Expert Predictions for Week 7 in College Football
A pair of AP Top 10 teams suffered losses in Week 6, but was that just a precursor for complete and utter chaos in Week 7?
There aren't any games this week that pit ranked teams against one another. But if you've been following this sport for more than five minutes, you probably know that things tend to go bonkers when all the ranked teams are supposed to win.
Also, you can pretty much always count on the Red River Rivalry supplying a fair amount of drama and entertainment.
Though this has all the makings of a supremely unpredictable week, our college football experts—Matt Hayes, David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Brad Shepard and Greg Wallace—offered up predictions on nine of the hottest burning questions of the week, including:
- Will Michigan or Oklahoma lose a second straight game?
- Will there still be four undefeated Group of Five teams after this weekend?
- What is Josh Rosen going to do to Arizona's defense?
- And how many Top 25 teams go down?
Our experts are on the case to let you know.
Does Either AP Top 10 Team Suffer a Road Loss Friday Night?
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Matt Hayes (Follow @MattHayesCFB)
No chance in hell, because Cal and Boston College can't score enough to scare Washington State and Clemson. I've never understood the idea of elite teams struggling on the road. If you're truly one of the top 10 teams in the nation, you thrive in that environment.
Oklahoma lost at home to Iowa State last week. Clemson lost at home last year to Pitt. Alabama lost at home two years ago to Ole Miss. Big upsets happen, more times than not, at home. You're not as crisp and focused, and fundamentals slip. And you think you can just turn it on and win—only it doesn’t always work that way.
David Kenyon (Follow @Kenyon19_BR)
No, but both Clemson and Washington State being on the road suggest it will be tight early before the superior team creates some separation after halftime. And even if Kelly Bryant isn't completely healthy (he seems to be), Clemson shouldn't have much trouble slowing down Syracuse.
Adam Kramer (Follow @KegsnEggs)
I don't believe either team will lose, but I could see one (or both) being supremely weird. The Carrier Dome is typically good for one weird game per season, and perhaps this is the one. But with a bye coming up for Clemson, this feels like a game in which it will happily and eventually grind Syracuse down.
I could see Cal pushing Washington State a little further, though. The last three weeks have not been great, although being back at home should help the Golden Bears immensely. While I won't fully commit to the upset, I see a cover in Cal's future (Wazzu is favored by 15, per Odds Shark).
Kerry Miller (Follow @kerrancejames)
As long as Kelly Bryant and Luke Falk are healthy enough to take all of the snaps at QB until these games are out of reach, not a chance. Syracuse and California are both a good deal better than virtually anyone was expecting, but they aren't the teams that further shake up the CFP picture. Of course, no one thought Iowa State would beat Oklahoma last week, either, so stranger things have happened.
Brad Shepard (Follow @Brad_Shepard)
I have a hard time thinking either game will be close, much less that either Clemson or Washington State will lose.
Thankfully for the Tigers, Dabo thinks Kelly Bryant will be "ready to go," per the Associated Press (via ESPN.com), meaning everything will go as expected for Clemson. There are just too many weapons on both sides of the ball for Syracuse to contend with. Dino Babers has that program heading in the right direction, but this one won't be pretty.
As far as the Wazzu game, Cal was exposed in road trips at Oregon and Washington in the past two weeks, and they'll face a team I believe is better than either of those this week. Mike Leach's team will win by at least three scores.
Greg Wallace (Follow @gc_wallace)
Friday night has seemingly become the new Thursday night. With the NFL staking out Thursday turf, Friday's games have become more interesting, and adding #Pac12AfterDark on a regular basis doesn't hurt. Clemson wasn't slowed at Virginia Tech or Louisville and should handle an improved Syracuse team easily.
No. 8 Washington State looks like a surprisingly complete Pac-12 power, with some nasty defense to go with a potent passing attack. Cal is allowing 37.6 points per game to Pac-12 foes and 264 passing yards per game overall. I don't think the Cougs' train slows down in Berkeley this week.
Is Oregon the Team That Finally Holds Bryce Love Under 150 Yards?
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Matt Hayes
This is a joke, right? Oregon's run-defense numbers look solid because the Ducks haven't played a team that can line up and blow them off the line of scrimmage. Enter, Stanford. Not only will Bryce Love get 150, he'll go over 200 for the third time in four games.
David Kenyon
The good news: Oregon has the No. 10 run defense in the country! The bad news: Oregon has played one team (Nebraska) ranked higher than 116th in yards per carry. Yes, that means the Ducks contributed to those poor standings, but it also shows they haven't really been challenged. Love gets his buck-fifty again.
Adam Kramer
Jim Leavitt is an absolute wizard. Seriously. Oregon's new defensive coordinator has transformed a team that gave up more than 5.5 yards per carry a season ago into one of the nation's best run defenses this year. Give him a raise and an extension, Oregon. What a hire.
That being said...no. Bryce Love will still bowling-ball his way to 150 yards. It might take 35 carries, and he'll probably get that if that's what it takes, but he will get there. That man, it turns out, is also a wizard. This just felt like a good time to appreciate both.
Kerry Miller
Yes, but only by the slimmest of margins, and only because Oregon eats up so much clock with its own rushing attack that Love maybe only gets 15-18 carries against what has surprisingly been a solid run defense. Stanford wins the game and Love gets 125 yards thanks in large part to one rush of at least 40, but the 150 streak comes to an end.
Brad Shepard
As awful as the Ducks were on defense a season ago, to be 10th in anything on that side of the ball—much less run defense—in the nation is a major feather in Jim Leavitt's cap as he tries to help turn the program around. But a closer look at the Ducks' opponents show they played an FCS team (Southern Utah), Nebraska, Wyoming, Arizona State, Cal and Washington State, each of which is awful running the ball. They haven't played a runner anywhere near Love's ilk. He will mow through this defense.
Greg Wallace
Bryce Love has filled Christian McCaffrey's shoes capably with big-play ability, rushing for 1,240 yards and nine scores. However, he does meet a stiff test in Oregon. The Ducks allow opposing foes only 93.7 rushing yards per game. Love is electric, but he's a chunk-play back. I think he gets his 100 yards, but not 150 this week.
Do All 4 Ranked Group of Five Teams Remain Undefeated?
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Matt Hayes
For the most part, it looks like a fairly uneventful weekend for the Group of Five. Unless, that is, Boise State figures out how to protect quarterback Brett Rypien. Backup QB Montell Cozart is a fun story: a graduate transfer who never won at Kansas but will get to experience a bowl game for the first time at Boise State. But the Broncos go when Rypien is protected and has time to make accurate intermediate and deep throws—the centerpieces of the offense. The offensive line is Boise State’s biggest issue now, not Rypien.
David Kenyon
South Florida and Central Florida both play at home against average or worse teams, so yes and yes there. San Diego State has a tougher task with Boise State, but the Aztecs can lean on their defense in a contested finish. Navy travels to face a potentially explosive Memphis team, but the Tigers can't stop the run. Wins all around.
Adam Kramer
UCF, which is far and away the best of the group, should have no issues with an East Carolina team that has suddenly shipwrecked. (Side note: I know it's obvious, but go hire Scott Frost, Nebraska. You're welcome.) South Florida will be fine against Cincinnati, too.
I do believe that San Diego State will get a better version of Boise State than we've seen for much of the year, but I'll take the Aztecs tight. And although Navy is technically ranked and Memphis is not, the Tigers will be favored and win, unseating the nation's No. 25 team in the AP poll. It would not shock me to see Memphis assume that role the following week.
Kerry Miller
UCF and South Florida will beat East Carolina and Cincinnati by about a billion combined points, but I have serious doubts that both San Diego State and Navy will win their games. My guess is they both come down to the wire, with the Aztecs beating Boise State and the Midshipmen losing to Memphis. But if they're both coin flips, that means there's a 75 percent chance at least one of them will lose.
Brad Shepard
San Diego State shouldn't take Boise State lightly, but the Aztecs are the better football team and will pull out a close win. But the answer is still no. Navy is going to have a good season, but the Midshipmen can't keep up with Memphis and their prolific quarterback, Riley Ferguson, especially in the Liberty Bowl. This is the first week Navy entered the polls, and it will be a short stay. There are just too many weapons for Memphis.
Greg Wallace
Of the four ranked Group of Five teams left in FBS, three are in the American Athletic Conference and they’re all on the road this week. South Florida should have no issues with a rebuilding Cincinnati team, and Central Florida will roll a bad East Carolina crew. San Diego State at Boise is intriguing, but the Broncos aren't up to their usual caliber.
I think Navy has the best chance of falling. The Midshipmen blew a 21-point second-half lead before rallying past Air Force 48-45, and Memphis has a prolific passing game. I think the Tigers surprise Navy at the Liberty Bowl, 37-31.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Which SEC Game Ends Up Being the Most Entertaining?
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Matt Hayes
I don't know if a coach losing his job because of his team's performance is entertaining, but Butch Jones better hope his struggling Tennessee team finds a way to beat South Carolina. If the Vols lose, Jones may not make it to Monday before getting fired.
David Kenyon
"Most entertaining" and "best" are two very different questions. Vanderbilt, after a sensational start, isn't playing much defense anymore. Ole Miss should be able to hang 30 points on the 'Dores, but I'm not expecting the Rebels to keep Vandy below 24. Granted, it won't have many eyeballs because Auburn/LSU kicks at the same time.
Adam Kramer
I suppose this depends on what you value as entertaining. If you're into watching an angry Nick Saban team take out last week's frustration on Bret Bielema and his $4 billion (exaggerated, obviously) buyout, Arkansas-Alabama is for you. But if you're looking for fun and weird, I'd look in two other places.
I believe LSU-Auburn will be extremely close. It will probably have an ugly-ish feel to it, but it will still be fun and tense. I also just have a feeling that Tennessee and South Carolina will dazzle us with touchdowns, ineptitude, trash cans, broken plays and more. Seriously, the ingredients are here for this to be (strangely) must-see.
Kerry Miller
Auburn vs. LSU is certainly the most intriguing, but I've got to go with Texas A&M vs. Florida for most entertaining. It might be because of a bunch of bone-headed plays or it might be because of some incredible defensive/special teams moments, but let's just say the Aggies and Gators have not been lacking for drama this season. Something about this game is going to be nuts.
Brad Shepard
Boy, this season has been an abomination when it comes to being competitive in that league, huh? It's Alabama and Georgia and everybody else. When you get a close one, it's usually a snorefest like LSU-Florida last week.
From an actual competitive standpoint between two pretty good teams, I'm going to go with Auburn-LSU. The Bayou Bengals are poorly coached but supremely talented, so this isn't necessarily a lock for AU. If last week helped ease some of the tensions for the team with a key road win in the Swamp, they may play looser this week. The northernmost Tigers still win, though.
Greg Wallace
There are several interesting candidates on this week's SEC slate, with South Carolina potentially trying to run another Tennessee coach out of town and Texas A&M visiting the Swamp. But the best game will be a battle of Tigers when Auburn travels to LSU.
Auburn has improved significantly over the season’s first half, and LSU will be fired up and against the collective ropes in the SEC West standings, unable to afford another loss. If standout tailback Derrius Guice is healthy for LSU, this could be a fun offensive game and a pitched battle in Baton Rouge.
Will Michigan And/or Oklahoma Suffer a 2nd Consecutive Loss?
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Matt Hayes
Michigan will not lose to Indiana. Not with Wilton Speight at quarterback—not with John O'Korn. The defense is simply too good and will create short fields for the offense. Oklahoma, on the other hand, should be refocused after last week's loss to Iowa State. But don't overlook this: The Sooners have given up 72 points in their last two games against Baylor and Iowa State. What was a strength after a Week 2 win at Ohio State, now looks like a clear liability.
David Kenyon
Though I'm saying no, Michigan seems destined for another close finish. Indiana basically shut down John O'Korn in his lone start last year, and the Hoosiers have typically played well defensively this season. Oklahoma doesn't need extra motivation going into the rivalry clash with Texas, but two straight dispirited performances would be surprising.
Adam Kramer
Both teams can lose. I love the way Texas' defense is playing, but I believe Baker Mayfield and Co. rally after that loss against Iowa State. I think Michigan might be pushed a little closer at Indiana, a place that has pushed a smattering of quality Big Ten teams over the last few seasons. (See: Ohio State.) As much as I went back-and-forth on this one, I'll say Michigan sneaks by with a win, although the Hoosiers keep it extremely close throughout.
Kerry Miller
I don't feel great about either team right now, but it is a little interesting that you could put the Wolverines and Sooners in a two-team teaser and basically get even odds on both of them winning as pick'ems. I feel much better about the Sooners winning, because Baker Mayfield is probably going to tear that Texas defense to shreds. But I was down on the Wolverines before the season began, and their offense has done nothing to alter that stance. I could definitely see them losing at Indiana.
Brad Shepard
Michigan won't lose to Indiana, even though there are some deep-rooted offensive issues with which Jim Harbaugh must deal in a hurry. The more intriguing game is the Red River Rivalry. Texas isn't in midseason form yet, but the Longhorns are getting better under Tom Herman, and this could be a dangerous place for Oklahoma, especially after it may have got caught looking ahead last week. Since emotions will run high, I'm going with the Sooners, but this will not be easy.
Greg Wallace
Both Michigan and Oklahoma tumbled double-digit spots in the polls this week after surprising defeats to Michigan State and Iowa State, respectively. The Wolverines have a good chance to get well at Indiana, which allowed an average of 47 points in losses to Penn State and Ohio State. John O'Korn should be more comfortable at QB this week. The Red River Showdown has a history of surprising scores, and Texas is feisty at 3-2, but Baker Mayfield and the Sooners will be angry. If Texas plays D like it did against Kansas State, OU will roll easily.
Does Josh Rosen Maintain His Torrid Pace for Another Week?
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Matt Hayes
I'm not sure anyone this season will slow down Rosen. The Bruins might score 50 on Arizona. The big problem: The UCLA defense might give up 51. The Bruins struggle against dual-threat quarterbacks, and Arizona QB Khalil Tate is coming off a game in which he ran for 327 yards and—maybe as impressive—completed 12 of 13 passes without a mistake. Wildcats coach Rich Rodriguez may have finally found another Pat White in the desert.
David Kenyon
Yes. Partly because Arizona's defense is pretty bad, and partly because UCLA's defense is horri-bad. Really, the Bruins don't give Rosen an option other than "throw for 350 yards and four touchdowns." The hot streak will end in a couple weeks at Washington, but Rosen still has two more explosive games ahead.
Adam Kramer
Oh, goodness, yes. Arizona-UCLA might take five hours to finish. There will long drives and touchdowns, and I'll say at least four of those come from Rosen. It's strange that Rosen, maybe the most outspoken and talked-about player in college football, somehow feels almost underrated given how good he has been. Although I actually think Arizona still has a great chance to win the game, Rosen will be brilliant once more. A 400-yard passing game wouldn't shock me in the least.
Kerry Miller
Here's the deal with Rosen: He's got a great arm, he's got a coach who isn't afraid to let him use it, he's got big targets with good hands and he's got a defense that probably couldn't stop a one-legged man from rushing for 100 yards.
Factor in a remaining schedule predominantly consisting of teams that aren't exactly renowned for their ability to defend the pass and he's in the perfect position to rack up 5,000 yards. If anything, against Arizona he might increase his already incredible season average for passing yards per game.
Brad Shepard
Seeing Arizona's secondary is a salve for any quarterback's ailments. The Wildcats are allowing more than 256 passing yards per game. So, it's almost a given Rosen is going to eclipse 300 yards again and toss a crooked number of touchdown passes. At this point, Bruins offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch is just saying, "Screw it, I've got the best QB in the country. Ride him." Why not? Nobody has stopped him yet. The Wildcats won't, either.
Greg Wallace
UCLA has been mediocre at best this fall, but Josh Rosen has been outstanding, averaging 427 passing yards per game. Arizona has shown some fight for Rich Rodriguez at 3-2, but the Wildcats defense is allowing 411 yards per game, 256 of those through the air. Rosen will toy with Arizona's secondary, and he'll need all the yardage and points he can get, throwing for 400-plus in a 45-37 UCLA win.
Which Team Pulls Off the Most Surprising Upset of the Week?
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Matt Hayes
I'm going with Purdue over Wisconsin. Remember what I said earlier about teams losing at home? Here's a perfect example. The Badgers have started slowly a couple of times this season, and if they start slow against this Purdue offense, it won't be as easy getting those points back against an offense that will continue to score.
David Kenyon
Middle Tennessee is a 6.5-point favorite at UAB, but the Blue Raiders have been playing without Brent Stockstill and Richie James. They're still questionable for this weekend. If the quarterback-receiver duo isn't back for MTSU, the upstart Blazers will move one win closer to bowl eligibility.
Adam Kramer
Kansas State is going to beat TCU. By point-spread standards, there might be larger upsets on the card. But by the optics of it all and overall significance, this would be a sizable development for the Big 12 and the playoff picture as a whole. I know K-State is coming off a tough loss to Texas, but I still like this team a great deal. There's also the Manhattan factor—a place that was seemingly constructed for games like this. They're good for an upset there once every five games or so. I just feel like it's coming this week.
Kerry Miller
I have become the "close but no cigar" king of this question. I had Syracuse knocking off NC State two weeks ago and the Orange lost by one possession. I said Air Force over Navy last week, and the Midshipmen scored a TD with 15 seconds left to thwart that one. But this is my week to finally get it right. Give me UAB as a 6.5-point underdog against Middle Tennessee. It's not a huge spread, but I'm not trying to blindly throw darts into the wind. Even if Brent Stockstill and Richie James play for the Blue Raiders for the first time in a month, the Blazers are rolling.
Brad Shepard
Maybe it's because I've pegged him as one of my two favorite [realistic] candidates to be Tennessee's next head coach, but I'm in love with what Jeff Brohm is doing at Purdue. That guy has been a stud X's and O's coach for a while now; he's just doing it on a bigger stage. Last week, he outcoached P.J. Fleck and beat a Minnesota team he probably wasn't supposed to. It gets tougher this week with the Boilermakers traveling to Camp Randall. But something about this game just feels like Purdue scores enough to get it done. Maybe that's crazy, but I'll take the Boilermakers in a shocker.
Greg Wallace
No. 6 TCU has exceeded expectations by becoming the last unbeaten team left in the Big 12, which is certainly a surprise. However, the Horned Frogs looked vulnerable in playing West Virginia to the wire before escaping with a 31-24 win. I think Kansas State is tougher than it has shown, and playing in Manhattan will be difficult for Kenny Hill and Co. I predict K-State pulls off a 31-27 upset.
Which Week 7 Game Has the Most Total Points Scored?
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Matt Hayes
You could ask this question every week, and I'm zeroing in on two things every time: the Big 12 and who plays Texas Tech. And since I've already highlighted what's going to happen in the Arizona-UCLA game (that's where the most points will be scored), next up is Texas Tech vs. West Virginia. Combined points: ballpark it at 84.
David Kenyon
Any game involving UCF right now must be considered. That offense is cruising. But the Knights will have too much defense for East Carolina to handle, so I'll go with UCLA and Arizona in the battle of the "efenses." (Ha, no D, right, guys? Guys?)
Adam Kramer
This one is extremely tough, and it came down to two games. Arizona and UCLA seem destined to score more than 80 points, and there is nothing wrong with this answer. Did you see the game Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate just had? This could be fun.
But I will instead side with Texas Tech-West Virginia. While both defenses have had their moments this year, I feel like this is going to be a classic Big 12 game with Michael Bay football explosions and tons of points. While I will stick with that selection, don't sleep on Navy-Memphis, either. There could be a bunch scored there.
Kerry Miller
The smart money is probably on Texas Tech vs. West Virginia because both teams have high-powered offenses and lackluster defenses. It has all the signs of a 45-42 type of barnburner. (Really, pick any Big 12 game and there's a decent chance you'll be right.)
However, give me Georgia vs. Missouri. Granted, in order for this to happen, the Tigers will need to score at least a couple of times against Georgia's incredible defense, but I could see this being a 68-24 type of blowout with 90-100 total points.
Brad Shepard
The easy answer here is Texas Tech and West Virginia, but, again, I've fallen victim to guaranteeing overs in games everybody thinks will be scorefests. There will still be 75 combined points there, but I think the East Carolina-Central Florida game will be higher. The Knights are the nation's top scoring offense, and ECU is atrocious on defense. It's almost a guarantee UCF scores 55 points. I think the final score here is going to be something like 63-28.
Greg Wallace
No. 24 Texas Tech travels to West Virginia in a battle of pass-happy Air Raid offenses. Combined, the Big 12 teams average 90.6 points per game, and both are prolific through the air. WVU's Will Grier and Texas Tech's Nic Shimonek can both pass the ball, and neither team is especially good at stopping the pass. Expect an 85-point total shootout in Morgantown.
In Total, How Many AP Top 25 Teams Lose This Week?
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Matt Hayes
Wisconsin and Texas Tech for starters, and another dangerous spot in a classic letdown game: Michigan State at Minnesota. It's a night kickoff, and Michigan State is coming off a huge rivalry win and playing a solid Minnesota team disappointed by its effort the week before (31-17 loss to Purdue). It's almost a lead-pipe lock.
David Kenyon
Three, and I'm most confident in West Virginia at home over Texas Tech. Otherwise, there are plenty of matchups to monitor. TCU (at Kansas State), Auburn (at LSU), Michigan (at Indiana) and Michigan State (at Minnesota) should have all four-quarter fights on the road. Miami must also be careful with Georgia Tech after a physically and emotionally demanding win at Florida State.
Adam Kramer
This could be a shake-up week. Not near the top, where the best teams should hold serve, but near the middle and bottom of the rankings. I'll go with five as my final answer. Navy, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Kansas State and Miami will all fall.
There are other teams that fit this mold—Michigan, Oklahoma and Auburn could very well come out losers as well. But ultimately, I see five losses in the Top 25 with opportunities for more. While the slate of games isn’t superb on paper, I think it could make up for it in entertainment.
Kerry Miller
I'm going with four. No. 24 Texas Tech at West Virginia and No. 25 Navy at Memphis are the obvious candidates, and I can't say I would be shocked if Boise State upsets No. 19 San Diego State. But there's also a wild card out there somewhere. Maybe it's Kansas State over No. 6 TCU. Perhaps it's Georgia Tech over No. 11 Miami. But with both Oklahoma and Michigan suffering losses last week, the floodgates have been opened. Chaos is coming.
Brad Shepard
Texas Tech is going to lose to West Virginia, Purdue will shock the world at Camp Randall, Georgia Tech hands Miami its first loss of the season and Memphis does the same to Navy, so that's four. That seems too low, but it's a relatively skinny slate in CFB this week. Really, we're stretching it a little to give wins to the Boilermakers and Yellow Jackets, but it's cozy out here on this limb.
Greg Wallace
This is an odd week of college football, as there are no matchups pitting AP Top 25 teams. Sometimes, these are the weeks that wind up being the most fun to watch, and hopefully that is the case. There are some teams near the bottom of the Top 25 (Navy, Texas Tech, Michigan State) that face potentially difficult matchups, and I will say that there will be some turnover from No. 20 on. I think that four Top 25 teams will fall.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
