in league history. Marino's historic 1984 saw him throw 48 touchdown passes and 5,084 yards, both single-season records that took at least 20 years to be broken.
The Miami Dolphins went 14-2 that season behind Marino's heroic play, losing the Super Bowl to the San Francisco 49ers. Marino never came close to replicating his success of 1984 and never got as good of a chance at winning a ring in his final 15 seasons.
Wentz's 2017 stats won't match up to Marino's historic MVP campaign, and that's just fine. However, his team's record is on pace. At 7-1, Wentz's Eagles could match the 14-2 season Marino's Dolphins notched if they post an identical record down the stretch.
The simple fact that any portion of Wentz's second season can be compared to Marino's 1984 season should be enough to make Eagles fans giddy, even if it's not in sheer individual stats.
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